It’s one thing to be bad. It’s worse to be bad when you were supposed to be good.
It’s another thing altogether to be historically bad, ranking among the worst teams in the history of the franchise, when you were supposed to be good.
The Phillies’ offense is off to a historically terrible start. Coming into Tuesday’s three-game series against the Padres at Citizens Bank Park, their .224 team batting average is 2nd-worst in MLB (Padres, .218). Even in a season in which offenses throughout baseball are
generally struggling, it is particularly terrible.
But even worse, their .224 average is the worst, through any team’s first 59 games in franchise history, of all time. The previous worst average, .226, belonged to the 1941 Phillies, the subject of a recent book by my Hittin’ Season podcast co-host and former Good Phight site director Justin Klugh, Summer of the Cheap Wieners. That squad lost 111 games. They did not have one of the highest payrolls in Major League Baseball.
They were so bad, their manager even went temporarily blind.
Their OBP is only 5th-worst, so at least they have that going for them!
They haven’t scored more than four runs in a game, since May 18. They haven’t reached double figures in hits since May 18. Over their last 11 games, they’ve scored 26 runs and tallied 59 hits. During their 4-2 road trip, the offense put up a slash line of .169/.229/.339.
Oh, and that $300+ million payroll features an active roster of position players that has tallied the 3rd-fewest Fangraphs WAR so far this season. Here are their rankings by position in terms of fWAR through May.
- Catcher (19th)
- First Base (21st)
- Second Base (T-16th)
- Third Base (27th)
- Shortstop (24th)
- Left Field (29th)
- Center Field (24th)
- Right field (T-20th)
- Outfield (29th)
- Designated Hitter (7th)
There are only three positions in which the Phillies rank inside the top-20 (2B, C, DH), but only Kyle Schwarber ranks among the top-half at his position. And Kyle doesn’t actually play a position.
Now, we can certainly argue about the value of WAR if the position primarily played by Bryce Harper is ranked 21st, although according to Fangraphs, Harper has been worth 1.0 WAR at that position, while Dylan Moore accumulated -0.2 fWAR and Felix Reyes -0.4 in their very brief moments at first. So yeah, there’s some noise there.
That being said, these are not the results one would, or should, expect from a $300+ payroll.
Adolis Garcia entered the week hitting .191/.274/.296 with just four home runs. He has 3 hits in his last 57 at-bats, with 30 strikeouts. The easy decision would be to sit him and replace him with someone else. The problem is there is no one in AAA worthy of doing that.
The same can be said for Bryson Stott and his .217/.264/.380 slash line. Or Bohm’s .210/.271/.335. Or J.T. Realmuto’s .220/.296/.299. Or Trea Turner’s .223/.273/.349. Or Justin Crawford’s .234/.297/.341.
There will be no hot prospect to ride to the rescue. Moving Bryce Harper to right field and trading for Boston’s Willson Contreras or Houston’s Christian Walker might be beneficial, but cannot overcome five regulars with OBP’s under .300. Same with adding Mike Trout.
I wish I could tell you there was a solution, but we both know there isn’t. At least not here in the middle of the season.
I do know that if the offense doesn’t improve, they will not go 18-10 in June, July, August or September. They cannot rely on Cristopher Sanchez never giving up another run again. They should not rely on Zack Wheeler to keep posting ERAs under 2.00. They should expect uneven pitching from Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter.
The Phils will hang around the wild card race all season. Their pitching is good enough, and the competition around the rest of the NL after the Big Three (Dodgers, Braves and Brewers), is middling (8 teams are no more than 2 1/2 games apart for the three wild cards).
All the Phillies can do is hope the breakout is right around the corner.
