UFC Rio is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 11, 2025) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In the main event, former Lightweight champion Charles Oliveira collides with Mateusz Gamrot in a high-stakes contender bout.
We have a weekly series here at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in Brazil when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so tell us your most confident
UFC Rio betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Rio odds here).
Last week’s recap: We smashed last week’s lock as Jiri Prochazka knocked out Khalil Rountree at UFC 320.
Let’s keep on, keeping on below:
On UFC Rio’s main card, submission ace Joel Alvarez is welcomed to the Welterweight division by UFC veteran Vicente Luque in what will be a violent affair.
This week, I’m locking in Alvarez vs. Luque Under 1.5 Rounds (-145).
Here’s why:
If there’s one thing Alvarez guarantees, it’s chaos. The 32-year-old Spaniard owns a perfect 100 percent finish rate — all 21 of his professional wins have come inside the distance, with a ridiculous 17 first-round finishes (four in the Octagon). His rangy frame, aggressive striking, and slick submission game make him one of the most dangerous starters in the promotion. Once he hurts you or gets your neck, it’s usually over within minutes.
That’s bad news for Luque, who’s absorbed years of punishment in all-out wars with the likes of Stephen Thompson, Geoff Neal, and Niko Price. The once iron-chinned “Silent Assassin” simply doesn’t have the same durability he used to. Even in recent wins, he’s shown slower reactions and less resistance to damage. Against a finisher like Alvarez — who thrives on early momentum — this matchup feels tailor-made for a quick, decisive ending.
The Under 1.5 covers both sides, too. If Luque catches Alvarez early with a clean counter or lands his patented D’Arce choke, that also cashes the ticket. Either way, the styles guarantee violence.
What could go wrong?
Luque has never been finished in the first round — ever. Even in his losses, he’s displayed remarkable toughness and survival instincts. If he can weather Alvarez’s early storm and drag him into deeper waters, the Spaniard’s aggressive pace could backfire. A slower, methodical fight past the midpoint would sink the Under.
Still, given Alvarez’s history and Luque’s fading durability, Under 1.5 Rounds (-145) looks like one of the most explosive and reliable betting locks on UFC Rio.
For what it’s worth, this X/Twitter user says stay away from this fight:
- Vicente Luque To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +800
- Vicente Luque To Win By Submission: +1200
- Vicente Luque To Win By Decision: +1200
- Draw: +5000
- Joel Alvarez To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +140
- Joel Alvarez To Win By Submission: +165
- Joel Alvarez To Win By Decision: +550
LIVE! Stream UFC Rio On ESPN+
Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!
Where to Buy:
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Rio fight card, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Rio: “Oliveira vs. Gamrot” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
