UFC 322 takes place this Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York City, headlined by Islam Makhachev challenging Jack Della Maddalena for the welterweight title, in his attempt to make history.
The
matchup is almost a reflection of Makhachev’s first lightweight title defense, where instead of an all-time great fighter from Australia moving up to challenge a new champion and assert his pound-for-pound claim, now it’s Makhachev moving up to challenge a new champion from Australia to assert his pound-for-pound claim. Can Makhachev cement himself as one of the greatest to ever step in a cage, or will “JDM” start his own title legacy off like Makhachev did not so long ago?
Let’s discuss.
Paths to victory for Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322
Back in January, Della Maddalena was barely in the welterweight title picture, but how big a difference a few months makes. At the start of the year, then-champion Belal Muhammad was expected to defend against Shavkat Rakhmonov, until an injury prevented the matchup. Instead, Della Maddalena got the call to fight, and authored the best performance of his career, showing improved takedown defense and scrambling ability, and lumping Muhammad up on the feet to take the title. It’s a game plan that will have to be on full display again on Saturday.
The straw that stirs the drink for JDM is his boxing. While he has OK kicks and some sneaky good intercepting knees, Della Maddalena boasts some of the best pure boxing in the UFC at the moment. He’s got good footwork, can work off his jab, and rips to the body in a way that is still underutilized in MMA, and all of those tools are well-positioned against Makhachev. The body shots in particular are likely Della Maddalena’s best weapons on Saturday, for multiple reasons: Makhachev is extremely good with his defense, they keep him in position to defend takedowns, and they will drain Makhachev’s gas tank, which is not bad, but can fade down the stretch. Expect a barrage of body attacks from the champion.
But the real determining factor on Saturday for JDM is going to be his ability to keep the fight in space. Della Maddalena is improving as a wrestler, but Makhachev is substantially better than Belal Muhammad in this aspect, and especially thrives against the cage. He has a much bigger variety of finishes from there and if he is able to get to JDM to the fence with regularity, the champion is gonna have a bad night. Instead, Della Maddalena needs to push Makhachev back with his footwork and always keep his back to space, making takedowns much more difficult and taking the initiative away from the challenger. Basically, JDM needs to do what Dustin Poirier did against Makhachev, only better.
Paths to victory for Islam Makhachev at UFC 322
Already with a claim to being the greatest lightweight of all time, Makhachev now looks to cement himself as one of the 10 greatest fighters ever by joining the champ-champ ranks, but he’s got a tough row to hoe to get there.
Though he hails from Dagestan, and as such is perceived as a grappler, the strength of Makhachev’s game is in his well-roundedness. Yes, he is a dynamic wrestler and grappler, but those parts of his game are enhanced by his timing on the feet, striking defense, and clinch offense, which are in turn elevated by his grappling. It’s a cohesive game, with all the parts working together in a brutally efficient harmony.
Nevertheless, the strategy on Saturday will primarily revolve around taking advantage of his grappling opportunities. While Makhachev can compete on the feet with Della Maddalena, staying there opens him up to danger. And JDM has previously shown some dangerous tendencies in the grappling phase, specifically in giving up his neck as he tries to scramble up.
For Makhachev, the plan is straightforward: win the pressure battle. While Makhachev is not the best at pressuring footwork, he can do it, and though Muhammad lost to Della Maddalena, it was not for lack of getting to his spot. JDM is not exceptionally fleet of foot, and Makhachev can force his way into clinches, where his diversity of attacks can make problems for Della Maddalena. From there, it’s all about getting back control or working a front headlock series, opening Della Maddalena frequently gives up.
Questions
Unlike the co-main event, this fight feels pretty simple as far as the dynamic goes: Della Maddalena wants to keep it standing, Makhachev wants to get it to the floor. But there are a few questions that will either determine which of those things happen, or shift the axis of the fight entirely.
- How does Makhachev look at 170? Though he’s an enormous lightweight, 15 pounds is still 15 pounds. Even with Makhachev putting on weight, he’s probably the smaller person. And how does putting on that weight affect him anyway? As a general rule in MMA, striking moves up easier than grappling does, and even though JDM isn’t a huge welterweight, it’s still a concern.
- How much better with Della Maddalena be? JDM is only 29 years old. There is no question that Saturday night will be the best version of Della Maddalena that we’ve ever seen. In contrast, Islam Makhachev just turned 34. That’s not old, but it’s past the point where you expect huge gains. Is he far enough ahead to still be better than JDM on Saturday, or will the new champion make a leap?
Prediction
As I’ve broken down this fight, I’ve fluctuated from being very confident in this pick to having no confidence whatsoever, but my pick has never changed: I believe Islam Makhachev is going to win.
At the heart of it, I believe Makhachev is a much better fighter than Belal Muhammad, and while Muhammad lost, that fight was competitive, and he wasn’t fighting smart. Makhachev always fights smart and has many more tools than Belal does. He’s the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport for a reason, and despite his sensational performance against Muhammad, I’ve seen too many warning signs from Della Maddalena to trust him on Saturday.
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via submission (d’Arce choke) — 3:45, Round 2.
