Preseason Expectations
Grade: C
Back during Big Ten Media Days in July, Cleveland.com published their predicted finish for the Big Ten, based on a survey of 24 voters, including one beat writer for each team:
1. Penn State (11 first-place votes)
2. Ohio State (11)
3. Oregon (2)
4. Illinois
5. Michigan (1)
6. Indiana
7. Iowa
8. Nebraska
9. USC
10. Washington
11. Minnesota
12. Wisconsin
13. Michigan State
13. Rutgers
15. UCLA
16. Maryland
17. Northwestern
18. Purdue
And here are the actual standings from the end of the regular season:
1. Indiana (13-0 overall, 9-0 B1G)
1. Ohio State (12-1, 9-0)
3. Oregon (11-1, 8-1)
4. USC (9-3, 7-2)
4. Michigan (9-3, 7-2)
6. Iowa (8-4, 6-3)
7. Washington (8-4, 5-4)
7. Illinois (8-4, 5-4)
7. Minnesota (7-5, 5-4)
10. Nebraska (7-5, 4-5)
10. Northwestern (6-6, 4-5)
12. UCLA (3-9, 3-6)
12. Penn State (6-6, 3-6)
14. Rutgers (5-7, 2-7)
14. Wisconsin (4-8, 2-7)
16. Michigan State (4-8, 1-8)
16. Maryland (4-8, 1-8)
18. Purdue (2-10, 0-9)
The Gophers outperformed media expectations, finishing in the upper half of the Big Ten for the second straight year. The oddsmakers’ preseason over/under for Minnesota was 6.5 wins.
Conversely, expectations were higher among our readers, as 85% of respondents to our preseason poll predicted the Gophers would win eight or more regular season games.
From our staff predictions, please join me in giving mowe0018 a standing ovation. Not only did he predict the Gophers would finish 7-5, but he predicted the correct outcome for all 12 regular season games.
Perhaps more of our staff should have taken note of his modest prediction, as zipsofakron predicted an 8-4 record and the rest of us predicted a finish of 9-3 or better. So much for that!
The individual game predictions that stand out:
- 8 of 9 predicted a win over Cal
- 7 of 9 predicted a win over Nebraska
- 6 of 9 predicted a win over Iowa
- 6 of 9 predicted a win over Michigan State
- 8 of 9 predicted a win over Northwestern
Offense
Grade: D
It was a rebuilding year on offense for the Gophers, as Minnesota needed to replace their starting quarterback, their top two pass catchers, and four starters on the offensive line.
I’ll start with the quarterback position, which was the bright spot on offense this season. Redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey had a solid first season under center, completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 2,382 yards with 18 passing touchdowns and six interceptions (half of which came in one game). The future is bright with Lindsey at quarterback, but the message was clear this season: He needs more help.
The offensive line never found its footing, leaving the Gophers’ ground game stuck in the mud. Minnesota ran into a bit of bad injury luck with running backs Darius Taylor and A.J. Turner, but that is no excuse for ranking 126th nationally in rushing offense, averaging 103.2 rushing yards per game. Without a consistent rushing attack, the offense became one-dimensional, putting more pressure on Lindsey to make plays.
The Gophers needed more out of their wide receivers, who frequently struggled to create separation or make contested catches in traffic. Former Miami (Ohio) transfer Javon Tracy was a bright spot, hauling in 37 receptions for 454 yards and six touchdowns. Redshirt freshman Jalen Smith flashed potential early, then had a breakout game in the Rate Bowl with six receptions for 64 yards and two touchdowns.
By season’s end, offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh’s unit ranked 127th nationally in total offense and 98th in scoring offense, averaging 23 points per game. That’s not good enough. Not even close.
Defense
Grade: C-
Coming into this season, the Gophers needed to replace six starters on defense: Linebacker Cody Lindenberg, defensive end Jah Joyner, rush end Danny Striggow, nickel back Jack Henderson, and cornerbacks Justin Walley and Ethan Robinson. But the most impactful departure was off the field, as defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman signed a new two-year contract with Minnesota in December, then changed his mind a month later and left to take the same position at Miami (Fl.) in January.
Fleck opted to promote from within, handing the reins to safeties coach Danny Collins, who started his coaching career as a defensive graduate assistant at Western Michigan before following Fleck to Minnesota.
In Collins’ first season as defensive coordinator, the Gophers ranked 31st in run defense (121.1 rushing yards allowed per game), 52nd in pass defense (210.5 passing yards allowed per game), and 51st in scoring defense (22.9 points allowed per game). Those may not seem like terrible numbers until you consider that only three of Minnesota’s opponents finished the regular season ranked in the Top 75 in total offense.
Those three teams: Oregon (13th), Ohio State (24th), and Rutgers (43rd).
It was Minnesota’s performance against lesser competition that proved most frustrating.
Against Northwestern (93rd), the Gophers surrendered 525 yards of total offense and 38 points.
Against Michigan State (97th), the Gophers surrendered 467 yards of total offense and 20 points
Against Purdue (100th), the Gophers surrendered 456 yards of total offense and 20 points.
Of course, two of those games were wins for Minnesota, so maybe I shouldn’t be complaining. But even if the result was ultimately a positive for the Gophers, the process was cause for concern.
Two position groups, in particular, were glaring problems for the Gopher defense this season.
The defensive line was not physical enough, and the pass rush all but disappeared in all five of their losses. Defensive end Anthony Smith led the Big Ten in sacks with 12.5, but his teammates on the defensive line rarely capitalized on the extra attention he received from opposing offenses. Minnesota defensive linemen averaged less than a sack per game in the Gophers’ five losses this season.
Fleck seems to have assigned much of the blame for their performance to defensive line coach Dennis Cottin-Carter, who was fired in early December after only one season as the position coach.
Outside of Iowa transfer John Nestor — who had his own highs and lows throughout the season — Minnesota was simply not good enough at cornerback, with both Za’Quan Bryan and Mike Gerald struggling. The Gophers even tried moving former TCU transfer Jai’Onte McMillan to cornerback, with mixed results.
I’m going with a C- grade for this unit because it was good enough to win seven games, but their performance in losses (and even in some of their wins) makes me seriously question whether Collins is fit for the job.
Special Teams
Grade: C-
No kicker in the Big Ten missed more field goal attempts this season than Brady Denaburg. The Syracuse transfer was 14-of-21 (66.7%) on field goal attempts, ranking 14th in the conference in field goal percentage. Worst of all, Denaburg was 2-of-7 on attempts of 40 yards or more.
Prior to allowing a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the bowl game, Minnesota had only allowed 174 kickoff return yards on 11 returns for an average of 15 yards allowed per return. That would have put them in the Top 15 nationally. Unfortunately, their bowl game blunder sent them tumbling to 105th.
Koi Perich did not become the game-changing returner Gopher fans were hoping for. To be fair, even though he never found the end zone, he ranked second in the Big Ten in kickoff return average (26.3 yards per return). But the Gophers’ punt return unit was abysmal, as Perich averaged 6.6 yards per return on 18 returns.
If there was a bright spot on special teams, it was first-year starting punter Tom Weston. He led the Big Ten with 23 punts downed inside the 20-yard line, and finished second in the conference with 15 punts of 50+ yards.
