Nolan Gorman has been a long term project in the Cardinals franchise with some obvious upside. The obvious upside, of course, is the fact that when he makes good contact you could build a statue of his pose and the homerun. If you put a Gorman bomb up against a sunset, you might actually watch the Gorman bomb. Fans that have watched for any amount of time know that those statue-esque shots have not been coming often enough in the last few years.
The calendar has ticked by into mid-May and Gorman is
running an 89 wRC+. He’s been more valuable than one might think because of a pleasant development on defense. There are games, and I can’t believe I’m going to say this, that he looks like he may be hanging out with the ghost of Nolan Arenado at third base to guide him. He’s currently in the 84th percentile in defensive value for all big leaguers. And, while defensive stats can notoriously flutter during a season, the eye test tells you he’s clearly on a different plane this season.
The purpose of this article is not to suggest that Nolan Gorman is a disaster. He’s not. He’s accumulated 0.4 fWAR thus far. While that’s not what anyone hoped for his value coming into the season, he’d end up at a passable 1.6 fWAR for the season at this pace. That’s playable, if disappointing. The bigger question comes if he remains Nolan Gorman, defensive specialist at the end of the year. The offensive rebuild clearly has four building blocks of varying degrees in Walker, Herrera, Wetherholt, and Burleson. Winn has been fairly good as well and his defense at short is going to keep him around for a while at a minimum.
Can you run a below average offensive third baseman long term if your goal is to compete for titles? The answer obviously comes with a multiplicity of variables around Gorman, but it’s not a strong case. So, what’s Gorman been doing this year to be stuck at his 89 wRC+? It’s a tale as old as time (well, as old as Gorman’s career anyway).
In short, Gorman is whiffing too much, but not providing enough power to offset his swing and miss game. He’s striking out 28.8% of the time, which is actually down a hair so far from his career high of 33.8% of the time last season. Can you be successful striking out at this rate? Well, let me introduce you to a gentleman named Jordan Walker who is striking out 28.4% of the time this season. So, the obvious answer is yes you can be successful, but you have to capitalize on your power at a healthy rate.
This is the perplexing part of Gorman’s game. The foundation for power is there. Statcast has him in the 94th percentile for Launch Angle Sweet Spot. Essentially, he’s launching the ball at an angle that should be doing damage. This stat tends not to be very predictive, but Statcast has tracked him at the very top of baseball in this metric his entire career. In other words, his swing shape produces the right angle of contact for big damage.
So if the K% isn’t great but also doesn’t prohibit him from being valuable offensively and his swing shape is producing the right kind of contact, where’s the hangup? He’s pulling the ball more than ever, hitting line drives and flyballs at career norms, so many of the normal sources aren’t much different than his career averages. What is different is how he’s currently handling changeups. The league has an obvious attack pattern and is exploiting it to the max.
Nolan Gorman is facing changeups over 20% of the time. That’s double his career averages, and has a ghastly -5.2 run value on them according to Fangraphs. For all his Launch Angle Sweet Spot brilliance, Gorman is only squaring up pitches in the 15th percentile and producing slightly below league average exit velos. The Cardinals have vastly limited his at bats against lefties this year, but righties are getting ahead of him and finishing him off with changeups that he’s just not handling well.
The Faustian bargain with players like Gorman is that their whiffs will be offset by prodigious damage on pitches they do handle (see Jordan Walker again). At this moment, Gorman is not holding up his end of that bargain and pitchers have found a weakness that they are currently maxing out in their pursuit of securing outs from Nolan Gorman.
Because whiffs will always be his chokepoint on offense, Gorman is already operating with a ceiling on his capability. This is not new. To put a fine point on the end of this article though, how much longer will the Cardinals stick with him at these production rates? He’s accrued over 2000 PA at the MLB level and is 1% below league average at a 99 wRC+. This is, once again, not a crisis point, and there’s no one at his position that is beating down the door to St. Louis (can Blaze Jordan be credible over there??). So, they’re unlikely to make a move in the immediate future.
But, Gorman has done nothing to disabuse the notion that he’s not a core piece going forward. He has time to adjust this season, but I think it’s fair to ask at this point if he’s capable of adjusting to the level that the Cardinals need him to adjust. Hitting is extremely difficult, but if Nolan Gorman is going to stick around, he needs to start handling changeups better.
So, let’s hear it. What do the Cardinals do if Gorman continues producing offensively at this rate for the rest of the year? Thanks for reading!
