The Cowboys have not beaten the Broncos this century, losing their past seven matchups with this franchise. In fact, the last time Dallas won against this team was also the last time they won a Super Bowl.
That trend, as well as the memory of what happened last time they played in Denver, has everyone feeling a bit nervous ahead of this game.
The Cowboys are looking to get above .500 for the first time this season, but the road trip to the high elevation of Denver against a strong Broncos team presents a daunting challenge. Can the Cowboys break their losing streak and get out of there with a win? Let’s see what our writers think.
When Denver has the ball
Take away the deep shot
Sean Payton’s offense loves the dink and dunk stuff, as does Bo Nix, but this scheme is fundamentally built on making defenses creep up before hitting them overtop with explosive plays. The Broncos’ worst games, offensively have come when they fail to connect downfield. Nix, for the record, is completing just 32.1% of his attempts 20+ yards downfield, and has fewer completions on those throws than Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler.
The Cowboys defense has been one of the worst in the league at defending those deep shots, but they’ve gotten better the past two weeks. Continuing that trend will be huge, especially as Denver has three receivers – Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and Troy Franklin – who are equally capable of winning down the field. Playing without both starting safeties, as well as top backup Juanyeh Thomas, will make it even more challenging.
When Dallas has the ball
Get George Pickens going early
Speaking of passes that go 20+ yards downfield, Dak Prescott is fourth in the league in completions on deep shots. George Pickens is third in the league in deep shot receptions, too. Pickens has proven to be more than just a deep threat, but he’s still one of the league’s best in that area.
Dallas will need to establish that connection early in this game. No defense plays more Cover 1 man coverage than the Broncos, mostly because they have the cornerbacks to play that way. But a receiver like Pickens can change that with his ability to win over the top or on jump balls. CeeDee Lamb should be able to put in work, too, but Pickens will be the key to moving the ball against this defense.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (3-3-1):
I have no idea which defense shows up. Let’s hope it’s the one we saw last week.
Cowboys 38 Broncos 27.
Mike Poland (3-3-1):
This is a question of two halves. Can the Cowboys number one offense erase Denver’s top-5 defense, and can the Cowboys bottom tier defense hold back the Broncos middling offense? This is a game that lives and dies in the trenches and which side gets the better of the other will win the day. Add the fact that Dallas has lost the last seven meetings against the Broncos, and the last time the Cowboys beat Denver at Mile High was 1992, this is all a worry heading into this week.
Being a pure and ultimate optimist, it’s still hard to say Dallas will win this, but the Giants did lay out a blueprint on how to get the better of this Denver team in an absurd game. It’s so hard to say Dallas will win this one even though I want to, so let’s be real.
Dallas 31-38 Denver (sorry)
Brian Martin (4-2-1):
The Cowboys defense will be without Trevon Diggs and Donovan Wilson, making their secondary even more suspect. That means Dallas’ offense will need to be near perfect Sunday afternoon, because Bo Nix and Company will take advantage of the Cowboys injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
Score projection: Cowboys 33, Broncos 37.
Jess Haynie (3-3-1):
Can this team put together consecutive wins? Hard to trust, and Denver won’t be missing its best receivers.
Broncos 34, Cowboys 27.
David Howman (3-3-1):
There are a lot of factors in this game that make me nervous to pick the Cowboys. Trevon Diggs’ absence isn’t one of them, but missing both Juanyeh Thomas and Donovan Wilson are big ones. Cooper Beebe not being able to return from injured reserve is another. And this Denver defense is the number one factor.
That said, I also have zero faith in the Broncos offense to take advantage of Dallas’ defensive inefficiencies. Nix has been downright bad this season and Payton is hardly doing him any favors with his questionable play-calling. Keep in mind, this Broncos team trailed the winless Jets to start the fourth quarter and they were also getting blown out by the Giants before an improbable comeback last week. I think the Cowboys end up making a few more plays in the end, but it’ll be terrifyingly close.
Cowboys 38-34.
