The Los Angeles Rams are back in the NFC Championship game after a three-year hiatus. Standing in their way are the Seattle Seahawks and this is a matchup that has always felt inevitable. These are two teams that have been on another level all season. The stakes in the two regular season matchups were high and, now in the third, it doesn’t get much higher than a trip to the Super Bowl. Whoever wins this game should be favored to win in two weeks. It’s one of those moments where this game feels like
the de facto Super Bowl. Let’s get to our keys to victory.
1. Get interior pressure on Sam Darnold
As with any game that includes Sam Darnold at quarterback, the Rams have to be able to get pressure. It’s also not just about getting any pressure, but they have to get pressure up in the middle and from the interior. That is when mistakes happen with Darnold. In two games against the Rams this season, Darnold has thrown six interceptions. Looking at those interceptions:
- Interception 1: Interior pressure from Tyler Davis.
- Interception 2: Interior stunt pressure from Byron Young.
- Interception 4: Interior blitz pressure from Poona Ford and Kam Kinchens
- Interception 6: Edge pressure from Jared Verse
Out of Darnold’s six interceptions this season against the Rams, four of them have come via pressure and three of them are due to interior pressure. The Rams have to be able to make Darnold uncomfortable and start to question what he’s seeing. This season, Darnold is the 28th-ranked quarterback against pressure with an EPA per dropback of -0.58. In Weeks 11 and 16, Darnold is 11-for-22 with three interceptions and an EPA per dropback of -0.97 against pressure via NFL Pro.
However, the Seahawks are very aware of what they have at the quarterback position. This is a team and coaching staff that knows that the only thing that can derail the great defense that they’ve built is the quarterback. Since the Week 11 game, the Seahawks have hidden Darnold more.
- Sam Darnold Weeks 1-11: 7.6% Big Time Throw Rate, 3.2% Turnover-Worthy Play Rate, 3.7% Tight-Window Throw Rate.
- Sam Darnold Weeks 12-Div: 3.8% BTT Rate, 3.4% TWP Rate, 2.7% TWT Rate
In a sense, the Seahawks have been hiding Darnold more. The Week 11 game was an eye-opener in the sense that when he self destructs, the entire team goes down with him and it has a tendency to snowball. That’s also why the Rams can’t just pressure Darnold, but they need to get after him and create sacks. On plays following a sack, Darnold is averaging 1.1 air yards per attempt. The Seahawks effectively pull the plug on Darnold and it ends the drive. If Darnold is gun-shy and the turnovers don’t happen, they have to have a repeat of the Wild Card game last year in which they got to him with nine sacks.
2. Take away Kenneth Walker
This really ties into the first point, but a reason that the Seahawks have been able to hide Darnold as much as they have is because of the resurgence of the run game. Early on in the season and in the Week 11 matchup, the Seahawks really struggled running the ball. From Weeks 1-11, the Seahawks ranked 29th in rushing success rate and yards per carry. While they only rank 23rd in rushing success rate since then, they rank sixth in yards per carry. Their explosive run rate jumped from 4.6 to 8.6 percent which leads the NFL.
It’s basically the opposite of the Rams. From Weeks 1-11, the Rams defense allowed a rushing success rate of 47.7 percent which was top-10 among defenses and their 1.5 percent explosive run rate allowed was tied with the Denver Broncos for the best in the NFL. Since then, the success rate has remained exactly the same at 47.7 percent. However, their 5.5 percent explosive run rate allowed is the sixth-highest.
In Week 11, Walker had 16 carries for 67 yards. He had 11 carries for 100 yards in the second game. A big thing here is that the Seahawks will be without Zach Charbonnet as he will be out with a torn ACL. That could make the Seahawks’ run game more one-dimensional. Additionally, Quentin Lake will be back, and he’s only played two quarters against Seattle this season. He played just 38.1 percent of the defensive snaps in Week 11 before leaving the game with an injury.
Lake being back allows the Rams to defend the run on early downs in nickel which should limit the explosive runs. If the Rams can get Darnold and the Seahawks offense into 3rd-and-longs, they are 24th in EPA per dropback when passing on late downs since Week 10. Three of Darnold’s interceptions have come in passing situations on third down. The Rams need to win in the run game on early downs to force the Seahawks into their dropback passing game.
Walker is inefficient down-to-down. This season, he ranks 45th out of 49 running backs in success rate. However, he is second in the NFL in explosive run rate at 8.1 percent and is first in missed tackles forced per attempt at 0.28. The Rams have to be able to come up and gang-tackle Walker behind the line of scrimmage. He doesn’t break tackles and is stuffed at a 48.4 percent rate. If the Rams can win in the run game and force the Seahawks to lean on Darnold, they will have a good chance to win.
3. Communicate Protection = Consistent Stafford
If the Rams are going to win this game, Matthew Stafford needs to be better than he has been over the last two weeks. That’s not to say that Stafford has been bad. When the Rams have needed Stafford, he’s shown up in a big way. At the same time, he’s disappeared for almost half the game in both playoff wins. During the playoffs, the Rams have averaged 0.59 EPA per pass in the first and fourth/overtime quarters. In the second and third quarters, that is just -0.56. Much of that is because of the pressure that the Panthers and Bears have been able to generate.
It’s easy to point to last year’s overtime win against the Seahawks in which the Rams offense disappeared for stretches or the win this year as evidence that they can still win with defense. That’s not to say that the defense can’t win this game, but it will be much more difficult if the offense and Stafford disappear for a long stretch. The Seahawks are too good for Stafford to go on another stretch during the game in which he struggles to complete a pass.
The Rams are only going to go as far as Stafford takes them and that starts with protecting the quarterback. This Seahawks defense is much better than the one they’ve played in the first two playoff games. The Seahawks have a defensive front that can get after the quarterback. The Rams need to be able to communicate the protection calls in a hostile environment, especially on the right side with Warren McClendon.
In four games against Macdonald, Stafford has completed 58.6 percent of his passes while averaging 294.8 yards per game. The Rams quarterback has thrown 10 touchdowns to one interception with a 0.09 EPA per dropback. Had the Rams managed to beat the Seahawks in Week 16, we are likely talking about how Stafford has never lost to Seattle since 2021. Even still, Stafford has either won or left the field with the lead against the Seahawks.
When it comes to this Seahawks defense, the margins are much thinner. There’s a reason they’ve allowed one touchdown since Week 16 and none in their last two games. This has been the No. 1 defense since Week 12. With that said, Stafford is one of the few quarterbacks that can hit the tight windows and attack the Seahawks over the middle of the field. To get Stafford to those throws, they have to protect him.
4. Run the ball as an extension of the offense
Back in Week 16, the Rams actually had success running the ball against the Seahawks. They had a 53.8 percent rushing success rate which was the worst success rate that the Seahawks have allowed in a game this season. One of the major matchups of this game will be how the Rams interior offensive line with Kevin Dotson back matches up with the Seahawks defensive interior. However, it would be a mistake for the Rams to go strength on strength and run at the brick wall that is the Seahawks defensive front. When they run, it needs to be inside to avoid the negative plays. With that said, this isn’t a game that the Rams should run the ball 40 times.
Essentially, the run game needs to be an extension of the passing game and something used to keep the offense on track and ahead of the sticks. It needs to be used as something that they can do to keep the Seahawks honest. The Rams need to run the ball because it’s something they have to do, not as something that’s going to win them the game.
Since that Week 16 game, the Rams haven’t had as much success out of 13 personnel. Last week, they had one of their highest rates of 11 personnel since the beginning of the season. It’s very possible that the Rams utilize some 13 personnel in this game, but it should be expected for the offense to operate primarily in 11 personnel. It would not be surprising for the Rams to go to what they did in 2021 to get to the Super Bowl.
The Seahawks pass defense goes from very good to above average against empty. This is a way for the Rams to spread Seattle out and have them declare their coverage. The Rams can then attack with quick passes that Stafford has excelled with in recent weeks, especially on early downs, to keep the offense on track. This is something that the Rams should be able to lean into, especially with Davante Adams back. It’s also one way that the Rams can replace the run game. That’s not to say that they should abandon the run. They will still need to rely on it to some extent to keep the defense honest and set up the deep passing off of play action. However, this is one way that the Rams can attack the Seahawks cornerback group that has struggled to defend Puka Nacua. In two games, Nacua has 19 catches for 300 yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks.
Back in Week 16, the Rams did a good job going at Nick Emmanwori in the run game and using his aggressive eyes against him. The rookie allowed five catches on five targets and had one of his worst games in his young career. That is still something they should mix into the offense. The under-center play-action stuff shouldn’t be abandoned, but the Rams may need to delve away from it slightly if they are going to win.
5. Finish the Job
The Rams have gotten too far at this point to lose in the NFC Championship. They overcame Caleb Williams’ prayer throw last week and a comeback attempt from the Carolina Panthers the week prior. This is a team that’s gone through too much and done too much to stop now. They need to finish what they set out to do at the beginning of the year.
It’s very possible that this is a close game in the fourth quarter or the Rams have some control. Back in Week 11, they led 21-12 before needing a great punt from Ethan Evans to win. In Week 16, the Rams led 30-14. During the first three quarters of each game, Darnold has -0.48 EPA per play. In the fourth quarter that jumps to 0.06. This isn’t a game that the Rams can coast to victory and take their foot off the gas. They can’t sit back and wait for the clock to hit zero. After what happened in Week 16, the Rams have an opportunity to right their wrongs. To do so, it’s going to take the best 60 minutes that they’ve played this season.
