As we all know, the Nationals bullpen has been a mess. They have cycled through so many different options, with most being ineffective. The unit has blown a ludicrous 35 saves and their 5.02 bullpen ERA is the third worst in baseball. However, there are three relievers who have established themselves as keepers entering 2027.
Orlando Ribalta, Brad Lord and Will Dion should all feel relatively safe going into 2027. Lord and Dion have established themselves as effective multi-inning relievers. They
have solid stuff and a lot of deception. Meanwhile, Orlando Ribalta has become a reliable late inning arm who has a knack for getting out of jams.
The first pitcher I want to dive into is Ribalta because he is the only true late inning arm of the bunch. Ribalta is not some elite high leverage arm, but he has proven that he is solid and is not scared. Those are two qualities that are hard to come by in the Nats bullpen. I wrote about how he was a keeper about a month ago and those words continue to ring true.
For the season, Ribalta has a 3.77 ERA, but it has felt better than that. A big reason for this feeling is because a lot of his struggles have come in lower leverage situations. His biggestblowup outing of the season, which saw his ERA go from 3.20 to 4.05 came against the Rockies in a game that was already lost.
Since then, the big right hander has responded well. In his last two outings, he fired a scoreless 10th against the Marlins and shut the door against the Braves following some drama in the 8th. When the Nats need to get out of a tough spot, Ribalta is usually their best option. He is not perfect, but he is good enough to be a contributor in a solid bullpen.
He also has the stuff for high leverage as well. Ribalta averages nearly 97 on his fastball and has two nasty secondary pitches to go with it. His slider is his most used pitch and it generates a lot of chase. Ribalta uses his bugs bunny changeup to put away left handed hitters.
There are actually several advanced metrics where Ribalta performs very well. His 84.6 MPH average exit velocity and 36.7% chase rate both rank above the 95th percentile. In a perfect world, Ribalta would be a 7th inning guy, but right now he is the Nats best high leverage relief option.
The next pitcher I am going to discuss is the ultra-reliable Brad Lord. Over the last couple years, Brad Lord has been thrown in just about every role you can imagine. He has started some games and he has also been used in high leverage roles at times.
However, I think his best role is as a 2-3 inning bridge pitcher. This sort of role is becoming a lot more popular around the league, and the Nats seem to be really leaning into it. It is something teams like the Brewers use a lot and they are having a ton of success.
Lord’s best role is similar to Chad Patrick, who has had a lot of success in Milwaukee the past two seasons. You can use Lord either as a multi-inning opener like the Nats did yesterday or use him as a long man, but in medium to even higher leverage spots.
When Lord is on his game, he can just abuse hitters with his fastball. The low slot and horizontal movement makes it a tough pitch to pick up. Lord’s fastball run value of 13 is elite and he is doing this with two different fastballs.
His 4-seamer has run but also some ride as well. It gets on hitters and gets a surprising amount of whiffs. Lord actually generates a higher whiff percentage on his 4-seamer (25.2%) than any other pitch. His sinker works very well off of the 4-seamer getting a ton of run which generates ground balls at a high clip.
Lord absolutely deserves a roster spot next year and is a valuable contributor for this pitching staff. However, his inability to develop an above average secondary pitch likely relegates him to solid but not spectacular. We saw him try to mix in his slider and sweeper more, and his results suffered. Lately, he has gone back to his bread and butter of just pounding 4-seamers and sinkers.
For the year, Lord has a 3.58 ERA across 73 innings with 70 strikeouts. Those are not superstar numbers, but they get the job done. Not everyone on the roster has to be a star. You need quality role players like Brad Lord on your team.
The last pitcher who should have a job locked up has a similar role but a very different pitching style. When the Nats traded Foster Griffin, I saw the return as underwhelming. I still think there is not a ton of upside in it, but Will Dion has already established himself as an effective big league arm.
He has by far the smallest sample size of the three, but I think he has done enough to earn himself a spot on the 2027 team. For the season, Dion has a 3.38 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 37.1 innings. However, in 17.2 innings with the Nats, that ERA sits at only 2.04.
Despite only averaging 91 MPH on his fastball, Dion’s heater is very effective due to the 20 inches of IVB it generates. Hitters are consistently swinging under the heater due to that carry. Dion’s fastball actually gets a 26.9% whiff rate. His outing against the Mets was a masterclass in how to dominate with a low velocity heater.
Since coming to the Nats, Dion has really bumped up his changeup usage and it has worked. After throwing it around 15% of the time in Cleveland, he threw it 37.6% of the time in his first month with the Nats. The pitch generates whiffs at a 42.1% clip and the 13 MPH gap between his fastball and changeup really fools hitters.
Overall, Dion is an effective multi-inning arm who can be used in a number of different roles. Dion and Lord are two really nice bridge arms who can cover a lot of innings while being solid. That is a very important thing to have in modern baseball.
Ribalta, Dion and Lord are the three arms I see as locks, but there are a couple other names who could join them with a strong September. Erik Tolman is certainly trending towards being in the 2027 bullpen, but I just want to see him perform for a little bit longer before calling him a lock.
Clayton Beeter has been good at times and I think he likely will be on the roster. However, I have my doubts about Beeter. His control is poor even for a bullpen arm. Despite a sub-4 ERA, his FIP is 5.30, which is very bad. I just think he is too shaky to trust. Beeter being on the Opening Day roster would not be the end of the world, I just think he has more to prove.
Outside of that, there are a lot of roster spots up for grabs. This month will be key in seeing who has what it takes to last. Jared Simpson is another guy who has made a strong impression, but it has only been one outing.
I actually think the bullpen depth is in decent shape. There are pieces in the minors that intrigue me such as Yovanny Cruz, Ben Grable, Joe Glassey and the recently promoted Riley Cornelio. The priority this offseason should be getting that one lockdown option. If the Nats can figure out the 9th inning, I actually think everything else falls into place quite nicely.
