The Portland Trail Blazers are a good way through their current rebuild. The Play-In Tournament might become a reality this season. The roster is coalescing with more than a handful of pieces hopefully part of the franchise’s next competitive era.
General Manager Joe Cronin has done an admirable job acquiring young, athletic and versatile talent, beginning with the drafting of Shaedon Sharpe in 2022. Ensuing drafts delivered Scoot Henderson, Kris Murray, Donovan Clingan, and Yang Hansen. Perhaps,
more importantly, Cronin hit go on trades that brought in Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Jrue Holiday, and Robert Williams III, not to mention Damian Lillard’s return via free agency last year.
The Blazers also lay claim to the Milwaukee Bucks’ draft assets between 2028 and 2030 as well as the Orlando Magic’s 2028 unprotected first-round pick. Unfortunately, they still owe a non-lottery first to the Chicago Bulls in the next three years, thanks to a deal struck by Cronin’s predecessor Neil Olshey in 2021.
But overall, the Blazers are increasingly stocked with assets that will either serve them on the court or in trades to further fine tune the roster as they seek out contention.
For any franchise to be a real contender, it invariably needs one player, someone with the ability to turn a game off of his own sweat. All recent champions have had one: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Kevin Durant.
Some Blazers pundits might argue that Deni Avdija is or could be that man. A minority might still believe in Damian Lillard’s ability to lead a team with a proper supporting cast. Perhaps it’s the eternal skeptic in me, but I’m not convinced either is good enough to lead the Blazers to ultimate success. Let’s take a look at why.
Deni Avdija
Deni Avdija was named an All Star this season and, if he gets his body right, still has a chance at the league’s Most Improved Player prize. I was a massive fan of the trade that brought him to Portland 18 months ago before anyone had any idea he’d be this good.
This season, Avdija is averaging 24.4 points on 34.1 percent from three and 46.3 percent from the field, 7.0 boards, 6.6 assists and 0.8 steals. Among forwards, he ranks third in assist rate, sixth in corner three pointers, seventh in defensive rebound rate.
He’s been a massive coup for the rebuild, which has seen its share of missteps. But when it comes to Avdija leading this team to glory, I pause. While he clearly has the drive, the physical gifts and the skillset, he’s yet to show he can do it in clutch situations — that rare gene that sets players above mere All-Star status.
In instances where his attempts can impact the result of a game, Avdija owns a clutch effective field goal percentage of 25.0 percent this season, less than half his overall 52.9 percent effective field goal percentage. Though defenses are typically tighter on higher-usage guys like Avdija in end-of-game situations, it’s on him to come through for his team, if he’s going to be the focal point.
More than that, a large part of Avdija’s game is predicated on getting to the foul line, yet his free throw rate currently sits at 80.1 percent, which is 24th among forwards. If games are going to be decided on attempts from the charity stripe, anything less than 86 or 87 percent isn’t going to cut it.
While’s he’s currently this team’s best option in late-game situations, he’s yet to show he can be that guy. Don’t get me wrong, Avdija, still has room to improve, I just struggle to see him getting to the rarest of air with the league’s best.
There’s also the pending issue of his next deal and limitations on an extension, which will be tricky for the Blazers to navigate if Avdija isn’t willing to return in unrestricted free agency.
The Pathway Forward
Portland’s wish was that Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson would pan out as key pieces in a championship run. Personally, I still hold a glimmer of hope for Sharpe but the chances of either making an All Star showcase is probably a longshot right now.
As I wrote last week, Donovan Clingan has it in him to be a great NBA center and possibly an All Star but he’s not the type of player that puts the Blazers over the edge.
Draft picks and young players with trade value are the Blazers’ pathway to a difference maker. To that point, it’d be great if the Blazers made playoffs this season, in order to end their pick obligation to the Bulls and free the franchise up to offer their own picks as well as those acquired from other teams. If they fail to secure a playoff seed, the Blazers will again be restricted in offering future picks this summer.
As for young players with value, the hope is that one of Henderson, Sharpe and perhaps Yang Hansen hold some outside interest to be used alongside picks and the salary ballast of Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant to get a star. Grant’s contract has long been maligned but with only two years and $70 million remaining on the deal after this year, it’s fine.
Conclusion
Joe Cronin has some work to do to lift this team into serious contention. In a perfect world, the franchise might return to the lottery this season and get lucky with ping pong balls like the Dallas Mavericks did last season, allowing them to draft their guy. More likely, though far from a guarantee, they free themselves of their Bulls obligations by making the playoffs this season, in order to use draft assets and young players to get their number one.
I’m not 100 percent certain Avdija won’t get there, but his recent improvement needs to continue, flourishing in end-of-game situations for me to be confident he can get there. When push comes to shove, the key to the Blazers second championship is probably not on the roster yet, but there are still avenues to get him.
