Going into this weekend, Iowa State was one of three teams that still had a shot to catch Arizona for the Big 12 title. But then the Cyclones lost at home to Texas Tech, eliminating them from the race and taking a little of the shine off their meeting on Big Monday.
It’s still a big game, one that could give the Wildcats their first Big 12 regular season championship. It also will provide ESPN plenty of chances to show Caleb Love’s miracle shot from their game last season at McKale Center.
To better
understand this year’s Iowa State team, we reached out to Jared Larson of SB Nation sister site Wide Right & Natty Lite for some insight and a score prediction. Below are his verified answers to our suspect questions:
AZ Desert Swarm: What went wrong against Texas Tech, and are any of those things repeated problems?
Jared Larson: “It was one of those days where the shots went down for the visiting Red Raiders and not for the Cyclones. It’s hard to win games when opponents connect on 14 3-point baskets and outrebound by six, equally hard when a visiting team can use up almost all of the shot clock, only to make a basket as they did eight of nine times on Saturday. Killyan Toure not scoring in any of his seven attempts from the field is also concerning. “They made choices tonight to leave (him) unguarded,” Iowa State coach TJ Otzelberger said. “It’s something for us that we need to solve. Tonight was the night it was really exposed.”
The Cyclones have the top-ranked player in the Big 12 (per KenPom) in 6-foot-9 senior forward Joshua Jefferson. What has made him so effective this season and how do you think Arizona will defend him?
“Jefferson is elite in filling the box score, as he did against Texas Tech with 22 points, five rebounds, five assists and five steals. He can catch passes in the paint, he can hoist and make 3-point baskets (2 for 4 against Texas Tech, with the two makes coming at an average of 25.5 feet). I believe he’s been the glue to keep this team going whether it’s good moments in bad moments.”
Milan Momcilovic leads the conference in made 3s (109) and 3-point percentage (50.9), but Arizona is holding Big 12 opponents to 30.3 percent from outside. What does Iowa State do to get him open, and what happens if that doesn’t work?
“What makes Milan elite is his fast release and his ability to make triples in the second half of games. I don’t have notes on this, but my partner is convinced he shoots better in the second half than the first half – at least at Hilton, today he had one in the first half and four in the second half. Ball movement, spacing and timely screens have been beneficial, truly a nod to how he’s honed his craft – and how saying ‘jelly beans’ has amended his shooting psyche.”
Four of Iowa State’s five losses have come when the opponent has an offensive efficiency of 118 or higher. Where do the Cyclones struggle on defense, and how do you see that factoring into this game?
“Against teams that can space the floor, make the most of every possession and have advantages in the rebounding battle, the framework of the Cyclone D starts to crumble. When it looks like they’re playing flat-footed, it seems almost inevitable the result will be in the losing column. Another thing that I’ve noticed is, especially with both the Kansas and the Cincinnati game – games in which they trailed 26 and 17 respectively – when they get down by double digits, they get down in their play. Yes, the Cyclones trimmed it to six today, and finished with a margin of nine in the loss at Cincinnati, but it seems to be one of those deals of when it rains it pours.”
This question probably would have been more significant before this last game, but why does Iowa State seem to play so much differently (read: worse) on the road in Big 12 play? Didn’t this team dominate Purdue in its gym in November?
“The Big 12 is a tough conference, apart from Arizona being 7-1, the best winning result on the road is Houston at 5-3 followed closely by Iowa State, Texas Tech and UCF at 4-4. I think it’s a mixture of hoping the 3-point basket falls, maintaining identities on both sides of the ball and drowning out the noise of home crowds that aren’t decked out in cardinal and gold. The win over then No. 1 Purdue saw 11 triples fall for the Cyclones, and four Cyclones finished in double digits. Fellow Ames native and Ames High alumnus Tamin Lipsey had eight assists and zero turnovers in that game, and on the season he has 133 assists to 34 turnovers. It takes everybody to be at the level Otz expects, and, hopefully today was another wake up call.”
Prediction time. Does Iowa State keep Arizona from clinching on its home court on Senior Night or do the Wildcats win their first Big 12 title? Give us a score pick.
“A white out and senior day? Koa Peat with a 12-7-5 line in his first game back? If the Cyclones can remain out of foul trouble, and not get in their own way and in their own heads as I’m sure the McKale Center at ALKEME Arena will be at a fever pitch with all that’s on the line, I think Arizona wins it in the way AP Style says to spell out numbers under 10. Out of thin air, 77-72 Arizona, and I can’t wait to watch this at Parks Library.”
