Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer takes his team to Rio de Janeiro in his second season with a 1-1 record through two games.
How can the Cowboys get an early statement win to string together two in a row after beating the Commanders, against a Ravens team coming off a home loss to the Saints? What is the biggest challenge the Ravens present to the Cowboys to right their ship under first-year HC Jesse Minter? Let’s take a closer look.
The Dallas Cowboys will beat the Baltimore Ravens if…
they win on early downs on both sides of the ball.
So much of the buildup for this matchup between a Cowboys
team that was second in the NFL in points scored in week two, and a Ravens team that was second in week one (behind only the Bears’ scoreboard-breaking 59 points) has been about the skill players and big-play potential from both quarterbacks.
No matter how good these groups are, games are still won and lost at the line of scrimmage, and this is where the Cowboys will need to put together their most complete game of the season.
Starting with the Dallas defense against the Baltimore offense, the Cowboys will be facing a mobile quarterback for the second week in a row in Lamar Jackson. They’ll also be depleted in the secondary without Cobie Durant and P.J. Locke against Rashod Bateman, Devontez Walker, Chris Moore, and Mark Andrews.
This is a game where the Cowboys defensive front needs to make their money, particularly the interior tackles that have yet to make as big of a splash as expected through two games. The Ravens offensive line has graded out well in run blocking, but the matchups will be there for Kenny Clark, Quinnen Williams, and Otito Ogbonnia to win at the point of attack and try to limit Derrick Henry – especially on early downs. Doing so will be the key to earning pass rush opportunities in longer down and distances to allow Donovan Ezeiruaku, Rashan Gary, Malachi Lawrence, and even Von Miller, to assert themselves into this game.
Both starting guards and the Ravens starting center are new to their lineup. Rookie first-round draft pick Vega Ioane will be making his third start at right guard. Jovaughn Gwyn has been in the league since 2023, but played his very first snaps on offense as a starter in week one for this year’s Ravens. John Simpson is a veteran left guard, but one the Cowboys saw last year when he was with the Jets, and won that matchup handily. In fact, Simpson was the Jets’ lowest PFF graded player for the whole offense in that game.
It’s still no easy task, but if the Cowboys defensive front can have their best game of the season, Christian Parker’s scheme can commit enough bodies to the coverage umbrella to limit downfield shots, keep eyes on Jackson when scrambling, and keep the Cowboys own offense within striking distance of winning this game.
Those strikes will have to be delivered by Prescott through the air for the most part, as confidence in Dallas running the ball well consistently right now is low. A hallmark of a Jesse Minter defense is not being moved off the ball at the point of attack easily, but the Cowboys will need to force themselves to try and find some balance in their approach offensively.
Early down runs that actually keep the offense on schedule and don’t feel like wasted plays would help Dallas control this game with their best players on the field, the defense resting on the sideline, and the Ravens most dynamic players also on the sideline without the ball in their hands.
The Dallas Cowboys will lose to the Baltimore Ravens if…
they can’t contain Derrick Henry outside the tackles.
Through two games, the ageless Derrick Henry is second in the NFL in rushing yards and tied for first in touchdowns. His best runs have come outside the tackles, as we see on these two charts via Next Gen Stats:
While it’s true that the Cowboys defense saw some encouraging things from rookie linebacker Jaishawn Barham at the MIKE position and Dee Winters against the Commanders, this Ravens game could easily be a fall back to reality for a group that’s still unproven. Barham is still a rookie starter at a somewhat new position, wearing the green dot and trying to get a lot of new players lined up properly.
There will be even more new players in the Cowboys defensive lineup against the Ravens as they deal with injuries, and the tackling from this group against such a big, physical back like Henry is a major concern. Rookie Caleb Downs has performed well in this area, but Dallas is using him close to the line of scrimmage in a lot of assignments. When Henry is able to break contain and get on the edge, the Cowboys will need an answer for who can get the angle on him, and more importantly bring him to the ground.
Henry has also caught all four of the passing attempts thrown his way this season, proving he’s still a one-man gameplan wrecker on any given Sunday. Turning and handing the ball off could also prove to be the safest plan for both teams on offense, as the footing and condition of the field surface has been a concern all week leading up to kickoff. The Ravens come into this matchup with a huge advantage on paper when it comes to Henry’s production compared to Javonte Williams as the lead back for the Cowboys.
