Since I started writing on Blogging The Boys in 2010, I’ve repeatedly and consistently argued that the key to a successful season for the Cowboys will be an improved passer rating differential, and there is no reason that assessment should change.
In 2025, the Cowboys combined a Top 10 passing offense (96.8 passer rating, ranked seventh in the league) with an atrocious pass defense (109.6) that ended up 31st in the league. The resulting passer rating differential of -12.8 ranks 25th in the NFL.
For
decades, the NFL talking heads have conditioned us fans to look at volume stats like passing yards or rushing yards, yet the number of yards you accumulate or give up has almost no correlation with whether you win or lose a game in the NFL. How much someone passes or runs for is important in fantasy football, but has next to nothing to do with winning in the NFL.
Today, winning in the NFL is all about passing efficiency. Last year, the 14 playoff teams all ranked within the top 17 teams in Passer Rating Differential (PRD). The table below shows those 14 playoff teams (marked in green) and where they rank relative to the non-playoff teams.
| Rk | Tm | OPR | DPR | PRD | Rk | Tm | OPR | DPR | PRD | |
| 1 | Bills | 102.1 | 79.8 | 22.3 | 18 | Falcons | 85.3 | 88.4 | -3.1 | |
| 2 | Rams | 108.0 | 87.0 | 21.0 | 19 | Saints | 86.6 | 91.8 | -5.2 | |
| 3 | Eagles | 94.7 | 75.4 | 19.3 | 20 | Chiefs | 84.4 | 89.9 | -5.5 | |
| 4 | Seahawks | 96.3 | 77.9 | 18.4 | 21 | Cardinals | 90.1 | 97.6 | -7.5 | |
| 5 | Patriots | 111.3 | 93.1 | 18.2 | 22 | Giants | 86.2 | 94.3 | -8.1 | |
| 6 | Chargers | 87.2 | 75.0 | 12.2 | 23 | Buccaneers | 88.0 | 97.5 | -9.5 | |
| 7 | Texans | 88.0 | 76.2 | 11.8 | 24 | Bengals | 89.5 | 99.4 | -9.9 | |
| 8 | Lions | 103.6 | 92.5 | 11.1 | 25 | Cowboys | 96.8 | 109.6 | -12.8 | |
| 9 | Jaguars | 89.3 | 78.5 | 10.8 | 26 | Vikings | 72.1 | 86.0 | -13.9 | |
| 10 | Broncos | 86.8 | 78.7 | 8.1 | 27 | Raiders | 77.7 | 96.4 | -18.7 | |
| 11 | Packers | 100.6 | 92.7 | 7.9 | 28 | Dolphins | 85.1 | 105.3 | -20.2 | |
| 12 | Ravens | 93.8 | 89.6 | 4.2 | 29 | Commanders | 83.7 | 104.0 | -20.3 | |
| 13 | Colts | 91.0 | 88.0 | 3.0 | 30 | Browns | 67.4 | 90.0 | -22.6 | |
| 14 | Steelers | 92.4 | 92.2 | 0.2 | 31 | Titans | 75.4 | 108.3 | -32.9 | |
| 15 | Bears | 89.5 | 91.4 | -1.9 | 32 | Jets | 71.6 | 110.9 | -39.3 | |
| 16 | Panthers | 85.8 | 88.2 | -2.4 | ||||||
| 17 | 49ers | 97.6 | 100.5 | -2.9 |
The key to the Cowboys making the playoffs in 2026 will be an improved passer rating differential. Don’t trust anybody who tells you otherwise.
We’ve repeatedly shown that passer rating differential is one of the stats most closely linked to winning in the NFL. The Cowboys already have a top ten passing offense, so there isn’t really that much room for improving the passer rating differential via the offense. That leaves the defense. It stands to reason that if the Cowboys want to win more games this year, they’ll have to do it via an improved pass defense.
You could argue that part of the solution for the Cowboys’ pass coverage woes will have to come from an improved pass rush. After all, the Cowboys’ sack total of 35 was the lowest since 2020, and if you assume that getting to the QB should result in increased sack/fumbles, inaccurate throws, or tipped passes, that would also explain the 12 takeaways the team had last year, the worst total since 2015.
But that ignores that the Cowboys actually led the league in pressures last year, generating QB pressures (hurries, knockdowns & sacks) on 31.2% of all snaps, they highest value they achieved since ProFootballReference.com started tracking the metric in 2018.
It stands to reason that the high defensive passer rating is really about the pass defense and not the pass rush. Here’s a breakdown of the components making up the defensive passer rating, and where the Cowboys ranked in each metric last year:
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Completion Rate |
Yards allowed per pass attempt |
TD percentage |
INT percentage |
|
| Value | 68.5% | 8.1 | 6.3% | 1.1% |
| NFL Rank | 29th | 30th | 31st | 30th |
This is on the secondary, and while we might discuss whether it was scheme, or coaching, or player talent that was the root cause, the change to a 3-4 defense, the free agents added this year, and the new coaching hires are primarily an effort to address the weak Cowboys pass defense.
Will the Cowboys get it right? the odds are agaisnt them, but it’s not impossible. Three teams very recently demonstrated what it takes to turn around a bottom 10 defense into a top 10 unit – in just one year.
- 2023 Detroit Lions: From 2023 to 2024, the Lions improved their defensive passer rating (DPR) from 91.5 to 82, climbing from 20th to first in the league – in just one year.
- 2023 Philadelphia Eagles: From 2023 to 2024, Philly improved their DPR by an impressive 15.1 points (from 97.6 to 82.5) jumping from 29th in the league to the third spot – in just one year.
- 2024 Jacksonville Jaguars: From 2024 to 2025, the Jags improved their DPR by a staggering 23.6 points (from 103.4 to 79.8) rocketing from 31st to fifth overall – in just one year.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys DPR got even worse (99.5 to 109.7) from 2024 to 2025, dropping them from 28th to 31st in the league.
So what did the Lions, Eagles, and Jaguars do to fix their defense in just one season? They had a single-minded focus on fixing the pass defense, and here’s the blueprint:
- New defensive coordinator: The Eagles brought in Vic Fangio, the Jags hired Anthony Companile as DC out of Green Bay, the Lions stuck with Aaron Glenn, who would translate the defensive turnaround in 2024 into a head coaching gig with the Jets.
- Free Agency: The Lions brought in two cornerbacks (Carlton Davis, Amik Robinson), both of whom had been starters for their previous teams. The Eagles also signed a starting CB in C.J. Gardner-Johnson. The Jags also signed two starters, CB Jourdan Lewis and safety Eric Murray.
- Draft: In 2024, Detroit drafted two cornerbacks with their first two picks (1st: Terrion Arnold, 2nd: Ennis Rakestraw). That same year, Philly drafted two cornerbacks with their first two picks (1st: Quinyon Mitchell, 2nd: Cooper DeJean). Last year, Jacksonville drafted two defensive backs with their first two picks (1st: CB Travis Hunter, 3rd: S Caleb Ransaw; Jaguars did not have a second-round pick)
The Cowboys brought in a new defensive coordinator, including a complete staffing overhaul on defense. In free agency, the Cowboys brought in a starting safety (Jalen Thompson), as starting cornerback (Cobie Durant) and another safety/cornerback with one starter season (P.J. Locke).
Talent is expensive in the NFL, either in terms of draft capital or in contract value, and if you want an upgrade for your pass defense, you’ll need to invest in both. The Cowboys would be well advised to double-dip at defensive back with their first two picks.
And if you still think that a good pass rush is half your pass defense, consider that in 2024, when the Cowboys were third in total sacks and still had Micah Parsons, they ranked 28th in defensive passer rating.
Today, winning in the NFL is all about passing efficiency. The best offenses are those that pass the ball the most effectively, the best defenses are those that prevent their opponents from passing it effectively. The best teams in the league are those that do both most effectively.
