The Steelers and Browns will meet on Thursday Night Football to open the NFL’s Week 4 — and who would’ve thought the winner will take the lead in the AFC North?
Both Pittsburgh and Cleveland, with new head coaches, have endured some early-season struggles to emerge with a 2-1 record to open 2026. Now, it’s a short-week divisional game — both teams will be vying for yet another gritty win on Thursday night.
What to expect from the Browns’ offense
Rushing YPG: 87.7 (29th)
Passing YPG: 178.3 (28th)
PPG: 18 (24th)
RB: The Browns offense, much like
the team as a whole, is in a weird spot right now. Stuck with quarterback Deshaun Watson for another season and enduring a 34-10 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, it looked like Cleveland’s season was over right about when it began.
But although the overall metrics still aren’t great, Cleveland has managed to put together just enough offensive production to enjoy a two-game winning streak entering Week 4, with a 23-19 win over the Buccaneers and a 21-18 win over the Carolina Panthers in the last two weeks.
The Browns are one of three AFC North teams to have a new head coach in 2026, with former Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken taking on the role while also being Cleveland’s play caller. Under Monken, Cleveland has used some of his signature heavy-personnel tendencies (tight formations, a healthy dose of fullback Michael Burton), but are a primarily 11 personnel operation. According to NFL Pro, Cleveland currently uses it 64.7% of the time, while Monken’s highest 11 personnel rate in Baltimore was 47.2% in 2023.
Some of that willingness to use more receivers has come from the Browns retooling the position group in the draft with the additions of Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion and Washington’s Denzel Boston.
Concepcion, playing primarily in the slot so far, certainly hasn’t been bad, but he and Watson have struggled to connect despite the rookie seeing a number of snaps and targets. But with incredible quickness and primary usage in the short game, he remains a yards after catch threat.
However, the budding star on the Browns offense to start the season is Boston, who has emerged as a legitimate Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate through three games with nine catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. The big-bodied wideout is a smooth mover with great hands who has developed good chemistry with Watson in the intermediate passing game.
While the Browns are primarily a short passing game (Watson averages just 6.6 yards per attempt), Monken’s passing concepts emphasize in-breakers that find spots in zone, and motion before the snap and into the routes to give receivers some early momentum. That’s created some easy completions; per NFL Pro, the Browns’ 4.5 yards of separation per target is the best mark in the league. Cleveland’s 71 yards after the catch over expected is also the NFL’s seventh-best mark.
Still, Watson hasn’t always been able to take full advantage of his talented group of pass catchers, which also includes young tight end Harold Fannin Jr.
While Watson has a 4-0 touchdown/interception ratio over the last two games, he had at least two almost-interceptions and a number of other misses against the Panthers in Week 3.
Still, Watson hasn’t lost all the traits that used to make him a productive passer in the NFL. He can be a bit of a one-speed thrower but still possesses a powerful arm. He’s also been impressively mobile at times in 2026, even if his throwing off-platform comes with highs and lows.
Still, Watson has already amassed 105 rushing yards on the season. And according to NFL Pro, while he’s faced 12 unblocked pressures this season — good for third-most in the NFL — he has not been sacked on any of them. He’s done a good job of slipping by rushers in the pocket.
Watson has had to scramble more because the Browns offensive line remains a work in progress. Through three weeks, Cleveland has allowed the eighth-highest pressure rate (39.4%) and the third-worst sack rate (9.8%).
The running game has been similarly unsteady. Cleveland has the sixth-worst rushing success rate in football (33.3%), with the offensive line often looking uncoordinated, especially on the team’s zone concepts. Running backs Quinshon Judkins and Raheem Sanders are hard-nosed, downhill backs, but haven’t always been able to get a runway through three weeks.
I wouldn’t expect those line troubles to be fixed on a short week ahead of Thursday Night Football. Tackle Tytus Howard (knee) and guard Teven Jenkins (back) were limited in Tuesday’s practice, while center Elgton Jenkins did not participate in concussion protocol. And while healthy, both guard Zion Johnson and rookie tackle Spencer Fano have been shaky at times early in the season.
This is a flawed Browns offense, and Pittsburgh should be able to find some success if its pass rush can consistently win against a struggling Cleveland line and force mistakes from Watson.
Still, Watson and the Browns’ developing group of offensive weapons have managed to get the job done in recent weeks, with Watson tossing a go-ahead touchdown in each of the team’s last two games to earn a win. Sure, “the Browns is the Browns,” but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some exciting players in this offense.
What to expect from the Browns’ defense
Rushing YPG Allowed: 120.3 (23rd)
Passing YPG Allowed: 224.0 (18th)
PPG Allowed: 23.7 (18th)
RP: Much like the Steelers, the Browns defense has undergone some significant transformation since these teams last met. The headliner here, of course, is that the team traded away perennial All-Pro Myles Garrett during the offseason. But Cleveland also has a new coaching staff, which means this defense is no longer the blitz-happy unit it was for the past three seasons under Jim Schwartz. Instead, the Browns have a first-time coordinator in Mike Rutenberg.
So far, Rutenberg and the Browns are blitzing far less. In the three seasons under Schwartz, the Browns’ blitz rate never dipped below 28.2% in any given year. In 2026, the Browns are blitzing at a 23.3% clip, the ninth-lowest figure in the NFL. And yet, the Browns appear to be having even greater success than they did just a year ago. Last season, according to Next Gen Stats, the Browns created pressure on 38.1% of opposing dropbacks. In 2026? Their pressure rate currently sits at 42.2%.
Seeing those numbers threw me for a bit of a loop, especially when I dove deeper into some of the other pass-rushing metrics provided by Next Gen Stats. While the Browns are tied for fifth in the NFL in total pressures (49) and 11th in total sacks (7) through three weeks, they don’t appear to be all that threatening on a consistent down-to-down basis. While the unit ranks highly in those two raw counting stats, they are in the bottom half of the league in three metrics that would seem contradictory to their relatively high sack total and pressure rate:
- Average time until pressure — 2.70 seconds (20th)
- Average opponent’s time to throw — 3.03 seconds (sixth-highest)
- Average get-off — o.83 seconds (T-19th)
Even more puzzling, none of Cleveland’s top-five pressure leaders — Jared Verse (9), Mason Graham (9), Derek Barnett (8), Isaiah McGuire (8), and Maliek Collins (7) — rank in the top-40 of the NFL. Barnett in particular has a strange profile this year, as he’s tied for second on the team in pressures, but he’s played just 33% of the defensive snaps (66 total) as a pass rush specialist.
So to spell it out a little more plainly: somehow, the Browns are top-five in pressures and nearly top-10 in sacks, despite giving opposing quarterbacks some of the longest time to throw, blitzing at a bottom-10 rate, and being one of the slower teams to get off the line, meaning they don’t have much twitch from their frontline. Sure, players like Verse and Graham are talented, but they haven’t exactly been lighting the league on fire in pressure numbers. Verse has yet to record a sack, but Graham’s four sacks have accounted for over half (57.1%) of the Browns’ sack total, to his credit.
So what gives?
I think the answer to this riddle lies in the stats I bullet-pointed above. While I don’t think the Steelers can afford to sleep on the Cleveland pass rush, I think the Browns are being the beneficiary of some noisy stats thanks to two of the teams they’ve played: the Buccaneers and Panthers. If we pop the hood on those offenses, we’ll find that Baker Mayfield (2.99 seconds, 8th-highest) and Bryce Young (3.02 seconds, 7th) are among the NFL passers who hold on to the ball for the longest period of time.
Look a little further, and you’ll find that 43 of the Browns’ 49 pressures (88%) came against Mayfield (17 pressures) and Young (26 pressures). In Week 1, when the Browns played Trevor Lawrence — who has the 12th-quickest average time to throw at 2.82 seconds — the Browns managed only six pressures. Truthfully, Lawrence held onto the ball a little longer than normal against the Browns’ coverage (2.98 seconds), so that just shows how much the Jacksonville blocking scheme neutralized Cleveland. Mayfield matched his season average against the Browns, but Bryce Young took even longer (3.09 seconds).
The Carolina game has done a lot to juice those pass-rushing totals too. Remember the Browns’ top pressure creators? Here’s what percentage of their season pressure total came from last week’s contest:
- Verse (66.6%)
- Graham (55.5%)
- Barnett (62.5%)
- McGuire (50%)
- Collins (42.9%)
My point being, if the Steelers offensive line can play as well as it did against the Bengals, Pittsburgh should hold a clear advantage. Aaron Rodgers is averaging 2.89 seconds to throw so far this season. Last week, that figure ballooned to 3.19 seconds, as Rodgers was arguably given some of the best pass protection in his time with the Steelers. Prior to facing the Steelers, the Bengals were giving opponents an average of 2.97 seconds to throw. If Pittsburgh can slow Cleveland down in a similar manner, Rodgers should have plenty of time in the pocket.
Where this gets trickier, of course, is how effective the Steelers receivers can be against the Browns’ secondary. While the pass rush may have less teeth than it did a year ago, Cleveland returns all of last year’s starting defensive backs. It should be noted that cornerback Tyson Campbell (knee) and safety Grant Delpit (shoulder) were limited participants in practice on Monday and Tuesday, but the Browns seem to think they are trending in the right direction, especially Campbell, who missed last week.
The rest of the Browns secondary is made up of five-time Pro Bowler Denzel Ward, nickelback — and one of my first draft gems — Myles Harden, and safety Ronnie Hickman.
Should Campbell end up missing time, or leave the game with injury again, the Browns went with Mekhi Blackmon in his stead a week ago. Blackmon was heavily targeted (13) and performed admirably, allowing six catches for 77 but a passer rating of just 65.2.
If Delpit misses any time, the Browns will likely turn to rookie Emmanuel McNeil-Warren. The rookie has mostly played on special teams this year, with just 15 snaps on defense. He’s been targeted just twice and has not allowed any completions.
Schematically, the Browns are running the highest rate of man coverage, especially Cover-1, in the NFL. That was true last year too, but through three weeks in 2026, they’ve leaned even heavier into that tendency. When not in man, they’re still leaning heavily into the single-high safety looks, running Cover 3 at a 33% clip. Altogether, they are in Cover-1 Man or Cover-3 Zone on 74.7% of their defensive snaps.
Compare that to just a year ago:
The Browns secondary has allowed the seventh-fewest yards after the catch (290), which is a testament to how well they tackle receivers downfield. However, there are plays that can be made against them, as they are just middle of the pack (15th) in terms of how much separation they allow receivers: an average of 3.4 yards. They’re also tied for the eighth-most touchdown receptions allowed with six.
Meanwhile, at linebacker, the Browns have a budding star in 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger. He and offseason acquisition Quincy Williams rarely leave the field, with Schwesinger playing 100% of the Browns’ defensive snaps, and Williams playing 94%. No other linebacker has played more than 19 snaps, as the Browns play a heavy dose of nickel packages.
But again, even as impressive as some of the individual talents on the Browns are, there are opportunities to be had in the run game. The Cleveland defense is ranked 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, 16th in yards before contact (1.22), 28th in yards after contact allowed (3.33), and they’ve allowed the second-most runs of 10-plus yards (13).
The Browns still have pieces of a good defense, but they are no longer as intimidating as they have been at times in recent years. They are a roster in flux and, as such, should provide the Steelers offense an opportunity to show that it has truly rounded a corner. While Thursday games are always tough due to the shortened week of rest and preparation, this should still serve as a barometer for the Steelers. If they struggle against this Cleveland team, we’ll need to question whether their Week 3 performance will be something they can tap into consistently the rest of the year. If they thrive, then perhaps McCarthy and his offensive system could be at the beginning of something fans can enjoy the rest of the way.
Let us know what you think in the comments. Be sure to bookmark Behind the Steel Curtain for all the latest news, breakdowns, and more!
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