And now, here they are! The most daredevil group of baffling baseballers to ever whirl their wheels in the Wacky Baserunning Races! Competing for the title of the world’s wackiest baserunner! The competitors are approaching the baseline… The first is Jumbled-Up J.T., who dashes back to second when staying at third would do just fine…
You get the point. I could go on with the comparison, but it would feel a little mean, and also, there’s no Phillies who really make a reasonable match for Dick Dastardly
and Muttley. Plus, it’s not at all accurate. Despite all the frustration with the Phillies baserunning errors against the Dodgers on Tuesday night, the Phillies are one of the best baserunning teams in all of baseball.
Statcast tracks Baserunning Run Value, which sums up the value of bases taken via the steal, and extra bases taken on non-steal plays. By that metric (all stats prior to Saturday’s games), the Phillies rank third in all of baseball, with six runs added via the basepaths. They also rank third in the National League East, thanks to the baserunning excellence of the Marlins and Nationals. It’s a speedy division; except for the Mets, who are tied for dead last with Toronto (those birds really can’t fly). Granted, it’s pretty bunched up at the top; the Phillies are tied with four other clubs, and they’re only two runs behind the Fish for first. But the point is that the Phillies are quite good at adding to their offense with baserunning. It certainly isn’t a weakness for the club.
But that’s at the big-picture level. When you break Baserunning Run Value into its components of Runs via Extra Bases Taken and Runs via Stolen Bases, a somewhat more complex narrative emerges. The Phillies are best in baseball in runs taken via stolen bases, with five (tied with Washington and Pittsburgh, and being as good at thievery as a team named for piracy is a real feather to put in your cap). But they’re not exceptional at taking extra bases on non-steal plays. The Phils have added just a single run with their baserunning on such plays, ranking 14th. They’re not bad at it, contra the appearance from Tuesday night; twelve teams have lost runs with their baserunning decisions on non-steals. But their overall strength at baserunning is heavily tilted by their excellence at stealing.
Speaking of that excellence, let’s take a deeper look at it. The Phillies are just about average at attempting steals, with their 72 attempts ranking 14th league-wide. But they rank fourth for stolen base advances to second above average (and tenth for advances to third). In other words, they’re not unusually likely to attempt steals, but they are unusually likely to succeed when they do. That excellence is largely the result of the speed of Bryson Stott and Trea Turner; who are two of the three Phillies with double digit steal attempts. The third is Justin Crawford, who’s attempted a fair number of steals, but whose run value on them is zero (which is to say he’s neither really hurt or helped the team with those steals). Only two other Phillies have more than five steal attempts: Brandon Marsh, whose nine attempts have positively contributed to the team’s baserunning run value, and Bryce Harper, who has tried to steal seven times, and who’s underperformed on those attempts.
When it comes to taking extra bases on non-steal plays, most of the Phillies who have played enough to reach qualified status have contributed positively. Stott, Marsh, Turner, Crawford, and yes, J.T. Realmuto have all contributed positive run value on extra bases taken. Harper and Kyle Schwarber grade out as negative in that regard. Harper is eager to try to take the extra base, having done so 38 times, more than any other Phillie. But that eagerness takes as much from the team as it gives: he’s added two runs via his basepath ambition, and lost two runs on plays where it resulted in him being thrown out (and ends up in the negative overall because he lost a run’s worth of value on plays where he should’ve tried to take the extra base but didn’t). Conversely, Stott, who’s the second-most likely Phillie to try for the extra base, has added three runs of value on attempts, and lost none on being thrown out; he’s better than Harper at balancing ambition and prudence. If you’re wondering about Realmuto, he’s added one run’s worth of value with his attempts to take extra bases, and lost none on being thrown out. That game-ending play on Tuesday night was ugly, but it really does seem to be more of an aberration than an accurate reflection of how he performs.
Taking overall baserunning run value into account, all but two qualified Phillies grade out positively: only Harper and Schwarber are in the negatives. For Schwarber, that’s likely just a reflection of his lack of speed, and for this he can surely be forgiven. For Harper, it’s a combination of his somewhat subpar speed (47th percentile) and his overzealousness on the base paths. The biggest problem the Phillies have with baserunning, then, is that Schwarber isn’t fast, and that Harper is a little reckless. That can lead to the occasional moment of frustration as Harper rounds first on a play where he really ought to be satisfied with a single, and I wouldn’t wag my finger at any member of the Phlock that groans upon seeing it.
I would, however, note, that if your biggest problem on the basepaths is a superstar who’s a little too eager to throw caution to the wind, you’re doing pretty well. The poor, sluggish Blue Jays, playing on clipped wings, have just a single player who’s added a run via taking the extra base. They’d surely trade places with the Phillies. The Marlins rank first in baserunning run value, but they’d be doing even better if it weren’t for Liam Hicks, who ranks dead last in baseball with -5 runs in that metric. They’d surely prefer Harper’s baserunning style over his. If you’re really frustrated about Harper’s overweening confidence as a runner, you could take a page from the Dick Dastardly playbook and wrap a chain around his leg as he tries to leave first. But probably better not to. It never seems to work out for that double-dealing do-badder, anyways.
