We’re not all that far away from the beginning of training camp, and I hope everyone’s enjoyed their quiet late spring and summer months. The Atlanta Falcons are going to be ramping up soon, and with that will come our own level of investment ramping up to heights that will be partially determined by just how good this team looks in August.
If I may try to frame up this season well before it begins, though, I’d say we should keep in mind that whether this year brings playoffs or seven wins, a Michael
Penix Jr. renaissance or a Tua Tagovailoa spectacular, fantastic play or frustration, 2026 is about one word. Progress.
The Falcons have been stuck in neutral for close to a decade now. They only truly bottomed out one year—that’d be 2020, when they started 0-5 and finished 4-12 while firing Dan Quinn and Thomas Dimitroff along the way—but have gone either 7-9, 8-8, or 8-9 in seven other seasons since they last pulled together a winning campaign. The roster has changed, the coaching staff has changed, the front office has changed, but what the Falcons have really excelled at since 2018 is milling about aimlessly. They never hit rock bottom, but they also never got particularly far off the ground over the course of all those campaigns.
But as we look ahead, let’s not forget the way the last three regimes stagnated quickly. Dan Quinn and Thomas Dimitroff’s Falcons were great in his second season, good in his third, and mediocre-to-bad for three straight seasons. Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot’s Falcons stayed mediocre after the team seemingly squeezed some real juice out of a depleted roster in 2021. Raheem Morris and Fontenot’s Falcons made splashy moves and ended up under .500 regardless. Those teams flickered dimly because the foundations they were built on poor decisions and shaky foundations, with stars who had to endure instability and incompetence just to drag this team to sevenish wins. This new regime will be justly judged not just on what they do year one, but what comes out of year one, and how sturdy the foundation and the strategy both seem to be and ultimately are.
I don’t expect Kevin Stefanski, Ian Cunningham, and Matt Ryan to be miracle workers. I don’t think this team has the talent base, top to bottom, of a Super Bowl-contending team. I think competent quarterback play and competent coaching could have them pushing for a wild card slot or (unfortunately, a likely to be less impressive) NFC South title, especially given the deep uncertainty swirling around the division. But what I’m ultimately looking for is a sign that this franchise is moving away from the morass of mediocrity we Falcons fans have become used to and toward a future where Atlanta football matters again. I want signs the plan is working, that the pieces this new regime has put together show the brain trust will know what they’re doing with a full complement of draft picks in 2027 and plenty of cap space, and a sense that the young talent is developing instead of foundering. I want signs of thoughtful building, real talent, and a rudder for a ship that long ago forgot what it even meant to have a rudder.
That could mean that a healthy Penix has improved footwork and accuracy that unlocks his potential, the kind of progress that sets the Falcons up to not have to fret about quarterback. It may mean that Jalon Walker goes from promising rookie to true star, or that rookies like Avieon Terrell hit the ground running and start in a defense teeming with young talent delivering on potential. It may mean Kyle Pitts is finally featured, that Jahan Dotson becomes the starting-caliber wide receiver his pre-draft promise indicated he could be, or that the Falcons stop burning timeouts at the worst time and taking dumb penalties when they are least welcome. It could mean that the moves to fill out the roster in August or to patch a hole opened by injury right after cuts are savvy instead of exciting and then ultimately disappointing. What we’re looking for is progress in all its facets, from performance to planning to development to dealing with adversity. For a team that has struggled off the field and on the field for years, every scrap of “these guys know what they’re doing” and “they just look better than Team X” will be water in a dry, dry desert.
In the weeks ahead, we’ll have ample reason to focus on the position battles, the clawing to latch on to the roster, the buzzwords and scheming and shuffling that the coaching staff and front office will do, and we’ll be floating in the minutiae of this team the way we do every August. That’s immersion that gets us ready for the season ahead, and one of the wonders of being a fan is that we can and will get freshly invested in a young wide receiver who pops off for 100 yards in a Week 2 preseason game, or an undrafted quarterback making a push for a practice squad spot. It’s a beautiful thing, and late July and August are never the time to hold your favorite team at arm’s length. We’ll want to see progress in terms of what it means for this season, not the far-off future, and that could take many different forms from a stouter run defense to more consistent quarterback play to getting a healthy Bralen Trice on the field. What will matter is, of course, to be determined.
From there, how that modest progress translates meaningfully onto the field for the regular season and into the way the team handles its remaining weaknesses with an eye on winning both this year and into the future will really matter. I won’t say the wins and losses don’t matter, because of course they do. We desperately want to see this team win, make a playoff push, and start swinging for glory again. But if this isn’t the year that brings the Falcons back to relevance and postseason success, may it deliver progress. May progress, in fact, be the theme of this team’s 2026 with such a pivotal, resource-rich 2027 en route, starting with what I hope is an encouraging and successful training camp and preseason in just a bit over a week.
