Following consecutive losses to Oklahoma and Arkansas in the final week of the regular season, Missouri men’s basketball finds itself back in a familiar place heading into the SEC Tournament.
The Tigers spent most of the last two months on the bubble, which we’ll define as the projected first eight teams in and eight teams out of the NCAA Tournament. When MU dismantled Mississippi State in Starkville to advance to 20-9 on the season and 10-6 in the SEC, it moved itself one win away from becoming a March
Madness lock with a week of conference play remaining.
Mizzou is still looking for that one last win to erase any remaining questions about its postseason status heading into the SEC Tournament this week in Nashville, where the Tigers are +8000 to win the tournament according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
A potential quarterfinal round matchup with Florida, the heavy favorite entering this week, likely puts a low ceiling on how deep of a run MU can make. Fortunately for the Tigers, they’ve put themselves in a strong enough position that a win Thursday should secure a spot in the Round of 64, and they still have a good chance to avoid the First Four with a competitive loss.
For a picture of how Mizzou compares up to its bubble competition, I took a look at the the metrics used by the selection committee and where MU stands against the rest of the teams projected as one of the last four byes, last four in and first four out per the latest bracketology from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. Outside of the Quad 1 and Quad 1 plus Quad 2 wins, all numbers are the Tigers’ national ranking in the metric, and the number in parentheses is where they stand among the group of 12 bubble teams.
- Wins Above Bubble: 39 (2)
- Resume metrics:
- Quad 1 Wins: 5 (T-2)
- Quad 1 and 2 Wins: 10 (T-2)
- KPI: 52 (10)
- Strength of Record: 37 (1)
- Predictive metrics:
- KenPom: 50 (9)
- Torvik: 45 (7)
- BPI: 44 (6)
The weakness of Mizzou’s tournament resume is its predictive metrics, where the team ranks in the middle of the pack to below average compared to other bubble teams. The Tigers shine in resume metrics, where they lead the group in strength of record and are tied for the second-most wins against both Quad 1 competition and Quads 1 and 2 combined. But most importantly, MU ranks second among the group in wins above bubble, a stat the committee has indicated will be a significant factor in its decision making.
Mizzou’s high number of quality wins and a winning record in the SEC are why all 71 bracketologists in the bracket matrix, which tracks a wide number of tournament projections, include the Tigers. MU is currently projected as a 10-seed, on average, which is consistent with the latest round of projections from some of the most prominent basketball and college sports outlets. ESPN (Lunardi), Hoops HQ and On3 all project Mizzou as a 10-seed in bracket projections released since the final game of the regular season.
So, how much could the outcome of Thursday’s game impact the Tigers’ tournament chances? The answer is probably not much. A win over Kentucky on a neutral court would count as another Quad 1 win for MU, but Dennis Gates’ squad is currently closer to being an 11-seed, on average, than a 9-seed.
A competitive loss to the Wildcats could move Mizzou down into the first four in, depending on the performance of other bubble teams in their respective conference tournaments, but it’s unlikely the committee will significantly punish the Tigers for a close loss to a good team. The outcomes MU wants to avoid are a blowout loss to Kentucky or any loss to LSU, both of which could set the team up for a mid-week trip to Dayton.
When reviewing Mizzou’s status in the tournament field and the seeding possibilities, the team’s objective for Nashville becomes clear: put together a solid performance Thursday and show the committee it’s deserving of a spot in the Round of 64. The Tigers should be going dancing barring a shockingly poor outcome in Nashville, but there’s a chance that whether they start out on Tuesday/Wednesday or Thursday/Friday of next week comes down to what happens in their next matchup.
From there? MU is +8000 to reach its first Final Four and a whopping +25000 to win the national title. But one of the beautiful things about March Madness is that anything is possible — just ask VCU, Wichita State, Loyola Chicago and North Carolina State. If Mizzou has proven anything this season, it’s to expect the unexpected. We’ll see if the Tigers can turn that into a positive over the next few weeks.
