When last we spoke on September 1, the Mets were coming off an 11-17 August, which brought their record down to 73-64 on the season. Even so, they entered the month with a 93.4% chance at making the MLB playoffs according to Fangraphs. The Mets still had a chance at the NL East title at that point—8.8% according to Fangraphs—but those hopes have all but gone out the window.
The Mets followed that up winning three of their next four games before dropping eight straight—their third losing streak of seven-plus
games this season—before temporarily righting the ship with yesterday’s walk-off win against the Rangers to salvage the series finale. Combined with losses from their two closest competitors, the Reds and the Giants, the Mets built their Wild Card lead to 1.5 games. As they were two weeks ago, the Mets remain in that third Wild Card spot, and if they make the postseason, that’s likely where they’ll be. The Mets currently own a 77-73 record after reaching a season-high 21 games over .500 after their win on June 12. Fangraphs currently gives them an 80.6% chance of making the postseason, which is impressive given their recent struggles. Still, a postseason spot is anything but guaranteed.
With two weeks left to go until the conclusion of the 2025 regular season, let’s look at the Mets’ path to the playoffs, and where the teams trying to chase them down stand in the race.
New York Mets (77-73)
vs. San Diego Padres, 82-68 (3 games)
vs. Washington Nationals, 62-87 (3 games)
@ Chicago Cubs, 85-64 (3 games)
@ Miami Marlins, 70-80 (3 games)
Opponents’ winning percentage: .500
In an aesthetically-pleasing final two weeks of the schedule, the Mets’ opponents have a .500 record, with six at home and six on the road, and six vs. NL East foes and six vs. non-NL East foes. The Mets face the two teams directly ahead of them in the Wild Card race, though they don’t have much of a chance at catching either. They currently sit five games behind San Diego, and even a sweep here would only put them two games behind—plus, since San Diego swept the Mets at Petco, it wouldn’t even guarantee the Mets a tie-breaker. The Mets also head to Wrigley Field, but the dream of catching the Cubs and snagging home field in the Wild Card round is all but dead as the Cubs have opened up an 8.5 game lead on the Mets. Let’s just call both of those dreams unrealistic for the moment.
The Mets face two ‘lesser opponents’ in the Nationals and Marlins, but there is not a single Mets fan alive that is relishing the idea of ending a season against the Marlins—I do not need to remind anyone of what went down in 2007 or 2008. Despite their records, neither of these series will be easy, and the Mets cannot overlook the teams below them in the NL East standings. The Mets will probably need to win three of these four series to feel comfortable about their chances at a postseason—a record of 7-5 in this case would give them 86 wins, which is probably enough to get them a spot, but the way San Francisco has been playing, who knows.
San Francisco Giants (75-74)
@ Arizona Diamondbacks, 75-75 (3 games)
@ Los Angeles Dodgers, 84-65 (4 games)
vs. St. Louis Cardinals, 73-77 (3 games)
vs. Colorado Rockies, 41-109 (3 games)
Opponents’ winning percentage: .464
At one point, the Giants did not seem to be a serious threat, but by going 7-5 since September 1, have gained 3.5 games on the Mets in that stretch to close to within 1.5 games—they were as close as a half-game after Friday night. The Giants, who had a 1.8% chance of making the playoffs on September 1 according to Fangraphs, have seen those odds grow to 9.2%.
The Giants have a really tough road trip up ahead, and if they can weather it, they’ll be in a good position heading home for the final six games. The Diamondbacks are just a half-game behind the Giants and two games behind the Mets, so this is a critical series for them as well. Then there is the ever-present four-game set at Dodger Stadium at looming, which will likely determine the viability of their postseason dreams. Beyond that, they face the Cardinals, who have faded in the race, to their home stadium, and close out with three against the historically-bad Rockies. If they’re even remotely within striking distance of a postseason spot, having that series at home to end the season is a huge potential disruptor in this race.
Arizona Diamondbacks (75-75)
vs. San Francisco Giants, 75-74 (3 games)
vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 89-61 (3 games)
vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, 84-65 (3 games)
@ San Diego Padres, 82-68 (3 games)
Opponents’ winning percentage: .551
The Diamondbacks have closed to within two games of the final Wild Card spot in the NL by also going 7-5 since September 1. The 2023 NL Champions have seen their postseason odds grow to 5.2%, but they face an impossibly-tough schedule up ahead. First, they take on the Giants before welcoming the NL East-leading Phillies to Chase Field. Philadelphia will have long clinched the division title by then, but they are still fighting for the top spot in the NL, so they will have something to play for. After that, they host the Dodgers before heading out on the road to finish the year with three against the Padres.
They have, by far, the toughest opponents’ winning percentage of the remaining teams. The good news for them is that they have nine of their final 12 games at home. The bad news is they will have to face some tough teams as they try to get back to the postseason after narrowly missing it last year—if you recall, they finished in a tie with the Mets and were eliminated by New York owning the tiebreaker. This year, the Mets and Diamondbacks split the season series, meaning the tiebreaker here would come down to divisional records. The Mets are currently 23-23 vs. the NL East, while the Diamondbacks are 23-20 vs. the NL West, giving Arizona a slight edge here. However, with the D’Backs having nine games vs. NL West opponents left (as well as the Mets having six), a lot is yet to be determined.
Cincinnati Reds (74-75)
@ St. Louis Cardinals, 73-77 (3 games)
vs. Chicago Cubs, 85-64 (4 games)
vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, 65-86 (3 games)
@ Milwaukee Brewers, 91-59 (3 games)
Reds opponents’ winning percentage: .536
The Reds did themselves no favors by getting swept in Sacramento against the Athletics over the weekend. That put a huge dent in their postseason hopes while also dropping them below .500. They currently see themselves with a 4.7% chance of making the playoffs, according to Fangraphs.
Their schedule isn’t all that easy, either. They close out the year against the other four NL Central teams. A four-game series next weekend against the Cubs will be a huge determining factor in whether they have any chance of making it to the playoffs. And let’s not overlook that final weekend against Milwaukee, which could determine whether the Brewers get the top seed in the East. On the bright side for Cincinnati, they own the tiebreaker with the Mets, should the two teams finish in a tie.
St. Louis Cardinals (73-77)
vs. Cincinnati Reds, 74-75 (3 games)
vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 91-59 (3 games)
@ San Francisco Giants, 75-74 (3 games)
@ Chicago Cubs, 85-64 (3 games)
Cardinals opponents’ winning percentage: .544
The Cardinals are the living embodiment of the Dumb and Dumber “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?” meme. They enter play tonight with a 0.5% chance of making the postseason, but a lot will have to go right for that to happen. They started out the month strong by taking two of three from both the Athletics and the Giants at home, but they followed that by dropping five in a row before winning yesterday. They currently reside four games under .500.
They can do the Mets a big favor over the next three days by beating the Reds. After that, they face the Brewers at home to close out their home schedule, then head to San Francisco and Chicago to face two tough teams. It’s an uphill battle for St. Louis, but hey, crazier things have happened.
