It wasn’t a foregone conclusion that John Harbaugh would choose the New York Giants on the 2026 head coaching carousel.
While the Giants were the first and most aggressive team to pursue him, Harbaugh had nearly a third of the NFL as suitors — including several teams that weren’t nearly as bad in 2025 as the 4-13 Giants. But when Harbaugh agreed to become the Giants’ next head coach, part of the reason was because he believed they were much better than their record suggested.
Harbaugh had little interest
in a full-blown rebuild after being fired by the Ravens and believes that the Giants have a core of talent that would allow them to compete this year.
Most of the national media scoffed at the idea that the Giants could surpass mediocrity and be a real factor in the playoff hunt.
But the Giants — and Giants fans — have bought in.
After a month of training camp and preseason games, we asked the Big Blue View community how many more games you believe the Giants will win in 2026 than in 2025. It may be Optimism Season speaking, but fans think Harbaugh is right and the Giants could well be in postseason contention this year.
A full 88 percent of the Big Blue View community believes that the Giants will win at least 8 games this year, with more than half fans believing that the team will win at least 10 games in 2026.
That might seem like wild-eyed optimism considering the Giants have only won 7 games in the last two years put together. However, it’s a more measured improvement if Harbaugh is right that the Giants are a better team than their win-loss total says they are.
Earlier this week, Bill Barnwell wrote that the Giants — along with teams like the Ravens, Lions, and Chiefs — are among the five most likely teams to improve this year. His argument is that the way in which the Giants lost last year makes them a historic outlier and their point differential suggests a 7-10 team rather a 4-13 team.
That argument mirrors Harbaugh’s assessment from his own tape study before agreeing to terms with the Giants. The Giants had the talent to compete with good teams last year, but situational football, injuries, and poor coaching decisions snatched defeat from the jaws of victory too many times.
From that perspective, doubling the Giants’ win total would only constitute a modest 1-game improvement over what they should have been a year before. A 6-game improvement would mean a 3-game improvement over what their point differential suggests they should have been in 2025.
And considering all the off-season additions the Giants have made compared to their 2025 season, is an 8 or 10-win season that unrealistic?
After all, the Giants will have:
- HC John Harbaugh and DC Dennard Wilson
- TE Isaiah Likely (free agent)
- LB Tremaine Edmunds (free agent)
- WR Darnell Mooney (free agent)
- RB Najee Harris (free agent)
- CB Greg Newsome II (free agent)
- S Ar’Darius Washington (free agent)
- FB Patrick Ricard (free agent)
- P Jordan Stout (free agent)
- WR Malik Nabers (returning from injury)
- RB Cam Skattebo (returning from injury)
- EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (returning from injury)
- LB Arvell Reese (5th overall pick)
- OG Sisi Mauigoa (10th overall pick)
- CB Colton Hood (37th overall pick)
- WR Malachi Fields (74th overall pick)
Not to mention another year of development for QB Jaxson Dart, EDGE Abdul Carter, and CB Deonte Banks.
We’ll see whether the optimism is borne out in the regular season. But if Harbaugh (and Giants fans) are right, the 7.5-game over/under (per FanDuel) is significantly underestimating the Giants. Likewise, if the Giants exceed their expected over/under by that much, John Harbaugh should be the runaway favorite for AP Coach Of The Year — he’s currently the preseason frontrunner at +650 (also per FanDuel).
It may be optimism season, but Giants fans might have real reason to be optimistic this year.
