In a game where Vanderbilt was favored over a Top 10 team for the first time since 1978, the Commodores did their part. It was “only” a 7-point win in the inverse way that it was a 16-point loss to Alabama.
Diego Pavia could have run in another TD with just under 2 minutes on the clock. LSU was out of timeouts though, so he hit got down after gaining a first down for a trio of kneel downs that started at the LSU 1-yard line.
The Bayou Bengals led 3-0 after their first drive then 10-7 after their second drive, but that was the last time they led or were tied. Vanderbilt answered the TD drive with their second one, having reached pay dirt on their opening 2 drives. LSU would get within 1 after a 4th and short passing play ended in a sack of Pavia. Then a FG to end the first half and a TD to start the second half got Vanderbilt out to a 24-13 lead before the teams traded TDs. LSU would get another FG to be within a TD again, but they were held to back-to-back 3 and outs until Pavia could crush their hopes.
It was an impressive win against the then-#10 Tigers. Vanderbilt assumed that #10 spot while LSU fell all the way to #20. It was a long fall after their second loss. With #15 Missouri and College GameDay in town, what was learned or confirmed last week to look forward to in another matchup against Top 15 Tigers?
Lessons We Know Well
Diego Pavia is a magician. He only threw for 160 yards, but he did it on 14/22 passing. His 17 carries for 86 yards buoyed his QBR to 93.1 for the game. No, it may not be a prolific air raid attack, but it is an offense that ranks #8 in FBS for scoring offense. Pavia makes it all tick with his 84.9 Total QBR for the season. He ranks 7th in FBS in the stat intended to assess the entirety of a QB’s impact with weighting for quality of defense faced. He had 4 or 5 plays where he spun away from pass rushers and created positive plays, most of them being conversions for 1st downs, including at least 6 scrambles for 71 yards (stat was given early in the 4th quarter). The quality around him has gone up so much from last year, so his improvisation has gone from turning an okay team into a good one to turning a good team into a borderline elite one.
The offensive line is straight up bullying people. Yes, Pavia does a lot of things behind them, but LSU’s front 7 is damned good. Vanderbilt is 3rd in FBS in yards per rushing attempt. The backs are good. Pavia does a lot of tricky things. The WRs, and occasionally a TE, get some gadget runs although most of them are technically passes. Even with those caveats, a team is not 3rd (THIRD!) IN THE COUNTRY for yards per rushing attempt with a stout offensive line. They are also 6th best in QB sack percentage. I wish I had access to pressure percentage, but I could not find it anywhere. Pass protection is fun when Cade McConnell was all over the internet for deleting 2 Tiger defensive linemen on 1 play. He left Isaia Glass and Jordan White staring at human wreckage they were expecting to block.
Lessons We Are Learning
Eli Stowers is a dangerous pass catcher, and Cole Spence may be underrated. Stowers only had 3 catches for 32 yards, but LSU’s linebackers and safeties were constantly shading towards and tracking Stowers. Spence took advantage for 5 receptions for 56 yards and a TD. There were a pair of really nice catches, too. He had an outstanding diving catch on a 2nd down play that made it 3rd and manageable. The other was over the middle where every inch of his 6’7” frame was needed to snag a high pass. Stowers also had a really nice catch over the middle.
The main 2 WRs struggled a bit against LSU’s secondary, which is always one of the most talented in the country, but I think they are still plenty competent. Junior Sherrill only had 2 catches for 30 yards. Tre Richardson did not have any catches and had a very painful 3rd down drop on a deep ball that could have killed the game a full possession earlier. Richardson did have 3 carries for 22 yards.
The boys behind the line were nasty, too. MK Young had 6 carries for 85 yards including runs of 43 and 28 yards along with a 10-yard catch. Sedrick Alexander was more of a workhorse with 13 carries for 42 yards and TD on 4th and goal. He had 2 receptions for 16 yards. Vanderbilt. AJ Newberry only had 2 carries for 3 yards. Jamezell Lassiter going totally silent has been odd. I thought he would get a couple of carries each game with the explosiveness he had shown early in the season. Still, they are getting the job done behind this fantastic offensive line.
On the other side of the ball, the defense is getting the job done. They are 33rd in FBS at 20.0 points allowed per game. A week after Alabama had to settle for 4 FG attempts, LSU had the same number. Holding LSU to 2 TDs and 4 FG attempts is a pretty good day on defense. It would not have been that bad if not for one horrible run fit by a safety then another play where three Commodores failed to tackle a receiver who was able to take off for 62 yards on a pass caught very near or behind the line of scrimmage.
The defensive line has been the key to everything so far. On passing downs, they have generated pressure on opposing QBs 42% of the time when they do not blitz. Their work is also instrumental in Vanderbilt holding opponents to 3.38 yards per carry (27th in FBS) and 92.4 yards per game (12th). Both sacks and 2 of the 3 other TFLs were all made by defensive linemen. They are not doing it alone, but their ability to clog up running lanes and put QBs under duress is allowing DC Steve Gregory to be creative behind them.
The pass defense seems content to give up the intermediate throws in order to prevent big plays. They do a decent job of getting up on screens, but the range 8-12 yards downfield seems open a lot. Some variations in zone depth or going man-to-man a bit more often could do a lot to throw off opposing QBs who are averaging 8.0 yards passing per attempt, which ranks 59th. It is not exactly bad. It just is not quite good. Considering where they were a year ago though, the turnaround is impressive.
Another thing growing about this team, and really the program as a whole, is how they handle big moments. The Alabama game was a step back, but it was from [acronym redacted]. Right now, the Commodores seem ready to play in any moment from a night game at #11 South Carolina or an 11 AM kickoff against #10 LSU. GameDay is in town for this Top 15 matchup. For as much as the talent level has risen to make Vanderbilt a legitimate Top 10 or 15 team, it is the attitude change that the Dores belong. It might be a cute story to those outside of the program, but they have made it very clear that they are not asking for opportunities. They are creating and dominating them. This game needs to be another rubber stamp as to how Vanderbilt is here and ready to fight no matter how bright the lights are.
Lessons for Further Study
Are the penalty woes behind them? They only were flagged 4 times for 35 yards. One of them was an awful pass interference call on Kolbey Taylor that was just good coverage, but Taylor also may have gotten away with DPI later in the game. For the team 103rd worst in the country in penalty yards per game at 63.3 and who commits the 91st most penalties at 6.9, this game was different enough to give some hope that the woes are behind them. As every coach ever has said, cleaning up penalties keeps you from giving free yards to the other team.
Will turnovers be a problem or an opportunity? Vanderbilt has forced 10 turnovers (6 Fumble Recoveries and 4 Interceptions) to Missouri’s 6 (2 FR and 4 INTs). The Commodores have coughed the ball up 6 times (2 Fumbles Lost and 4 INTs) while the Tigers have given the ball away 8 times (1 Fumble Lost and 7 INTs). Vanderbilt turning the ball over less and taking it away more is a good sign. If the pass rush can get to Missouri QB Beau Pribula, he has a propensity to put the ball into harm’s way. One thing from the LSU game was that the rush was getting to Garrett Nussmeier, who looked wounded all game, a lot, but the DBs were playing soft enough that the underneath routes could get open. I would love to see some risks taken by trusting the rush to force the ball out quickly and sit on some shallow routes.
This is it. This is GameDay. Vanderbilt is the #10 team in the country. They are 6-1 for the first time since 1950. They have every single possible goal in front of them, even ones that would have gotten you soundly mocked if you mentioned them 18 months ago. Or 6 months ago. As it is when you play a sport where you can only lose once or twice to keep those hopes alive, today is the next big game. And we all get to approach it with excitement instead of fear because of how this team has been playing.
