The greatest tournament in sports is here. The multi-week sprint to Indianapolis for the Final Four began with the First Four earlier in the week, and fully tips off Thursday at noon. So it’s only right that someone on this site puts out a bracket prediction. An idea that could be awesome, or regrettably bad.
Michigan is the betting favorite to win it all at +380 according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The Wolverines are closely followed by fellow No. 1 seeds Arizona (+400), Duke (+460), and Florida (+700).
We had a chalky Final Four a year ago, with all four one-seeds making it to San Antonio. I think we may see something resembling a repeat of that but who knows? We’ll see how these picks age as the tourney unfolds. Hopefully I don’t embarrass myself here.
East Region
The East is LOADED with Hall of Fame coaches. We have Rick Pitino, Bill Self, Tom Izzo, and Dan Hurley all clumped into one region. As a result, I’ll take the over on whatever the line is for total technical fouls given in this region. Hurley might surpass whatever that hypothetical number is by himself, honestly. But I won’t count out Self.
No upsets at the top of this region. Duke’s had some hilarious March losses, but a 1-16 is not in the cards this year. I sat here for a while eyeing a potential Northern Iowa upset. And for as well as the Panthers dig in and defend, I couldn’t bring myself to do it. But if Pitino strolls out of the locker room in an all-white suit, that might make me scramble to change my mind. What a horrible look that always is.
I have the majority of this region being chalky. UConn, Michigan State, Kansas, and UCLA all advance rather easily in my mind. I am, however, on the USF bandwagon here in the first round. Mikel Brown Jr. remains out for Louisville in this game. The Bulls haven’t lost a basketball game since January 31st and have five guys all averaging 11 or more points per game. Scoring depth plays in March. I’ll hang my hat on that for the upset.
In what would be two awesome matchups, should they happen, I have Duke staying the course despite still at this point *probably* not having Caleb Foster at least, and maybe also still without Patrick Ngongba in a game against the Jayhawks, and the Huskies marching on to meet the Blue Devils for a chance to get to Indy. Give me Hurley and UConn to punch a ticket out of this region out of respect for the championship DNA and the fact that I don’t want to entertain the idea of another Duke Final Four. The Huskies save America from having to endure that for a second-straight year. Thank you, Dan Hurley. You lovable psychopath.
West Region
We go chalk again for the first round of this region. Picking BYU terrifies me, with Richie Saunders no longer on the floor for the Cougars after an ACL injury sidelined him for the season. Wisconsin and Andrew Rohde beat High Point in a barn-burner, Purdue stays hot after that Big Ten title game win, thanks to veteran guard play from Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, and the Razorbacks survive the Rainbow Warriors’ best shot.
I don’t love the fact that I am putting my faith in every single high-seed in the round of 32, but here we are.
AJ Dybantsa is good. Really good. But a matchup with Gonzaga is where I see his likely one and only March appearance coming to an end. The Zags are just too balanced. And I’m a sucker for reliable defense in March. Arizona advances with little resistance from Villanova (it’s impossible to root for Villanova to do anything with a coach who spurned his former school as bad as Kevin Willard did Maryland. The basketball gods don’t forget stuff like that, even if it happened to Maryland) with Matt Painter and John Calipari both getting back to the Sweet 16.
A Darius Acuff-Koa Peat matchup would be fireworks on the second weekend. Acuff had a monster of an SEC tournament with two 30-plus point games en route to an SEC title. Peat hasn’t been too shabby either, having just put up 21 points and six boards in the Big 12 final against Houston. I have Arizona meeting Gonzaga in that Elite Eight game, a matchup between two program’s that have been March choke artists in recent history. I’m on Arizona to advance out of here, but Gonzaga puts up a valiant effort on behalf of the West Coast Conference.
South Region
Of all four regions, the South is where I have most of the chaos going down, though not that it’s that crazy in its entirety. McNeese showed they were more than just Will Wade a year ago, having reached yet another tourney, but as much as I wanted to pick them as a 12-5 winner, I think Vandy will be up for the task after falling short of an SEC title. Troy upsets Nebraska and ends what was a magical year in Lincoln.
The VCU Rams add another blue-blooded victim to their resume, beating Carolina who, without Caleb Wilson on the floor, looks like a completely different team. Don’t sleep on VCU’s backcourt. Terrence Hill Jr. earned the rare combo of First-Team All-Conference, Sixth-Man of the Year, and Most Improved Player in the Atlantic-10. He can really shoot it from three and Brandon Jennings sets the tone defensively.
To me, the most volatile team in this entire bracket is Illinois. Keaton Wagler can be the best player on the floor in any game, but boy is this team inconsistent against better teams, despite its size and talent. I’m putting my trust in the the Illini, though I won’t be surprised in the slightest if they blow it in the first or second rounds. They’ll see Houston in the Sweet Sixteen, which continues its revenge tour with little drama by beating the brakes off both Idaho and St. Mary’s.
Guard play is the story in a hypothetical Florida-Houston matchup. Kingston Flemings hasn’t seen the correct level of respect as a member of this ridiculously good freshman class and the Xaivian Lee/Boogie Fland combo owns the collective experience fit for another run to the title game.
Another top-seed goes to the Final Four. Give me the Gators to earn a chance to defend their crown.
Midwest Region
More chalk! Saint Louis is the only lower seed I have getting out of the first round. I pulled Michigan into the Elite Eight before picking the rest of the region, Texas Tech survives despite not having JT Toppin on the floor, and Tennessee proves to be too much for a Miami-Ohio team that somehow couldn’t stop making every single dang three-pointer it put up against SMU.
Alabama advances, in spite of itself, to face the Red Raiders; while the Virginia Cavaliers finally end their painful tournament drought, beating Wright State like a drum and avoiding being the butt of every joke for another tourney.
The shooting proves to be huge and on the back of what might be the best rim-protection of any team in the bracket with how Ugonna Onyenso has played as of late, I have UVA marching on to the Sweet Sixteen before falling to Iowa State in the Blake Buchanan-bowl. Every year I’ve picked UVA to get to a Final Four, it hasn’t happened. I’m going back to the 2019 playbook and choosing them to honorably win a few games, but nothing too ridiculous. Here’s to hoping the reverse jinx works here.
Michigan lives up to what it did in the Big Ten this year, and gives Dusty May another Final Four appearance.
Final Four
(2) UConn vs. (1) Florida
It’s not quite the four No. 1 seeds like last year in the Final Four, but it’s obviously pretty darn close. Florida knocked UConn out in last season’s second round. And in a ‘passing of the back-to-back title-winning team torch’, I have the Gators, thanks to being juuusst a bit more reliable on the offensive end of the floor.
(1) Arizona vs. (1) Michigan
I am on the Wildcats here. And I am a believer that they are the team of destiny after all those years or being a tournament letdown. The Wildcats not only get to the title game, but win it. Tommy Lloyd cements his legacy in Tucson, doing what he and Mark Few could never with Gonzaga, win the title and cut down the nets, against a Florida team that comes up just short of giving us another back-to-back championship-winner.
