The NFL schedule has been examined in every way imaginable, from the traditional winning percentage strength of schedule, to betting lines strength of schedule, to travel miles, to standalone games, so let’s look at another: rest differential.
What is rest differential?
It’s the difference in days each franchise has between games, with the higher the better. For example, a team playing on a short week vs a team coming off the bye week would theoretically be an advantage for the more rested team, and
the rest differential calculates that type of thing over all 18 weeks.
The Chicago Bears have the best overall rest differential of all teams in the 2026 seaosn at +15, which is the second best since 2002, behind the 2024 Baltimore Ravens (+16). That Ravens team went 12-5, but considering Baltimore has been a perennial playoff contender, how much did the rest help them?
It’s a fairly new metric to analyze with a small sample size, but that doesn’t mean the NFL space is devoid of data. Lindsay Rhodes of SumerSports looked at the 25 teams with the best rest differential since 2002, and just 12 went over their preseason Vegas win totals. However, 4 of the top 5 all won more.
The extra day of rest a team has in a given week could be the difference in an injured starter playing or not. So while the overall data doesn’t really show a big advantage, there are plenty of variables week to week that could matter.
Will the extra rest help the Bears in 2026?
