Just like a week ago, the Steelers will square off against a team with an identical record this weekend. While Pittsburgh managed to squeak out a win in a sloppy game against New England, Minnesota was
putting belt to ass against Cincinnati, winning 48-10 in a lopsided game that included two Vikings defensive touchdowns.
As they head across the pond to Dublin, both teams are dealing with injuries to starters, though the Steelers might be receiving some reinforcements to their secondary. Whichever team wins Sunday will advance to 3-1 and hold a share of first place in their division to close the first month of the season.
What to expect from the Vikings’ offense
Rushing YPG: 122.3 (13th)
Passing YPG: 145.7 (3oth)
PPG: 27.0 (6th)
RP: Looking from the outside, the Vikings seem like they’ve had a fairly tumultuous first month. They opened the season on Monday Night Football against the Bears, and for three quarters, their offense looked like an unmitigated disaster. Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy looked unplayable for most of the game before catching fire and leading the Vikings to score 21 unanswered points and a stunning comeback victory.
The following week, McCarthy once again looked unplayable, completing just 52.3% of his passes and throwing another two interceptions. There was no late-game surge for the Vikings in a 22-6 loss to the Falcons. McCarthy was shut down for Week 3 after he was diagnosed with an ankle sprain. He’s been ruled out for the game against Pittsburgh, which means the Steelers will be getting NFL journeyman Carson Wentz.
Wentz wasn’t asked to do too much against the Bengals, and the Vikings’ defense pitched in two touchdowns to the effort.
Despite Wentz’s reputation taking a nosedive in the years following his fall from grace in Philadelphia, this Vikings offense won’t be one to take lightly. Since becoming Minnesota’s head coach, we’ve seen Kevin O’Connell’s offense operate enough successful game plans with a variety of quarterbacks of varying skill levels at this point to expect the Vikings to put Wentz in a position to succeed.
After all, Sam Darnold was essentially banished to the life of an NFL backup until a season-ending injury to McCarthy during the preseason opened up an opportunity for him to start. Darnold’s performance filling in with Minnesota last season earned him a big contract this offseason, and O’Connell deserves a ton of credit for helping revive his career.
Schematically, O’Connell comes from the Shanahan-McVay coaching tree, working as the Rams’ offensive coordinator for two years prior to being hired by Minnesota. We talked about the Shanahan-McVay offense previously when we previewed the game against Seattle in Week 2, so I won’t repeat myself too much here. But the simple version is this: expect a zone running attack, especially wide zone, with plenty of horizontal routes that exploit spacing vertically to challenge the defensive coverage.
And the Vikings will give Wentz chances to succeed. He might not be the most skilled quarterback the Steelers will face, but he has one of the best receivers in the game at his disposal: Justin Jefferson.
The play above depicts perfectly the premise of O’Connell’s passing scheme. Wentz looks like he’s predetermined that he’ll be getting the ball to Jefferson at the snap, as long as he is protected and the defense gives the right coverage look. With the Bengals playing Cover 3, the Vikings have tight end T.J. Hockenson run a short route to stress the linebackers’ coverage assignment. When the linebacker in the middle of the field takes a step toward the Vikings’ tight end on the pump fake, Wentz knows Jefferson will be open running behind the backer and in front of the deep coverage. Bang, first down and a trip to the red zone.
The Vikings have attempted 65 passes through three weeks, and 20 of those targets (30.8%) have gone Jefferson’s way. Jefferson can run any route you draw up, but the Vikings also prioritize getting him easy touches. It might sound like a novel concept, but the Vikings recognize that when you have one of the best playmakers in the game, you should find as many ways to get him the ball as you can and just let him create.
Sometimes that’s as simple as setting up an easy screen.
Other times, that’s trusting your quarterback — who was once selected at No. 2 overall in the NFL draft — has enough juice in his arm to rip a tight window throw, and that your All-Pro wide receiver will make him right, and then some. The Steelers’ reduction of Juan Thornhill’s role should help avoid tackling blunders like the Bengals went through in the play below, but against Jefferson, the Steelers’ secondary can’t afford any lapses in tackling.
When the Vikings’ passing attack isn’t feeding Jefferson, TJ Hockenson is often the beneficiary. As I’ve mentioned, they love to force defenders into making choices about their coverage that can create easier looks for the Minnesota pass catchers.
Jalen Nailor has served as the Vikings’ wide receiver two, and he runs a lot of vertical routes and crossers. He’s tied with Hockenson for the second-most targets (13) on the team, but could see a reduced role this week depending on how many snaps Minnesota gives Jordan Addison in his first game back from a suspension stemming from a 2024 DUI arrest. Addison runs a similar route tree to Nailor, just with more success. Through two seasons as the Robin to Jefferson’s Batman, Addison has 133 receptions for 1,786 yards and 19 touchdowns.
The Vikings tend to funnel targets to their top two receivers and Hockenson. Adam Thielen’s six targets are fourth on the team, but have resulted in just two receptions. Running backs Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones have four apiece, but Jones is on injured reserve and will miss this game.
The Steelers will need to be sound in their coverage and tackling to avoid giving up explosive plays to this offense, but there are still opportunities for them to attack. Wentz is playing for his sixth team in six years for a reason. For one, his accuracy can be spotty and create turnover opportunities, like on this misfire to Nailor.
Wentz is also prone to taking sacks for various reasons. Forcing him to his left is always a good option for a defense, and other times he hunts the big play, missing an easy checkdown. He can also struggle when he gets a man look pre-snap that’s disguising zone coverage.
The Vikings are allowing the fifth-most pressure in the league (41.0%) and will be without starting guard Donovan Jackson. Taking his place will be Blake Brandel, who was the Vikings’ starting guard a year ago. Brendel, a fifth-year pro, has allowed 17 sacks in career with limited playing time outside of the 2024 season. He gave up two sacks in the Vikings’ 27-9 wild card loss to the Rams.
In the running game, Mason will lead Minnesota in carries with Jones sidelined by injury. Mason is a classic Shanahan-style back: an undrafted player that isn’t overly fast, elusive, or powerful, but one that understands zone schemes and seems to always get the most out of what the blocking has set up for him.
And you know that outside zone is coming.
The Vikings present a unique challenge for the Steelers. They don’t feel unbeatable for this defense, but the Steelers can’t afford to be asleep at the wheel because of the perceived lack of quarterback talent. This offense is talented and clever, and will certainly look to put stress on Pittsburgh’s linebackers with both the run and pass. But if Pittsburgh’s defense can execute its fundamentals, continue to generate pressure, and improve on its run defense, it should have more than a decent shot at victory.
What to expect from the Vikings’ defense
Rushing YPG Allowed: 130 (22nd)
Passing YPG Allowed: 141.3 (3rd)
PPG Allowed: 18.7 (11th)
RB: The Vikings defense is both a fun one to scout and a tough on the gameplan against. Think of just about any hot new defensive scheme in the NFL, and Minnesota is probably the team leading the charge. Led by coordinator (and former Steelers assistant) Brian Flores, who’s been aptly described as a mad scientist for his creative schemes, this will be a tough matchup for Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Personnel-wise, the Vikings have a lack of household names despite being a universally regarded top-10 unit at this point in the season. But NFL fans should know there are a collection of excellent players scattered throughout the Minnesota defense.
Pass rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel were both among the top 10 sack-getters in the league last season, while cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. tied for third in the NFL in 2024 with six interceptions. Safety Josh Metellus remains one of the most versatile defenders in the NFL. And over the offseason, the Vikings added some veteran D-line talent in Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave.
(On the injury front, it’s worth noting that both Hargrave and Van Ginkel started the week as DNPs; Van Ginkel re-aggravated a neck injury, which is worth keeping an eye on).
And last week against the Bengals, cornerback Isaiah Rodgers had a game for the ages, notching three tackles, two passes defensed, two forced fumbles, an interception, and a fumble recovery — including two defensive touchdowns.
But what really makes the Vikings defense pop is how Brian Flores calls it.
Watching back the Vikings’ dominating win over the Bengals last week, it stands out just how much Minnesota uses creepers and sim pressures. On an absurd number of snaps they crowded the line of scrimmage and showed cover 0, even bringing the house at times. They like to line up six on the defensive line, essentially as their base defense.
Facing such an unorthodox unit, communication and cohesion from the offensive line is especially important. It’ll be a challenge for the Steeler O-line on Sunday.
With nine sacks on the year, the Vikings are tied for the seventh-most through three games. It’s an uber-aggressive front seven, highlighted by a “my guy” from the 2023 draft cycle, the limited but extremely fun to watch Ivan Pace Jr.
The Vikings send a constant stream of different looks at the line of scrimmage, and it’s a similar case in their coverage, where Flores breaks out some absolutely wicked disguises and rotations (Per Football Insights, the Vikings lead the league in EPA per drop back by a wide margin).
The all 22 really puts it in perspective.
It’s stuff like this that makes playing quarterback in the NFL so incredibly hard. And the Vikings have profited from a slate of inexperienced/backup quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr., Jake Browning) through the first three weeks of the season.
As evidenced by the two clips above, it’s not like there’s no room to pass against the Vikings — there’s just a lot of thinking that has to happen on the fly. Case in point: Per Next Gen Stats, the Vikings lead the league in defensive EPA, but also have the third-worst average target separation at four yards this season.
Aaron Rodgers has a lot more experience than any of the quarterbacks the Vikings have played this year, but he’s also an old school football mind who likes to gain his bearings presnap. Minnesota excels at clouding those reads. Who’s coming and going in the pass rush? And what will the final coverage shell be?
However, one area where Pittsburgh could find success is in the middle of the field passing game. Minnesota’s constantly evolving defensive fronts can place a lot of stress on the linebackers, allowing some space to open up between the hashes.
That being said, Sunday’s matchup will be a challenge for a Steelers offense that’s yet to find its stride.
