It’s a battle for sole possession of first place in the AFC North as the 2-1 Steelers take on the 2-1 Browns at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland on Thursday Night Football.
Pittsburgh is coming off of a massive victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, where its offense came to life in a thrilling 30-27 victory. However, Cleveland is coming off of a Week 3 victory of its own after defeating the Carolina Panthers by a score of 21-18.
With both teams coming off major wins, FanDuel Sportsbook has
the Steelers as 2.5-point favorites over the Browns.
An early-season road divisional matchup can be hard to predict, especially given the Steelers’ history in Cleveland on Thursday night. With that being said, here are three predictions for the Week 4 matchup:
Jaylen Warren goes for 100+ rushing yards again
Steelers running back Jaylen Warren is coming off one of the best games of his entire career, as he averaged 7.5 yards per carry to the tune of 127 rushing yards against the Bengals. With fellow starting running back Rico Dowdle out for the second straight week, the Browns provide a good matchup for Warren to repeat the same success he saw last week.
The Browns defense has overall been a solid unit this season, but they have given up 4.5 yards per carry through three contests this season. Warren is also the best running back that the Browns have faced so far this season in terms of yards and overall efficiency.
Warren is currently averaging 5.7 yards per carry through three games, and while that number is unlikely to hold all season long, this feels like a perfect spot for Warren to continue his red-hot streak as the most featured player in the Steelers’ offense.
Steelers edge rushers sack Deshaun Watson multiple times
After TJ Watt set a blazing pace with 3.5 sacks through the team’s first two contests, the star edge rusher was quiet in the Steelers Week 3 victory. In fact, Pittsburgh edge rushers did not record a single sack in the win over Cincinnati.
This game against Cleveland is the perfect get-right spot for the group, which remains the strongest and deepest position on the Steelers roster. They will face a quarterback in Deshaun Watson who has been sacked nine times through three games this season.
I’ll be looking at Nick Herbig as the one who needs a sack the most, as he has had a quiet season on the stat sheet so far after a breakout 2025 campaign. It’s tough to imagine the Steelers edge rusher group not getting home and sacking the quarterback for two straight contests, especially considering the number of sacks Watson is taking so far this season.
Roman Wilson catches another deep shot
Through three weeks of the 2026 NFL season, nobody plays more man coverage than the Cleveland Browns. Mike Rutenberg’s defense plays man at a 41.7% rate, with the next closest team playing man just 34.4% of the time.
Interestingly enough, the Steelers have a receiver who they love to target when a team is in man coverage. In fact, Steelers wide receiver Roman Wilson has a 21.56-yard average depth of target against man this season, the highest of any receiver in the league.
That number comes on nine targets, meaning it’s no fluke. Coming off a game where Wilson caught a 38-yard touchdown, this could be a spot for Wilson to repeat some of that downfield magic.
What are your predictions for Steelers vs. Browns? Join the BTSC comment section and let us know!
