The Portland Trail Blazers find themselves on pace for participation in the 2026 Western Conference Play-In tournament. The 10th-placed franchise seems destined for the lower half of the four-team tournament, free from challenge from the five teams below given the rush for NBA Draft Lottery positioning.
The Blazers aren’t out of contention for the upper Play-In positions, but given their recent play, 9th or 10th would be a safer bet. They’re likely to be joined in the tournament by the Phoenix Suns,
Golden State Warriors, and ever-dangerous Los Angeles Clippers.
Today we discuss which of these opponents the Blazers might be best placed to face during the April tournament.
Play-In Tournament
A quick refresher. Each season, across both conferences, teams finishing between 7th and 10th play off for that conference’s bottom two playoff seeds.
To decide said seeds, the 7th-placed team hosts the 8th-placed team. The winner secures the seventh seed in the overall playoff bracket, one of two Play-In tournament winners.
In the meantime, the 9th and 10th teams in the conference also play each other. The winner of that game faces the loser of the 7th-8th place game to determine who will claim the eighth and final spot in the overall playoff bracket.
Now that we’ve established that, let’s look at the competitors.
Phoenix Suns
Record: 39-28
Blazers Season Series: 1-2 (series complete)
Rankings: 26th in offense, 6th in defense
the Suns could find themselves in the fifth or sixth spot in the overall bracket, free of the Play-In process, but for right now they appear favorites to finish seventh. The Blazers logged their solitary win against the heavily-depleted Suns last month after being handled by the Arizona franchise earlier in the season.
By the time the Play-In rolls around, Phoenix will likely have regained the services of Dillon Brooks, Mark Williams, and Grayson Allen. With Devin Booker, Jalen Green, and my personal favorite Collin Gillespie, the Suns have begun to predicate their game on pesky defense rather than offense alone.
Like the Blazers, the Suns have been snake bitten by injuries. Unlike the Blazers, they’ve managed to maintain a level of defense that has enabled them to keep pace with some of the more prolific scoring teams even without their full roster. Their low offensive rating is misleading for the fact that that’ve rarely had Booker, Brooks, and Gillespie on the court together.
Lining both squads up against each other with relative health, these two teams are pretty close. Both have a rookie head coach guiding a collection of talented role players with a star or two sprinkled in. The Suns have made the best of their opportunities and own the better defense, but when it comes to winning the one game, it might be closer than most think.
I give Phoenix the edge because of Booker, a 29-year-old scorer in his prime who has been to the NBA Finals and know what’s required in the postseason. Yes, Jrue Holiday has championship experience and Deni Avdija has been superb this year but I think Booker is the best player across both teams.
Los Angeles Clippers
Record: 34-32
Blazers Season Series: 0-2 (two games left to play)
Rankings: 23rd in offense, 10th in defense
If we forget the first month of the season, the Clippers would be vying for a seed at the top of the Western Conference. They’ve turned a 6-21 start into a winning record.
With Darius Garland and Benedict Mathurin on board, courtesy of the recent NBA Trade Deadline, they’ve maintained offensive output despite losing James Harden and Ivaca Zubac. They now field a roster filled with experience, versatility, and suffocating defense.
I like what Kris Dunn has done over the past three years. There’s savvy vet Nic Batum, versatile Derrick Jones Jr., and Bogdan Bogdanovic and John Collins have proven to be effective on both sides of the ball. Let’s not forget this team is coached extremely well by Tyronn Lue.
Losing Zubac was hard, but this team still scares me on offense and defense, especially if Kawhi Leonard is on the court. The Clippers are my least favorite option for the Portland matchup. Let’s just hope the two teams don’t meet in the Play-In.
Golden State Warriors
Record: 32-34
Blazers Season Series: 3-1 (series complete)
Rankings: 19th in offense, 12th in defense
The Warriors are finally looking human with real holes in their roster, particularly following Jimmy Butler’s right ACL injury this season. Steph Curry turns 38 today and Draymond Green is no longer the uber-effective role player he once was.
Though talented, Golden State’s supporting cast is headlined by Gui Santos, Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody. All are flawed. I like Portland’s chances in this matchup. The Blazers have dominated the season series and chances are high that the game will be held at the Moda Center. That gives the Blazers a real edge.
Curry is obviously a concern but the Blazers have enough defensive talent at guard and on the wing to nullify. Toumani Camara, Holiday, Kris Murray, and Matisse Thybulle can each spend time on the future Hall-of-Famer.
The Warriors are coached well enough to stay competitive. One of their lesser players always seems to step up too. I just think a full-strength Portland team has a little too much offense and the right pieces to shutdown any offensive threat from Golden State.
Conclusion
The Blazers are all but locked in for a Play-In spot next month. But the next four weeks will dictate who they face and how real their chances of making the NBA Playoffs are. While there is no ideal opponent, facing the Warriors is probably the best-case scenario.
After the Warriors, I’d much prefer the Blazers end up facing the Suns over the Clippers. L.A. has been one of the best teams in the league over the past two months.
Which of these three opponents would you rather face? Share in the comments below!
