
Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, August 28 at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: FS1
- Location: Huntington Bank Stadium — Minneapolis, MN
- Spread: Minnesota (-18)
- Over/under: 44.5
- All-time series: Minnesota leads, 2-0
- Last meeting: Minnesota 17, Buffalo 7 — August 31, 2017
- Current streak: Minnesota, 2 (2002-17)
Setting the scene
Labor Day Weekend truly commences the second Thursday night hits, and dozens of teams are introduced into the new college football season. One of the more prominently featured Thursday night games is a matchup between Buffalo and Minnesota — two programs reveling in prosperous eras, yet in search of breaking through to claim an elusive conference championship.
The Bulls enter year two under Pete Lembo riding the wave of a 5-game winning streak, hoping their impressive staff and player continuity keeps
that streak rolling in 2025. Meanwhile, Minnesota enters year nine under a former MAC championship-winning coach in P.J. Fleck, who made his debut against the Bulls nearly a decade ago in Minneapolis.
Fleck’s 2017 debut — a 17-7 victory for the Gophers — was the last time these programs collided, and the head coach is 2-1 against the Bulls all-time dating back to his Western Michigan days (and the first two of those meetings were shutouts). Buffalo is 1-11 vs. the Big Ten since joining the FBS, but the Bulls trot out plenty of star talent ready to spoil Minnesota’s season opener.
Buffalo Bulls outlook

Buffalo never expected to endure a coaching change in the 2024 offseason, but an unexpected sequence of dominos starting with Nick Saban’s retirement eventually led to head coach Maurice Linguist stepping down. Pete Lembo, who coached at Ball State in the early 2010s, earned himself a reputation as a special teams guru and took a flyer on another MAC program in need of new leadership.
The result was spectacular. Buffalo was one of the MAC’s greatest surprise teams in 2024, and it was noticeable off the bat. The Bulls claimed their second ranked win in program history in September, defeated preseason favorite Toledo in October, and launched a 5-game win streak spanning from the dawn of November through a dominant Bahamas Bowl victory over Liberty. After a prosperous 9-4 campaign, Buffalo retained both coordinators, a majority of position coaches, five offensive starters, and nine defensive starters — armed with continuity and chemistry to chase its first MAC title since 2008.
Buffalo racked up nine wins last fall primarily due to defensive dominance. All-American inside linebacker Shaun Dolac graduated after a statistically breathtaking season as the FBS leader in both tackles and interception returns yards. Yet the Bulls still trot out an All-American caliber linebacker in Red Murdock, who ranked second to Dolac nationally with 156 tackles and produced an FBS-best seven forced fumbles. Murdock is defined by his omnipresence, whether he’s in the backfield generating 17 tackles for loss or in coverage running back 31 yard pick-sixes.
But the Bulls’ veteran defense is more than the MAC Defensive Player of the Year favorite. Buffalo returns two additional All-MAC defenders who ranked first and second in the conference in sacks a year ago. Defensive end Kobe Stewart accrued 9.5 and fellow edge rusher Dion Crawford attained 8.5, and they join Murdock as the three Buffalo defenders with 12+ tackles for loss in 2024. Backfield invasion is a trademark of this team, and three well-versed defensive tackle starters command significant intention on the interior to make it all work.
The secondary remains in tact, but if there’s one area of Buffalo’s defense that could use improvement, it’s the passing defense which ranked 109th in yards allowed. The Bulls lost a former All-American in Marcus Fuqua (the 2022 FBS interceptions leader), but Marquis Cooper and Solomon Brown return as veteran leaders to the unit. But Minnesota is traditionally a ground-oriented team which means Buffalo can focus its defense on its strengths, and that’s stifling teams at and behind the line of scrimmage.
Offensively, Buffalo returns a Maxwell Award watchlist candidate in Al-Jay Henderson. The running back took major strides from August to January last season, averaging 27 rushing yards per game in his first five contests and 125 in his last five — totaling 1,078 yards and nine touchdowns. The Bulls will want to produce the majority of their offense on the ground, and for good reason. Buffalo returns two All-MAC guards in Trevor Brock and Tyler Doty and also can go 4-deep in the running back room, demonstrating strong depth.
The offense’s biggest question remains the passing attack. Buffalo brought in seventh-year senior quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson, who had previous stops at Penn State, UConn, and Kansas State. Roberson was famously thrust into an adverse top-5 matchup at Iowa in 2021 before transferring to UConn and tearing his ACL in his debut. He recovered well from those moments, collecting 2,075 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and six interceptions in 2023. However, 2023 remains his only sample size as a starter to date and he looks to improve his accuracy and ability to stretch the field in his fourth collegiate home.
Fortunately for the new quarterback, he’s equipped with Victor Snow — Buffalo’s leading wideout from 2024 with 651 yards and six touchdowns. Nik McMillan also returns from an early season-ending injury to the receiver room. Putting it all together, Buffalo hopes to make progress after ranking 110th in passing yards in 2025, even if its MO remains the run.
Minnesota Golden Gophers outlook

P.J. Fleck recently signed a contract extension through 2030 at Minnesota, and that extension recognizes the stability he’s brought to the program the last eight seasons. Fleck is 6-0 in bowl games and is responsible for Minnesota’s first 11-win season since 1904 and AP top-10 finish since 1962. A Big Ten Championship Game appearance remains a rare unclaimed goal of the Fleck era, but the Gophers are consistently winning 8+ games per year — perhaps two steps away from knocking on the door.
Throughout the 2020s, Minnesota has stayed true to its identity, often exhibiting the same strengths year-in and year-out. One of those strengths is a relentless defense. The Golden Gophers have featured top 10 scoring defenses in three of the last four seasons, limiting foes to 16.9 points per game in 2024. And in each of those three seasons, Minnesota presented excellent balance within its defenses, exhibiting top 16 ranks in both passing defense and rushing defense.
The Gophers should retain impressive defensive firepower in 2025, headlined by the defensive line. Anthony Smith ranked first on the unit with 6.0 sacks and 12 tackles for loss, and he only started three contests while reaching those heights. Things bode well for Smith to develop into one of the Big Ten’s top defensive ends in 2025 as the athletic 6’6”, 285 pound junior presents a nightmare matchup for many offensive linemen. He’s assisted inside by a sturdy defensive tackle room of Deven Eastern and Jalen Logan-Redding — two returning starters measuring up to 6’6”, 320 and 6’4”, 295, respectively. That being said, Buffalo’s offensive line must deal with substantial size and athleticism out of the gate to fend off this elite defense.
The linebacking corps takes a hit with the loss of First Team All-Big Ten selection Cody Lindenberg, but the unit remains in strong hands under his protégé Maverick Baranowski. Baranowski is Minnesota’s returning leading tackler with 65 takedowns including five behind the line of scrimmage, and he aims to sustain a run defense which ranked 12th in fewest yards allowed in 2024.
While Minnesota loses first team all-conference talent at linebacker, it retains said talent in the secondary. Koi Perich is the name to watch on the back end after a stellar Freshman All-American season. In his first year out of high school, Perich snagged a Big Ten-best five interceptions, registered 46 tackles, batted down three passes, and even contributed on special teams with 565 total return yards. He’ll rise into a full-time starter role this year as a dangerous threat when opponents drop back to pass.
Besides reliable, consistent defensive play, Minnesota has excelled under Fleck as a run-heavy team fueled by offensive line play. The Gophers lost their top lineman in second round NFL Draft selection Aireontae Ersery, but the “Minnesota Moving Company” still lives up to its moniker with size and experience. All projected starters are 6’5” or 6’5”, holding an average weight around 320 pounds. Greg Johnson and Ashton Beers are returning starters on the interior, while Marcellus Marshall and Dylan Ray arrive as starting-caliber transfers.
They’ll all block for feature back Darius Taylor, who nearly hit the millennium mark with 986 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in his second year as the Gophers’ feature back. Taylor is the star of this offense, but Minnesota’s depth should allow him to keep his legs fresh throughout the opener. Marshall transfer A.J. Turner arrives as a stellar secondary option, producing 864 yards on an 8.3 average for the 2024 Sun Belt champs, while Cam Davis is another viable add from Washington.
Minnesota prefers to ground the ball. The Gophers ranked 116th or below in passing each year from 2021-23, although that ranking rose to 76th last season. However, Minnesota is replacing the graduated Max Brosmer with a redshirt freshman in Drake Lindsey whose experience is limited to five passing attempts and one rushing attempt. His receiver room takes on new form as well with transfers Logan Loya and Javon Tracy as likely starters. How much the Gophers rely on Lindsey and the new receivers out of the get-go is the biggest question as Minnesota takes the field for the first time in 2025.
Prediction
Minnesota has played some ugly, low-scoring games against MAC competition lately — 25-6 win over Eastern Michigan in 2023, 14-10 loss to Bowling Green in 2021, and its 17-7 win over its 2017 outing against Buffalo. This 2025 opener between the Golden Gophers and Bulls should take on similar form.
Both Minnesota and Buffalo prefer to run while their passing attacks remain more of an uncertainty. But both teams’ strengths reside within their defenses, meaning there will be frequent stops. The keys to Buffalo pulling off the upset involve keeping this one in the teens and winning the turnover battle by one, preferably two. The Bulls’ offense isn’t explosive or exciting, but they play smart complimentary football — avoiding negative plays and turnovers to manufacture their own luck. However, they’ll need at least one sustained scoring drive to give themselves a chance, even if their defense brings its A-game.
Buffalo has plenty of stars within a front seven highlighted by Red Murdock and Kobe Stewart. The Bulls are best off stacking the box early and forcing Drake Lindsey to beat them with his arm. While Buffalo should provide some resistance, countering Darius Taylor and this Minnesota offensive line isn’t a simple task in Week 1. But the defining matchup will be occur on the other side of the ball where Minnesota’s suffocating defense can prevent Buffalo from generating more than two scoring drives.
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Buffalo 14