This newest tool unveiled this offseason has given fans a new way to project how their teams’ offseason will go with an all-in-one offseason simulator including re-signings, restructuring, extensions, free agency, trades, and a mock draft simulator. The site also has its own evaluation for how teams handle the offseason after-the-fact, with grades/values for each signing, player lost, trade, and draft pick as well as categories for cap management, needs addressed, talent lost, player retention, value efficiency,
and overall talent added.
With all these factors weighed, the Stick to the Model site hands out a Free Agency Grade and a Draft Grade separately, then takes the average of the two to create a full offseason grade.
Per StickToTheModel.com, the Colts had the Following Grades:
A mixed bag for the Colts offseason, with a great draft grade paired alongside one of the bottom 6 Free Agency grades. So lets breakdown their assessment with the Good and the Bad.
The Good
The site absolutely loves the Colts draft, ranking it 3rd in the NFL as one of 4 teams with an A- Grade from their draft haul. General Manager Chris Ballard and his war room of scouts might not have had a Round 1 pick in the Draft or end up taking any players in the top 50 picks… but the Colts did an excellent job in letting the board fall to them and finding value consistently.
The Colts have a trio of A+ Grades from the site, with strong values compared to their big board:
- CJ Allen: Round 2, Pick 53 | LB2 and 37th Overall prospect | Devin Lloyd, Quay Walker, & Jack Campbell Athleticism + Stat Pro Comps
- AJ Haulcy: Round 3, Pick 78 | S4 and 53rd Overall prospect | Nick Emmanwori Stat Pro Comp, Roy Williams Athleticism Pro Comp
- Deion Burks: Round 7, Pick 254 | WR18 and 100th Overall prospect | Joe Reed Stat Pro Comp, Santana Moss Athleticism Pro Comp
StickToTheModel had a pair of late Day 3 Colts picks with A and A- grades as well: Caden Curry and Seth McGowan respectively
- Caden Curry: Round 6, Pick 214 | DE22 and 194th Overall prospect | Malcolm Koonce Stat Pro Comp, Sam Montgomery Athleticism Pro Comp
- Seth McGowan: Round 7, Pick 237 | RB10 and 173rd Overall prospect | TJ Yeldon Stat Pro Comp, Laurence Maroney Athletic Pro Comp
Linebacker Bryce Boettcher was the top graded pick for a player taken earlier than their big board ranking, with a B+ grade for being taken 135th overall compared to a 164th ranking. His two closest Pro Comps in Stats and Athleticism per StickToTheModel are Drue Tranquill and Anthony Walker Jr, both of whom are 77 and 78 game starters in the NFL.
Overall the site loves what the Colts did in the Draft.
In Free Agency, there are some bright spots inside the Grading. The Colts got an A in Free Agency signings, with nearly each signing deemed fair in expected per year cap hits. The only signing deemed Overpay: Defensive End Micheal Clemons getting $5.7 million, $2.8 million more than they expected.
They also deemed 4 of the Colts offseason losses as Smart Walks due to overpays of the cap:
- Wide Receiver Michael Pittman Jr: $23.3 million, +$10.8 million overpay
- Edge Rusher Kwity Paye: $16 million, +$6.5 million overpay
- Linebacker Zaire Franklin: $10.4 million, +$3.5 million overpay
- Edge Rusher Samson Ebukam: $2.8 million, deemed smart walk due to age and production regression post-2024 Achilles tear.
The Colts also 1 “major steal” according to the site in contract value for a re-signing: Mo Alie-Cox signing a $2.7 million deal which is $1.7 million under what he was expected to net. The rest of the re-signings (besides two, more on that later), were deemed fair value.
Overall they gave the Colts Free Agency an A in Free Agents signings relative to expected contract values, an A- in Trades, an A- in Cap Health, and a B+ in Needs Addressed as the Colts still have $29.9 million left to spend in 2026, have a ton of 2027 Cap Space, minimal dead cap hits, and none of their remaining signings this offseason will factor to the compensatory pick formula for extra 2027 Draft capital.
The Bad
The Colts C grade is in large part due to lack of talent acquired (9/20 grade) in free agency, some key losses (6/15 grade), and being considered overpaying for some players retentions (6/15).
While Pittman Jr., Paye, Franklin, and Ebukam were all smart walks, they still were key starters/contributors. The current replacements of them on the roster are either rookies or unheralded veterans:
- Michael Pittman Jr: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Deion Burks
- Zaire Franklin: CJ Allen, Akeem Davis-Gaither
- Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam: Arden Key, Micheal Clemons, Caden Curry, George Gumbs Jr.
While the Colts still have money to spend to further address needs, what remaining upgrade options they get remain to be seen.
As far as player retention goes, Alec Pierce was considered an Overpay by $7.9 million per year, as the site listed his projected value at $21.1 million. With Wide Receiver Contracts on the rise, the overpay makes some sense.
Braden Smith and Neville Gallimore were also listed as costly losses at $10 million and $5 million per year respectively, as both signed under expected value. The Colts plan at Right Tackle is 2025 Round 4 pick Jalen Travis or shifting 2024 Round 3 Pick Matt Goncalves back to Tackle after he started at Right Guard for the first time in his collegiate or professional career. Neville Gallimore’s replacements are the incumbent Adetomiwa Adebawore alongside the newly traded for Colby Wooden from the Packers, and journeyman former Round 1 pick out of Notre Dame Jerry Tillery.
StickToTheModel gave the Colts a C grade on its retentions after the Pierce contract and those costly losses.
And while the site loved the Colts draft overall, not every pick got high marks.
The two picks the site was not a fan of was 4th round Guard Jalen Farmer and 5th Round Edge Rusher George Gumbs Jr., both of whom got C grades. Farmer’s grade in particular is confusing compared to their big board ranking, but they might have been factoring positional value as well as hold doubts of Farmer starting immediately on the right side of the Colts line.
- Jalen Farmer: Round 4, Pick 113 | IOL6 and 91st Overall prospect | Alex Leatherwood Stat Pro Comp, Dylan Parham Athletic Pro Comp
- George Gumbs Jr.: Round 5, Pick 156 | DE32 and 258th Overall prospect | Jaylen Harrell Stat Pro Comp, Scott Fujita Athleticism Pro Comp
What’s Next?
The Colts could shore up a few weaknesses with some of the last remaining free agents prior to camp. Namely Defensive End to find a consistent pass rushing threat alongside Laiatu Latu, or Wide Receiver to find additional options beyond the surprise draft faller Deion Burks or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
The Colts are 6th in effective cap space (cap space after factoring in rookie class signings whose cap hits are set in stone from overall draft pick) at $29.9 million. Since all signings will not affect the conditional pick formula, the Colts will be further incentivized to be aggressive prior to the season opener to add more talent.
Whether it is the remaining veteran Defensive End free agent market (which is surprisingly robust with options even now) or via trade, Ballard should be active in upgrading the Colts in the near future.
