Hawkeye football is back in action after the bye week and Iowa is poised to hit the road for their second time in Big Ten play as they travel to Madison to take on the Wisconsin Badgers in the battle for the Heartland
Trophy.
With injury questions abound on both sides of this battle, there has been some line movement this week. Iowa opened as 3.5-point favorites over on FanDuel Sportsbook. They had the over/under set at 37.5 total points on Sunday. Throughout the week, we’ve seen the line drop to Iowa -3, but is back up to 3.5 as of Friday morning (if you’re looking to wager on the Hawks, however, there are some other books which may still have this down at Iowa -3).
The over/under is where there’s been some real movement. This one dropped all the way down to 35.5 total points at one point during the week, but is back up to 36.5 as of Friday morning. That would be the lowest point total for any college football game this season if it holds before kickoff on Saturday.
That gives us an implied final score of Iowa 20, Wisconsin 16.5 per FanDuel. Here at The Pants, we’re optimistic, which is never a good thing. All of our staffers are taking the Hawkeyes this week and all but one are giving the points. On average, we’re calling for a final score of Iowa 21, Wisconsin 12. That does still put us pretty clearly on the under.
Just to keep ourselves honest, we went 0-2 with our picks against IU and are now 3-7 on the year as a group, so maybe just do the opposite of what we say?
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for Iowa’s homecoming matchup with IU.
Individual Staff Predictions
JPinIC
It’s really easy for me to see this one playing out a couple different ways. On the one hand, Wisconsin has not looked good for about 80% of this season. Their offense looks like Brian Ferentz is at the helm and they’ve now cycled through three different QBs. They’ll be without their starter again this week, it seems, and averaging under 19 points per game it just doesn’t feel like they should have any shot at finding success against an Iowa defense that is rounding into midseason form.
Couple that with the bye coming at the perfect time for the Hawkeyes to hopefully get Mark Gronowski healthy, potentially get Reece Vander Zee back and if nothing else get some much needed work for backups like Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski, and this sets up like the kind of game Kirk Ferentz typically wins.
But this one isn’t in Kinnick. Instead, Iowa travels to Camp Randall, under the lights with the Badgers’ backs against the wall in a game they had already circled since losing the Heartland Trophy a year ago. Add in the fact that Iowa has been brutal coming out of the bye under KF and it really is anyone’s guess which version of the Hawkeyes shows up in Madison.
At the end of the day, I’ll trust the defense to do their part and keep this one within reach and set myself up to be hurt again, hoping Gronowski is healthy enough to will the offense to multiple TDs.
Iowa 20, Wisconsin 16
Greg Hollingsworth
I’ll be honest, I’m not sure what to expect on Saturday. Iowa and Wisconsin both have an elite run-stopping defense (ranked #4 and #6 in the country as of writing, respectively). Iowa is much better against the pass (#37 v, #96), but with Mark Gronowski’s health being a question, who knows if Iowa will be able to take advantage of Wisconsin’s secondary. That being said, Iowa has taken two ranked teams to the wire and beat a Rutgers team that is pretty good, and Wisconsin lost to a Maryland team (at home no less) whos other 3 wins consist of victories over two directional schools and Towson.
As I see it, this game can go one of two ways: Iowa comes out super aggressive on offense and throws the ball a ton against a rather bad Wisconsin pass defense and moves the ball with ease – or – we go ground and pound to try to keep MG11 from running the ball too much and find ourselves in a rock fight. Two years ago I know exactly how this game would have gone, it would have been an instant Sicko classic with a final score of 9-3. This year, I’m not entirely sure, but I’m going to choose to believe in Tim Lester and say that Iowa goes after their secondary and gets a win in Madison.
Iowa 27, Wisconsin 7
GingerHawk
I should have a more analytical take than I’m going to lay out here, but after an insane week I haven’t had much bandwidth to do much thinking about this game. Certainly not the level of Greg and JP above. What I will say is I think Wisconsin is going to be up it early on, so maybe they’re on to something with the 42 push ups thing. As rough a time as Wisconsin is going through right now they still have enough pride not to let Iowa stroll into Camp Randall and walk out with a comfortable win. It’s still a big rivalry and it would be a feather in their cap if they can get their payback, no matter what else happens in 2025.
So I think it’ll be close for a long stretch, though the Hawks do eventually pull away for a two score win.
Iowa 24, Wisconsin 14
Matt Reisener
Iowa’s quarterback questions loom large over this matchup. Early indications are that Mark Gronowski is likely to start, but how limited will he be after suffering a leg injury in the 4th quarter of Iowa’s loss to Indiana? Is Gronowski still capable of making an impact as a runner and, if not, can he be effective if forced to play as a pocket passer? Is a limited Gronowski better than a healthy Hank Brown (who looked overwhelmed when pressed into spot duty against the Hoosiers) or Jeremey Hecklinski? Iowa’s offense could struggle if it can’t pass the ball effectively, as the Badger defense is one of the best in the country at stopping the run, holding opponents to only 75 yards per game on the ground. Wisconsin has been much weaker in pass defense, but it will be up to the Hawkeyes to take advantage of that deficiency.
Iowa is clearly the better team in this matchup, but the Badgers looked surprisingly feisty in last week’s road tilt against Michigan. This game is basically a must-win for Wisconsin if it hopes to compete for bowl eligibility this season and save embattled coach Luke Fickell’s job, so the Hawkeyes will get their rival’s best shot on Saturday. This score may be closer than it should be, but expect Iowa’s defense to make enough plays to pull out the win.
Iowa 18, Wisconsin 10
Mattcabel
Once again, I don’t know what to pick here. My heart tells me this is a game that Iowa should win easily, but my gut says otherwise. I think Iowa will get the win, but if they don’t, I’m saying it now that the season is donezo.
Iowa 17, Wisconsin 14
Consensus: Iowa 21, Wisconsin 12
So there you have it – the bull is staying home in Iowa City and the Hawkeyes light a fire under Luke Fickell’s seat!
How about you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those predictions!
