The New England Patriots took full advantage of their fourth-place schedule in 2025, more or less cruising through the regular season en route to a 14-3 record, division title, and the No. 2 playoff seed in the AFC. In order to find similar success in 2026, they will have to show that last year’s performance — which ended with a loss in the Super Bowl — was no fluke.
To do so, the Patriots will have to go up against a tougher slate than last year’s (even though the supposed sixth-toughest strength
of schedule does not tell the whole story). How they will fare is anybody’s guess at this point in time, with ours being relatively optimistic: Pats Pulpit beat writer Brian Hines gave the team a 12-5 record in his instant predictions following last week’s schedule release.
Needless to say, not everybody sees the reigning AFC champions in the same light. In fact, if we reverse-engineer a season prediction based on what other experts think about New England’s 17 games, we can see that they are bound for a massive step back.
Week 1 at Seahawks
Patrick Hood (Field Gulls): Patriots loss
Much like how things went in Super Bowl 60, the Seahawks should have a handle on the Patriots in this season’s kickoff game. Although New England will be a bit more battle-tested this time around, Seattle is still on top of the league until proven otherwise. The Seahawks will most likely win by one or two scores to open the season 1-0.
Record projection: 0-1
Week 2 vs. Steelers
Ryan Bickley (Behind the Steel Curtain): Patriots win
Last year, the Steelers needed a whopping five defensive turnovers to defeat New England by one touchdown. And the Patriots only improved throughout 2025 en route to a Super Bowl appearance — and at this point in 2026, they might’ve added AJ Brown.
Record projection: 1-1
Week 3 at Jaguars
Gus Logue (Big Cat Country): Patriots win
Drake Maye’s scrambling ability could give Jacksonville fits, especially if A.J. Brown is down there somewhere, and the DT duo of Milton Williams and Christian Barmore is even more of a threat. Even the most distracting fan-made Rusinni posters may not make much of a difference. Jaguars 14, Patriots 23
Record projection: 2-1
Week 4 at Bills
Matt Byham (Buffalo Rumblings): Patriots loss
What to make of the Patriots based on 2025? Well, they figured out how to make great luck work in their favor until the end. Can we know much about New England in 2026 with three games in the books ahead of this Week 4 game? Perhaps not.
Is Buffalo losing this game? You’d like to think no, especially with the drama that’s sure to follow head coach Mike Vrabel. Still, remember that in 2025, the Bills dropped one at home to the Pats. It’s not happening this time. Get the troughs, and rally ‘round the personal massage devices! Be sure to let Tom Brady know that Buffalo’s hotels have no room for him, too. He can sleep in the parking lot if he draws this matchup as an announcer.
Record projection: 2-2
Week 5 vs. Raiders
Matt Holder (Silver and Black Pride): Patriots win
Las Vegas ended up pulling off one of the biggest upsets in the NFL last year by taking down New England on the road. We just didn’t know that at the time, since it was the season opener. But the Patriots are a much different team than back then, coming off the heels of a Super Bowl run.
Record projection: 3-2
Week 6 vs. Jets
Nick Faria (Jet X): Patriots win
The Jets have undoubtedly improved their roster talent; they just aren’t going to be good enough to walk into Foxborough and beat the New England Patriots.
There are only so many upsets the team can predict at this point.
Record projection: 4-2
Week 7: at Bears (TNF)
Ryan Droste (Windy City Gridiron): Patriots loss
“I am going to go with the Bears in this one. I know that there was a lot of hype around Drake Maye last year … and I think toe-to-toe Drake Maye is a solid quarterback who’s going to have a lot of success in the league for a long time, but I’m taking Caleb 10 times out of 10 over Drake Maye, personally. I think Caleb and the Bears win this game at home.”
Record prediction: 4-3
Week 8 at Dolphins
Kevin Nogle (The Phinsider): Patriots loss
Will the Patriots be the defending AFC Champions or will they regress to a mid-pack team in 2026?
Record prediction: 4-4
Week 9 vs. Packers
Jacob Westendorf (Sports Illustrated): Patriots loss
A trip to Foxborough against the defending AFC champions will be a bit of a litmus test for where this Packers team stands in the middle of the year. Mike Vrabel’s team will be well coached, and Drake Maye can make plenty of plays at quarterback.
The Patriots were fortunate last season with a softer schedule, which to their credit they took advantage of. This time, the Packers will steal a win on the road thanks to a big game from Micah Parsons, who should have a good matchup against a Patriots offensive line that struggled to end last season.
Record prediction: 4-5
Week 10 at Lions (Germany)
Jeremy Reisman (Pride of Detroit): Patriots win
I just have a bad feeling about this game. I can’t really explain why. Thankfully, there will be plenty of beer around to drown my sorrows.
Record prediction: 5-5
Week 12 at Chargers (SNF)
Jeremy Brener (Bolts from the Blue): Patriots loss
Another primetime matchup comes with the Patriots traveling to LA. The Chargers will want revenge after the Pats beat them in the Wild Card round back in January, so this is an all-important contest for the Bolts. Despite only scoring three points in the playoffs, the Chargers will show that they can learn from their mistakes.
Record prediction: 5-6
Week 13 vs. Bills
Matt Byham (Buffalo Rumblings): Patriots loss
If Buffalo wins the first matchup (Week 4), then it’s fair turnabout to say New England figured a few things out in the nine weeks between the two meetings. Still, I’m picking the Bills here. The Patriots could be better than last season’s team and even better than they were in Week 4, but I sense revenge will be on Buffalo’s mind all season long. And they’re going to need this game.
Record projection: 5-7
Week 14 vs. Vikings (TNF)
Joe Nelson (Sports Illustrated): Patriots win
This Thursday night game continues the trend of Minnesota being forced to go on the road for a Thursday nighter against a very good team. The past three seasons have seen the Vikings play on Thursday nights against the Chargers, Rams, and Eagles, respectively, and it won’t get any easier in 2026.
Record projection: 6-7
Week 15 at Chiefs (MNF)
Ron Kopp Jr. (Arrowhead Pride): Patriots loss
This “Monday Night Football” matchup in Arrowhead will always bring back memories of the 2014 beatdown of Tom Brady. A similar beatdown feels like a stretch to suggest, but there is reason to believe the Patriots will regress like many Super Bowl losers do the following year. I wouldn’t be surprised if New England were in a position to be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss here.
Record projection: 6-8
Week 16 at Jets
Nick Faria (Jet X): Patriots loss
With this shocking win over the Patriots — yes, New England will not be infallible this year, despite the eventual acquisition of A.J. Brown — the Jets position themselves to get over .500 for the first time in over a decade.
Unfortunately, this will be the team’s last win of the year if my predictions hold true.
Record projection: 6-9
Week 17 vs. Broncos
Laurie Lattimore-Volkmann (Mile High Report): Patriots loss
It sucks this is in Foxborough because that’s a hard place to play in winter. But Denver is looking for revenge because they absolutely should have been in the Super Bowl last season, so there are some scores to settle here. Feels stressful for three quarters before Denver pulls away late.
Record projection: 6-10
Week 18 vs. Dolphins
Kevin Nogle (The Phinsider): Patriots win
The season ends with the Dolphins visiting the Patriots, which is the same way Miami’s 2025 season ended.
Record prediction: 7-10
The Patriots going 14-3 against what on paper is a far more challenging lineup of games seems like a fairly unrealistic projection. Is the same true for the 7-10 we get when going through the predictions above? Possibly, but there is no telling at this point in time: predictions are snap-shot opinions based on knowledge that might very well be outdated come a specific game.
What is more interesting about those predictions, though, is that they reflect what had been a common criticism of the Patriots’ schedule last year (and this year, if we ask the Chargers’ social media team): that they were playing a cupcake schedule and were punching above their weight all year, until getting knocked out by a superior Seahawks team in the Super Bowl. That critique of New England’s 2025 season will not go away anytime soon, because there is in fact some validity to it.
That said, no two seasons or teams are alike. And the 2026 version of the Patriots in many ways seems to have improved, which in turn could mean that any projected step back might not be quite as drastic after all.
But again, time will be the ultimate judge of that.
