All signs are pointing to Josh Jacobs returning to the lineup this weekend. Your mileage may vary on whether or not you think he should, based on the legal situation he faced this year and the still-looming question of whether or not a potentially damaging video will come out, but it seems inarguable that his return will help the Packers’ backfield.
We’ve written again and again about how bad the Packers’ rushing attack has been this year. Bad might not even be the best word to use anymore. Embarrassing
might be better. The Packers are a distant 32nd in total rushing yards this season, having managed just 359 so far this year.
But Jacobs’ return can help! As the Packers play out a one-team experiment on whether or not running backs matter, Jacobs can help the situation by doing the one thing the Packers’ backs haven’t been able to do this year: perform as expected.
Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) is one of the most interesting advanced stats out there right now, and it doesn’t paint the Packers in a particularly flattering light. The product of the 2020 Big Data Bowl, RYOE uses historical datasets to calculate how many yards a ballcarrier should be expected to gain in a given down and distance from a given spot on the field.
So far this year, the Packers’ non-quarterback ballcarriers have produced the staggering total of -116 RYOE. MarShawn Lloyd alone accounts -75. Chris Brooks leads the team with a grand total of one (1) RYOE. It’s been bad!
If you wiped out the Packers’ negative RYOE, their running game would see an immediate and drastic improvement. An additional 116 yards would bump the Packers from dead last in the league to a tie for 29th. Put differently, if the Packers ballcarriers produced only as expected and no better, they’d make a quick move away from being the worst running game in the league.
Jacobs, at the very least, should be able to do that. An inside grinder who’s never been particularly big or fast, Jacobs has made his living as a runner hitting the designed hole hard and correctly. Even allowing for how poor the Packers’ run blocking has been this year, and it’s been bad, there have been plenty of plays where a Packers running back simply has failed to go where he’s supposed to.
To say nothing of what he could offer as a receiver or a pass blocker, Jacobs should at least be able to go where he’s supposed to go. If he can at least be a net neutral on the ground, gaining only what he’s expect to get and nothing more, he’ll represent a significant and dramatic improvement for the Packers’ rushing game.
