The same story we’ve been seeing played out. With the wind howling in, the Cubs couldn’t hit the ball out of the park. The Cubs lost two games. The Cubs last won a game in which they didn’t homer on July 30 against the Cardinals. Fortunately, the team hits a lot of homers, because they have become a team that must have them. It’s been frustrating to watch the pitching be pretty good but the Cubs losing most of their games anyway. They go long stretches with no base runners. Then when they do get
runners, they strand them anyway. The team will finish the season in quite a funk. The team got on a plane for Tampa having scored nine runs in their last five games.
Your mileage may vary as to if you consider it a silver lining that the Phillies are collapsing harder. As I sit here writing this, the Phillies were shut out, losing to the Rays. Even a Rays team that has already clinched home field advantage through the AL playoffs and is resting players was too much for the Phillies. In a wild twist of fate, the Phillies now have a decent chance to miss the playoffs. They are sitting on a magic number of two with two to play. If they could just win two games against the Rays, they’d be in. But can they do that? The Phillies will run a bullpen game on Saturday while hoping to find a way.
I write somewhere around 1,000 words about the Cubs after each of 162 games (fuzzy math for a doubleheader and my midseason vacation). I’ve been doing this for nine full seasons and one partial season. So I’ve written maybe 15,000 words about various versions of this team. Never mind that for a while there that number was drifting up to between 1,500 and 2,000 words. It starts to feel like all of the words have been said before. I think of how many hundreds of thousands of words Al has typed out about various Cub teams and I’m in awe. I believe the Barenaked Ladies once told us that “it’s all been done before.”
It was around this time last year that I flipped the script for one night. It was the last Thursday of the season. I remember Cade Horton had been injured and it was a proverbial straw breaking my back. Just one too many unfortunate occurrences. I’m not sure I’ve ever quoted myself. Maybe, to show a prediction I made or something. But let’s find this.
Ho hum. So much for reaching the playoffs with any kind of momentum. The best pitcher has an injury that is still being evaluated. The closer looked decent enough in facing a couple of live hitters for the first time in weeks. The third starter just allowed eight earned runs in a start. The best hitter is maybe going to play tomorrow for the first time in weeks but can’t play the field yet. The second best hitter is battling a terrible slump since the break, but at least showed glimpses a few times per week. It’s not polished. It’s not healthy. It’s not even playing really tight ball.
There are stories of teams that slide into the end of the season, then get hot in the playoffs and make a run. There is no one formula on how you play early, late or even the middle. To my eye, the Cubs will be two players short of their best 26. We knew one of those months ago when Justin Steele was injured. Miguel Amaya had a great start to the season but hasn’t meaningfully contributed since May. The Cubs will field a 26 that when healthy and productive are plenty adequate to win a playoff series.
We’re seeing very few signs that we are heading for that ending. For a team that I’ve enjoyed so much, and believed could do damage, I’ve lowered my expectations. It’s not even an expectation. One win and don’t be embarrassing. That’s my new definition of a successful postseason series.
Lowered expectations. I have so much optimism most of the time where the Cubs are concerned. Maybe this going to be the time. I tell myself that so often. I see all of the things that can go right. But also, Clay Holmes has struggled. Alex Bregman’s eye. The offense is scuffling. The bullpen has been historically bad and can’t really be counted on to close out a win. This team might have actually started unraveling before it ever played a game this year. So much disappointment.
One more to go. Hey, I got an unexpected gift. I didn’t expect to be able to see the Cubs in person again until 2028. But they’ll be in town Sunday, I’ll grab tickets and I’ll go watch No. 162. I hope it’s better than 160 and 161 were. I know this, I love a good conversation about game theory. I’ve seen people talking about what is best. The Cubs want to be in the 4/5 game. For whatever reason, the sport that wants to be helping its highest seeded teams didn’t set the playoffs up to re-seed after the first round. I said it a while back. The Cubs want to be in the spot that has them face the Dodgers in the second round, should they get there. No offense to the two-time champions. I suspect both they and the Brewers would beat the Cubs pretty easily. But the Dodgers are a better matchup for this team.
Try to beat the Padres again. Then stay out west and take on the back-to-back champs. Maybe, you catch them dealing with too many of their own injuries. The Brewers pretty much wiped the floor with the Cubs this year after knocking them from the playoffs last year. The games don’t look to be evenly matched at all. Let the Phillies or Diamondbacks deal with the Braves, then the winner try to beat the Brewers. The best chance for this team to win involves a whole lot of players that won’t be on the postseason roster for one reason or another.
Three Positives: (Game One)
- Michael Busch had two singles and a walk and scored a run. Busch has heated up some down the stretch, though the power numbers didn’t really come with it.
- Tyrone Taylor hadn’t gotten much playing time of late. He crushed a double and drove in a run. He hit the ball well a couple of other times with nothing to show for it.
- Matt Shaw had a single and a double.
Game 160, September 25: Red Sox 4, Cubs 3 (88-72)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Miguel Amaya (.11). 1-3, 2B, 2 RBI
- Hero: Tyrone Taylor (.07). 1-3, 2B, RBI
- Sidekick: Michael Busch (.06). 2-3, BB, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Alex Bregman (-.20). 0-4
- Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.19). 0-4
- Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.17). 0-4, R
WPA Play of the Game: Adley Rutschman singled with runners on second and third and one out in the fifth inning. Two runs scored, tying the game. (.155)
Cubs Play of the Game: Miguel Amaya doubled with runners on first and second and one out in the second to give the Cubs a three run lead. (.150)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Three Positives: (Game two)
- David Peterson threw five shutout innings, striking out six.
- Seiya Suzuki had two hits and drew a walk.
- Nico Hoerner had two singles.
Game 161, September 25: Red Sox 2, Cubs 0 (89-72)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: David Peterson (.29). 5 IP, 19 BF, 3 H, 2 BB, 0 R, 6 K
- Hero: Javier Assad (.17). 2.1 IP, 8 BF, BB, R, 3 K (L 6-2)
- Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.09). 2-3, BB
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Ryan Rolison (-.32). 0.1 IP, 3 BF, H, BB, R, K
- Goat: Michael Conforto (-.22). 0-4
- Kid: Pedro Ramirez (-.15). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Wilyer Abreu’s two-out, two-run double in the eighth inning for all of the runs in the game. (.343)
Cubs Play of the Game: With a runner on first and no outs, David Peterson got Connor Wong to ground into a double play. (.098)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 159 Winner: Matthew Boyd received 54 of 69 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +25.5
- Alex Bregman +23
- Shōta Imanaga +15
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Carson Kelly +11.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Dansby Swanson -16
- Seiya Suzuki -17
- Caleb Thielbar -17.5
- Nico Hoerner -18
Notes: Four players have a shot at the bottom spot for the year. The last time last place scored over -20 was in 2022 when Jason Heyward was last with -15.5. Two people with a shot at the top spot. If PCA gets first or second for the last game, he will post the highest total by any Cubs since Cody Bellinger in 2023 (+35).
Scoreboard Watching: Phillies lose. The Diamondbacks all over the Padres. The Phillies are in pretty desperate need of a win.
Up Next: A rare neutral site game in Tampa against the Red Sox, trying to avoid a sweep. Neither team has announced a starter. Both teams seem likely to use pitching by committee in the game.
