The Chargers are 0-4 and many believe the odds show a team that could be winless deep into the month of November. After this week’s game against the Broncos, the Chargers face the Chiefs, have a bye in Week Seven, then face the Rams, Texans, and Ravens in the subsequent weeks. Finally, on November 22nd, they play the Jets which looks like their best shot at a getting their first victory.
But what if I told you that this week, against a Broncos team that does NOT look all that great on paper, could
be their closest chance at getting in the win column well before then?
The Broncos are in the bottom third of the league most offensive and defensive categories through the first month of the season. So are the Chargers, but that’s what makes this matchup close to a coin flip! Jim Harbaugh and Co., at home, could not only earn a much-needed win, but also get to .500 in the AFC West by beating Denver.
I’m not going to sit here and give you much more than the little hope I can glean from the stat sheet, but when there’s next to nothing else to be optimistic about this year, we have to take what we can get.
With that said, here are the three things I’ll be watching for when these two teams take the field in SoFi Stadium this weekend.
1.) Which bad offense will manage to come through for their team?
The Chargers enter Week Five ranked 21st in total offense (306.8) but 29th in points per game (16.5).
The Broncos are currently ranked 28th in total offense (280.3) while they’re averaging 18.5 points per game (27th).
So while they are scoring more points per game, the Chargers are moving the ball at a better clip (that’s really weird to say but it’s true!).
Sunday’s matchup may actually be a closer fight than the football world is giving it credit for. The numbers on both sides of the ball for Denver are really not that much better, if at all, than the Bolts.
The biggest difference between the Chargers at 0-4 and the Broncos at 2-2 has been the lack of turnovers by quarterback Bo Nix. He’s thrown one more touchdown pass than Herbert and has half the interceptions (three) in the same span. That’s the margin it seems.
So if the Chargers wish to steal a win at home, it looks like the main goal is to keep their stat sheet clean, but if I haven’t mentioned it yet, that’s going to be a hard ask given the state of the offensive line.
2.) What will Omarion Hampton’s workload look like?
Since the beginning of the season, Hampton’s workload has seen a steady decline. This past Sunday, he received the smallest snap share between him, Keaton Mitchell, and Kimani Vidal. Despite that, he was the most-efficient player and arguably looked the best when running, as well.
Mike McDaniel told reporters that Hampton’s workload decrease was not because of the two fumbles he lost against the Cardinals and Raiders. However, I think that’s just him saving some face for the former first-rounder. Otherwise, I truly don’t think it makes much sense given the efficiency numbers between the three.
It also seems like McDaniel is forcing the ball too much to Mitchell, but that’s a whole other tangent to go on.
After having a solid game against the Seahawks and scoring his third touchdown of the season, I’m intrigued to see if McDaniel rewards him for ball security and production in his smaller sample size. The Broncos are currently allowing 142.8 yards on the ground per game. That’s 29th in the NFL and should be a massive green light for the Bolts to lean upon him this week. But then, once again, comes the rough reality of the state of the offensive line.
3.) Can Chargers take advantage of ravaged Broncos secondary?
The Chargers offense is catching a huge break this week as the Broncos are more than likely going into Sunday’s game without cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss. Those aren’t just their starting cornerbacks, but two of the best young corners in the entire league, including the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year in the NFL.
In most weeks, this would be some of the greatest injury news you could hear coming out of the opposition’s camp. However, can the Chargers even take advantage of these injuries this week? Ladd McConkey has not practiced this week yet. Rookie Brenen Thompson took a step back and sat out Thursday’s practice after being limited on Wednesday. Quentin Johnston has logged two limited sessions and obviously isn’t 100 percent.
That leaves Tre’ Harris as the current WR1 for the team, but let’s be honest, he was already that after Week Four due to leading the team in both yards and receptions on top of being the only one who can stay healthy week-to-week.
Prior to losing Surtain and Moss this week, the Broncos were already allowing 232.3 passing yards per game this season which ranked 22nd in the league. Take out their top guys and the expectation is that this will be one of the easiest units to throw against in Week Five.
But that leads me to another question: With the Chargers potentially starting multiple rookies, will Herbert even have the time to find his receivers? Will it even matter that Surtain and Moss are out?
Seeing how bad things were when the likes of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt were still healthy, I don’t know how much positivity I have for this week.
