It was never in the cards for the San Diego Padres to overtake the Los Angeles Dodgers for the National League West division title. They lost the season series (9-4) to the Dodgers and could never gain ground on their rival during an extended losing streak.
With 11 games remaining in the regular season, the Padres have to make up three games on the Dodgers in the standings. It is their only chance to claim a division crown. By holding the tiebreaker, Fangraphs has deemed the Dodgers to have a 94.4%
chance of winning the NL West.
What lies ahead for the Padres
Based on their remaining schedule, the Friars have a path to clinch a postseason berth before a division champ is decided. Their magic number is six, and the Padres’ remaining opponents hold a combined .500 winning percentage this season.
First, is the final road trip that features three games against the New York Mets and three games against the Chicago White Sox. It is followed by the Friars hosting three games against the Milwaukee Brewers and three games with the Arizona Diamondbacks to close out the regular season at Petco Park.
If you want to speculate on the postseason berth clinch date, be my guest, because that might be difficult. The Padres are playing six games against two potential playoff teams.
The Mets series will have the feel of an October playoff matchup. Neither team can afford a loss this late in the season. The Brewers have clinched a postseason berth, but the NL Central is still up for grabs. Until it is decided, they will be fielding their regular lineup in games.
Cubs likely Wild Card opponent
The Friars are resigned to the fact that they will be the second seed among the Wild Card teams. They will travel to Chicago to face the Cubs in a best-of-three series at Wrigley Field. This season, the two teams split the six games (3-3) played.
It should be an evenly-matched postseason series. The winner could come down to which team’s starting rotation can slow down the other side’s bats. Both staffs have suffered through multiple injuries to key starters that tested the depth of their rotation. Unfortunately, the results have not been ideal.
The pitching stats from regular season series cannot provide enough evidence to choose a clear-cut victor. The Cubs had a 3.91 ERA with 51 hits allowed, 25 runs (23 earned runs), six home runs allowed, 28 base-on-balls, 44 strikeouts in 53 innings pitched. The Padres hold a 3.74 ERA with 47 hits allowed, 25 runs (22 earned runs), five home runs allowed, 30 walks, and 47 strikeouts against the North Siders.
The starting lineup for each team is equal in talent. In a short series, it could come down to which hitter gets hot at the plate that weekend. The Friar Faithful should never feel comfortable with any Cubs hitter in the batter’s box with runners in scoring position.
The seeding of baseball’s postseason will sort itself out over the next two weeks. The Padres have several scenarios available, but nothing is set in stone until clinching a postseason berth.
