The Diamondbacks’ first ten games have been remarkably undefinitive as far as answering any questions one might have had about the team. Pitchers that have been expected to be good have been bad and vice versa. Hitters who were expected to be bad have been worse, and hitters that were expected to be. It all shakes out to a 5-5 record ten games in. But given that all three series were against contenders (and the favorite to win it all) I can’t be too terribly upset. Some areas of concern nevertheless.
In New York, the Mets find themselves in three way tie for first place with the Phillies and Marlins, with the Braves a mere half game behind. They haven’t had a particularly difficult strength of schedule so far, however, having faced the Pirates, Cardinals, and Giants. Honestly, with that schedule, only being 6-4 is something of a disappointment for a team that is built to be a real contender.
Game 1 — 4/7, 1:10 PM — Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.60 ERA/115 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP) vs. Freddy Peralta (1-0, 4.35 ERA/94 ERA+, 1.06 WHIP)
Gallen is perhaps the epitome of the Diamondbacks season thus far. He pitched well for three innings on Opening Day, then gave up a big inning. In his second start, he followed it up with a six inning, four hit scoreless outing. There is also the quality of opponent to consider as well. The blow up was against the most stacked team since I turned on force trades on MLB 2k, and the second start was merely against a good team. One thing that does stand out is the near complete lack of strikeouts so far. He’s only recorded four in two starts/10 IP.
A big free agent acquisition for the Mets, Peralta hasn’t made the best first impression so far. His season has mirrored Gallen’s for the most part, actually, but giving up four runs in five innings to the Dodgers would be understandable, four runs to the Pirates is less so. He followed it up with a one run performance against the Cardinals, so it’s in the process of balancing out. Unlike Gallen, though, the strike out pitch is working for Peralta, as he has racked up seven in both starts so far.
Game 2 — 4/8, 1:10 PM — Ryne Nelson (0-1, 5.79 ERA/72 ERA+, 1.17 WHIP) vs. David Peterson (0-1, 4.66 ERA/89 ERA+, 1.96 WHIP)
Ryne Nelson was passed over for the Opening Day start. Ryne Nelson has done nothing to make Lovullo and Hazen regret that decision since. In both of his starts so far he has pitched 4 2/3 inning. The first start against the Dodgers he gave up four runs. His second start… a whopping second. Sure, he wasn’t helped at all by some truly crappy defense behind him, but he didn’t help himself either. It was an ugly game, and he shouldered at least some of the blame for it. He’ll be looking for a bounce back in this series, but it won’t be a soft landing to make it happen.
David Peterson was a first round draft pick for the Mets way back in 2017, and while he’s been a feature of the Mets rotation since he joined the big league club back in 2020, he’s never consistently lived up to that draft selection. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this season he’s had two starts. One was a scoreless outing against Pittsburgh, but the Giants lit him up for six runs in the other start. Only difference between everyone else I’ve mentioned here is that he had his starts backwards. Good start first, bad start second. Other than that, he fits right in.
Game 3 — 4/8, 4:10 PM — Eduardo Rodriguez (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) vs. Nolan McLean (1-0, 2.61 ERA/157 ERA+, 0.87 WHIP)
Today I learned that you can’t have an ERA+ if you haven’t given up a run. The Diamondbacks erstwhile ace takes the mound in the series finale. I’m not sure if it’s his noticably leaner physique, still amped up from the World Baseball Classic, or just finally healthy, but this version of Eduardo Rodriguez is the best case scenario from him. He pitched five scoreless against the Dodgers, and then he leveled it up with seven scoreless against the Braves. His strikeouts are lower than normal, but so are his walks, so his SO/BB is 2.67 compared to his career at 2.85. I don’t know how long this is going to continue, but it sure is fun in the meantime.
McLean was a mid season callup for the Mets and pitched incredibly well in the eight starts he got in. He had an ERA+ of 197, giving up 13 runs in 48 innings pitched. He isn’t quite as dominate so far this season, but he is still holding his own and then some. Look for a start of five innings and two earned runs from the young righty.
Conclusion
I like the Diamondbacks odds this series. Gallen pitched very well in NYC last season, and I think he’ll continue where he left off against the Tigers. E-rod might not continue his scoreless streak, but there’s no reason to think that he isn’t going to continue pitching well anyway. Nelson is a bit of a concern, though. On the flip side, the offense is catching a couple of these pitchers at the right time, and maybe some of our bigger hitters can use the opportunity to get right. Either way, I think the Dbacks take the series 2-1.
