Was it really only a week ago that the Orioles went into Fenway Park and swept two games from the Red Sox? The second of those games in particular — a ludicrous 4-3 O’s win in 11 — practically sent Boston fans into full-on meltdown mode. In just a matter of days, though, the momentum has shifted for both teams.
The Sox stormed into Yankee Stadium and humiliated the Yanks for the first three games of the four-game set before dropping the finale. The O’s, meanwhile, dropped three of four to the Astros,
averting a sweep with yesterday’s win. Pitching told the story for each team. While Boston’s staff was stellar over the weekend, allowing a total of four runs in their three wins, the Orioles’ hurlers were shelled, giving up 26 runs in their three defeats.
The Sox have vaulted to the top of the wild card standings over the Yankees and Mariners and currently hold a four-game lead over the first non-playoff team, the Royals. So they seem to be in comfortable position to secure a playoff spot, because it’s not as if the Red Sox have any history of late-season collapses.
The Red Sox have both the fifth-best ERA and the fifth-best OPS in the majors, giving them a well-rounded team that — on paper — should have a clear advantage in this series. But as the Orioles proved last week, the game isn’t played on paper. There could be some more wild baseball, and Red Sox fan meltdowns, in store for these next four games.
Game 1: Monday, 6:35 PM, MASN
LHP Brennan Bernardino (4-2, 2.93) vs. RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (10-5, 3.97)
Don’t look now, but Sugano…might be good again? The Nippon Professional Baseball veteran was the Orioles’ most reliable starter in the first two months, then fell apart in June and July but has bounced back in August. He’s allowed just one run in each of his last three starts, including last Tuesday against the Red Sox (in which the run was unearned). That pushed his ERA below 4 for the first time since June 20. Sugano twice struck out Masataka Yoshida, his longtime NPB opponent, in last week’s game.
For the Sox, this would normally be Walker Buehler’s turn, but he’s been moved to the bullpen after struggling to a 5.40 ERA in 22 starts. His last outing, in which he walked four Orioles in as many innings, was the last straw. The Sox will use the lefty reliever Bernardino as an opener, with either a bullpen game or a bulk reliever to follow.
Game 2: Tuesday, 6:35 PM, MASN
RHP Lucas Giolito (8-2, 3.72) vs. TBD
It’s been a nice comeback season for Giolito, who bounced between three different teams in 2023 — pitching terribly for two of them — and then missed all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery. He was a little rusty to start this season, posting a 6.42 ERA in his first seven starts, but he’s been stellar ever since with a 2.55 ERA since June 10. He dominated the Orioles back on May 24, working seven shutout innings. Before that, he hadn’t faced the Birds since 2022.
The O’s haven’t officially announced a starter for Tuesday, but indications are that it will be Kyle Bradish, marking his long-awaited return from his June 2024 Tommy John surgery. The O’s right-hander has finished up a six-start rehab assignment and is ready to make his first major league appearance since last June 14. The Orioles have missed him terribly. Don’t expect vintage Bradish right out of the gate, but if he can build up some innings and get his velocity and command back, he’ll carry some momentum into 2026.
Game 3: Wednesday, 6:35 PM, MASN
RHP Brayan Bello (10-6, 3.07) vs. TBD
The 26-year-old Bello is having his best season yet, bringing a 134 ERA+ into the game. He’s giving up fewer hits and homers than ever before, even with his strikeout rate dropping to a career-low 6.8. He seems to have made a concerted effort to induce weak contact and get batters to hit the ball on the ground, and it’s paying off. Bello was a thorn in the Orioles’ side last season, beating the O’s three of the four times he faced them. Gunnar Henderson has his number, though, with four extra-base hits in 16 at-bats. Ryan Mountcastle, on the other hand, is 1-for-10.
The O’s again don’t have a starter announced for Wednesday. This would have been Brandon Young’s spot, but he landed on the IL with a left hamstring strain that he suffered in his most recent start.
Game 4: Thursday, 1:05 PM, MASN
LHP Garrett Crochet (14-5, 2.38) vs. LHP Cade Povich (2-7, 5.13)
Povich seemingly was battling with Young to keep his rotation spot upon Bradish’s return, but Young’s injury gave Cade a reprieve. Povich hasn’t exactly taken a step forward over his 2024 rookie season. In almost exactly as many starts as last year, his numbers are strikingly similar across the board, including an identical 1.43 WHIP and an ERA (5.13) that’s just seven points better than last season’s. The one big change is that he’s racking up more strikeouts, lifting his K/9 from 7.8 to 9.9. That included a career-high 10 strikeouts Aug. 16 in Houston. But until he can start going deeper into games — he’s worked more than five innings only once in his last six outings — he’s not making a strong case to be part of the 2026 rotation.
Povich faces the unenviable task of trying to defeat Crochet, who is making a bid to win the AL Cy Young Award. The lefty has been sensational in his first year for the Red Sox, currently leading the AL in wins (14), strikeouts (207), and, most notably, innings pitched (166.1), a remarkable total for a pitcher who was thought to be a major injury risk when Boston acquired him. Take a look at Crochet’s Baseball Savant page — literally everything is red. (Red is good.) He’s in the top percentile of every statistical category imaginable. It might not be quite enough for Crochet to overtake Tarik Skubal as the Cy Young favorite, but he’s awfully close. Good luck, Orioles offense.
