With the Ducks dropping their first regular season game in 2 years they are now behind the 8-ball for getting to the B1G championship game. Should Oregon drop another game in the 2nd half of the season then they could be on the fringes of making the college football playoff and their resume could be put under a spotlight.
With that in mind today I wanted to take a deeper dive into Oregon’s resume. Where it stacks up thus far and what will be the big games down the stretch.
Before getting into the nuts
and bolts of each game Oregon’s traditional Strength of Schedule currently sits at 26th in the nation.
However S.O.S is a flawed stat, had Oregon beat Indiana, Indiana would have a worse record and Oregon’s S.O.S would be lower, it’s a metric that indirectly punishes winning.
Oregon’s strength of record, a stat that tries to account for this, currently sits at 12th. This will become more relevant as we get closer to selection Sunday as the contenders and pretenders separate themselves in the 2nd half of October, but for now it is worth monitoring that Oregon has a good Strength of Record.
The Completed Half of the Schedule
Game 1 Montana State
- Record: 5-2 (3-0 Big Sky)
- FCS Ranking SP+: 5th
- FCS Ranking Coaches Poll: 5th
Since opening the season against Oregon, Montana State lost a heart-breaker in O.T to fellow FCS contender South Dakota State but have since righted the ship winning 5 straight games and affirming that they are one of the best teams at the FCS level this year. It won’t move mountains but as many FBS college football playoff contenders also play FCS teams, I think Oregon’s dominant showing over one of the best FCS teams is worth the smallest of hat tips.
Game 2 Oklahoma State
- Record: 1-5 (0-3 Big 12)
- SP+ Ranking: 123rd (Worst of the P4)
Things have gone from bad, to worse, to disastrous in Stillwater since the Cowboys were humiliated by the Ducks in early September and it should not be surprising. The very next game Oklahoma State played they lost to Group of 5 Tulsa which was the final straw for Mike Gundy who was then promptly fired marking the end of an era in Stillwater. The game that was supposed to be Oregon’s non-con resume booster will be dragging down Oregon’s resume, thanks a lot Cowboys. Good thing the Ducks made it look embarrassing.
Game 3 Northwestern
- Record: 4-2 (2-1 B1G)
- SP+ Ranking: 68th
In a surprise that no one saw coming Oregon’s 34-14 win on the lake, and 34-0 before garbage time, is currently the Ducks best win of the season based on what transpired Saturday. Northwestern’s games against Purdue, at Nebraska, Michigan, and at Illinois will be games for Duck fans to keep an eye on. If Northwestern can pull 2 wins off amongst those 4 they will be a bowl team and provide a small boost to the Ducks resume.
Game 4 Oregon State
- Record: 0-7
- SP+ Ranking: 125th
Here is a funny stat. The last two teams Oregon has beaten fired their head coach this past weekend. This may go down as one of the worst seasons in Oregon State history and that is saying something as there is plenty of competition for that very non-illustrious title. At the moment the Beavers are the worst team on the Ducks schedule per SP+. If this series is going to continue hopefully the new coach Oregon State hires can at least get the Beavers to be respectable.
Game 5 Penn State
- Record: 3-3 (0-3 B1G)
- SP+ Ranking: 18th
As is tradition for Dan Lanning’s marquee wins, Penn State has gone out and done their best job to immediately tarnish the quality of said win.
While Penn State is still 18 in SP+ it would shock me if they finish that high in the advanced stat metrics to end the season. Right now the Nittany Lions appear to be the definition of a falling knife, vibes could not possibly be any worse, and it would not shock me if Penn State miss a bowl game. With the college football playoff hopes gone perhaps the Nittany Lions can turn things around for this season and at least finish on a strong note, but I have my doubts.
Game 6 Indiana
- Record: 6-0 (3-0 B1G)
- SP+: 3rd
With Indiana’s upset win over the Ducks, they are now only 1 of 11 unbeaten teams in FBS. For resume purposes if you are going to lose, you might as well lose to a good team, and Indiana appears to be one of the best teams in college football. With their toughest game of the season out of the way Indiana should be favored in all 6 of their remaining games. The Hoosiers are a legitimate B1G title contender and will absolutely be in the discussion for the College Football Playoff
The To be Completed Half of the Schedule
While the college football playoff expanding from 4 to 12 has made losses less crucial then in years previous losses can still be devastating for making the field. With one loss now sustained for Oregon the Ducks can probably only afford dropping 1 game in the back half of their schedule to make the field. To secure a bye or a home game the Ducks will likely need to run the table the rest of the way. The good news is that in this moment the Ducks will be favored over each of their final 6 opponents per SP+. The bad news is that while 3 of these games Oregon will be comfortably favored in, the other 3 are definitely losable as the projected spread per SP+ is less than 8 points.
Game 7 Rutgers
- Record: 3-3 (0-3 B1G)
- SP+ Ranking: 51st
- Projected Spread SP+: Oregon -15.5
Rutgers is an interesting team this year. They might be the rare Big Ten Team that has one good and one disastrous side of the ball but the good side is their offence.
Similar to Northwestern, Rutgers goal for the season will be to make a bowl game. To do so, the games Duck fans should keep an eye on would be at Purdue, at home against Maryland, and then at Illinois.
Game 8 Wisconsin
- Record: 2-4 (0-3 B1G)
- SP+ Ranking: 74th
- Projected Spread SP+: Oregon -28.5
In the pre-season Wisconsin was seen as an ok team that had one of, if not the most difficult schedule in college football. For the 3rd straight year the Badgers lost their starting QB early in the season and as a result they have really struggled since. It’s surprising to me Luke Fickell still has his job as Wisconsin is barreling towards a 2nd season without making it to a bowl game which would be the longest bowl drought for the Badgers since the early 90’s.
Game 9 Iowa
- Record: 4-2 (2-1 B1G)
- SP+ Ranking: 25th
- Projected Spread SP+: Oregon -6.0
The first of the 3 projected close games for the Ducks in the back half of the schedule is the Ducks trip to Kinnick stadium to take on Iowa
Death, taxes, and Iowa’s terrible offense letting down great defense. Normally in my articles I like to dispel over used stereotypes about teams, players, and coaches and look at the actual results. But whatever your perception of Iowa football is in your head is 100% accurate. It wouldn’t be one of my articles without a hastily thrown together chart I created in excel. But here I’ve attempted to capture the degree to which Iowa’s defense has dragged it’s offense along since 2019.
Each year I took Iowa’s F+ Offensive Ranking – Iowa’s F+ Defensive Ranking. The higher the value means the more exaggerated the difference was between defensive quality and offensive ineptitude. For example in 2023 when Iowa had the 3rd best defense per F+ and the 124th best offense per F+ in a display of one of the greatest 1/2 teams of all time the value is higher. I also plotted Oregon’s F+ Defensive ranking – F+ Offense ranking as the Ducks have largely been carried by offense during this same time period.
Do you remember 2022 when Oregon had a championship caliber offense but a defense that didn’t couldn’t keep up? Well Iowa has experienced the inverse of that (but worse) 6 times since 2019 and this year is another example.
All that being said about the Iowa offence, a tough defense in a hostile environment will be a massive challenge for the Ducks. The O-Line, QB, and play caller will need to get a lot better between now and November 8th if the Ducks are going to pull of the win.
Game 10 Minnesota
- Record: 4-2 (2-1 B1G)
- SP+ Ranking: 58th
- Projected Spread SP+: Oregon -23.0
From Iowa, to red and gold Iowa, Minnesota has the same record as the Hawkeyes, and are similarly carried by their defense as well. The big difference is the under lying quality of the teams, at least per advanced metrics. That combined with this game being at Autzen stadium and this is the final game of the Ducks season that projects to be a comfortable Oregon win.
Game 11 USC
- Record: 5-1 (3-1 B1G)
- SP+ Ranking: 14th
- Projected SP+ Spread: Oregon -8
This season appears to be the first season Lincoln Reilly’s team has improved from the previous season at USC. After two straight campaigns where the Trojans embarrassed themselves they are 5-1 and competing for a college football playoff bid. For the first time in a long time November’s game against the Trojans in Autzen is shaping up to be a big game between the hated old PAC-12 rivals and could have massive playoff implications.
Game 12 Washington
- Record: 5-1 (2-1 B1G)
- SP+ Ranking: 21st
- Projected SP+ Spread: Oregon -4.5
Washington’s season to date has not been very interesting to me but the back half of their schedule is very interesting to me. What I mean by that is, thus far the Huskies season has gone just as a I expected from a win loss perspective. However the 2nd half of their schedule includes all of the swing games from the Huskies that will determine if they will be playoff contenders or if they will be heading to a middling bowl game.
Those games are this week at Michigan, and then when Illinois comes to town October 25th. If the Huskies win both of those then the final game of the year becomes a huge one in the Pacific Northwest.
