There is no escaping the gloomy feeling surrounding the Atlanta Falcons. A once-promising season has disintegrated into a demoralizing year of catastrophic losses and franchise-altering consequences. They
can’t win close games. They consistently struggle in the third quarter. They can’t find any semblance of consistency offensively. While strides have been made defensively, the unit allows far too many explosive plays. All these problems have culminated in another disastrous season for the franchise.
This roundtable was put together a few days before it was announced that Michael Penix Jr. would need surgery to repair his left ACL. The young quarterback’s play will still be discussed in the latest edition of the monthly roundtable. Other positions and coaches will be analyzed in this lengthy discussion. I am joined by Aaron Freeman, Cory Woodroof, Dave Choate, Adnan Ikic, and Tre’Shon Diaz for this one. If you haven’t read a roundtable before, you can view the discussions from September and October.
Focusing on his overall on-field performance rather than pondering his future post-injury, are you more encouraged or concerned about what Michael Penix Jr. showed in 2025?
Aaron Freeman: I have more concerns at this point. If Penix Jr. possesses a superpower, it centers on his arm strength and vertical passing ability. Yet, that ability was rarely seen this year, and when it was, he proved one of the league’s least efficient vertical passers. Without that strength on display to offset the weaknesses, too many of his flaws were exposed. Those include his ability to create off structure and outside the pocket, his ability to handle pressure, and his comfort level attacking the middle of the field and executing play action.
In his final two starts, we also saw increased inconsistency in his footwork and mechanics, resulting in inaccurate passes. The upside and potential remain high, but it’s hard to say we’re any closer to knowing if he’s the team’s long-term answer at quarterback than we were at the end of last season. There remain too many questions about his viability as an impactful starting quarterback. Questions that, given the uncertainty surrounding his future due to this injury, may remain a ways off from being answered.
Cory Woodroof: I liked what he was at his best. When he got the time from the offensive line and the receivers were able to get separation, he could rip it once he got into a rhythm. His processing looked sharp once he got comfortable. With all the uncertainty surrounding his health, you hope he’s able to build on that if and when he returns.
The tough part with Penix Jr. is that he needs a lot to be going right for him to shine. If he gets knocked off his spot, he tends to struggle in a snowballing effect. He’s a fair-weather quarterback at this point, and it’s unclear if he ever sees the field again for the Falcons. If he quickly recovers, maybe he’ll get the chance to keep that growth moving upward in better confines.
Dave Choate: I’m kind of in the middle, not to be that guy.
When we saw flashes from Penix Jr., they were extremely encouraging. For stretches, he was hitting any throw anywhere on the field with reasonable precision and a whole hell of a lot of velocity, and at times he showed sack avoidance and even scrambling abilities that made us daydream about Penix Jr. further growing his game. There was the outline of a really fun quarterback in there.
We just didn’t see it often enough, and the lows were worrying. Penix Jr. didn’t attack the middle of the field as consistently as we would have liked, his accuracy was downright terrible at times, and he made the same intentional grounding and dithering without scrambling mistakes repeatedly. He looked like a young quarterback with some real limitations in those moments.
I still firmly believe in the arm talent and think he can be a good quarterback in this league if he’s healthy and continues to work on his weaknesses; I just don’t know if we’ll ever see him at the peak of his powers.
Allen Strk: It’s difficult to give a conclusive answer on a talented player who produced enormous highs and maddening lows. The performances against Washington and New England showed Penix Jr.‘s capabilities as an aggressive passer who can be decisive and make accurate throws across all three levels. His composure when faced with adversity in the second half against Tampa Bay and Minnesota revealed a quarterback who can handle frequent blitzes and navigate through pressure with composure. Unfortunately, those notable games will be overshadowed by the games where his poor play completely derailed the offense.
His refusal to move in the pocket against Carolina in the first matchup prevented the offense from finding any rhythm in the air. How erratic he was against San Francisco and Indianapolis raised concerns from his ball placement to pocket navigation to processing. For a quarterback to become progressively more skittish when forced to handle collapsed pockets is alarming, considering that more experience should result in better decision-making.
I’m slightly more encouraged than concerned because his best games were hugely impressive. It also must be taken into account that the offensive scheme isn’t doing much to create high-percentage looks, and the supporting cast around him has been hugely disappointing outside of the main franchise cornerstones. There is plenty to be intrigued by on the field. That said, his latest devastating injury will make it extremely challenging for him to improve his mechanics next year, regardless of the infrastructure surrounding him.
Adnan Ikic: I feel like it’s cheating to say a little bit of both. Penix Jr. has definitely started improving in comparison to day one, especially with the touch on his passes and how he was looking in the last game against Carolina. I sort of hoped to see him make a statement in becoming THE franchise quarterback throughout the course of this season.
I just don’t think it ever happened. His apprehension of any contact with his mechanics and fundamental issues in particular has me severely questioning his ability to lead a franchise. This injury has just compounded those concerns.
Tre’Shon Diaz: I don’t feel any better or worse about Penix Jr. than I did coming into the season, and that does give me concern. I am not out on Penix Jr., but I am not naive enough to believe he doesn’t need serious work. His lower-body mechanics need refinement, and he needs to become more comfortable attacking the middle of the field.
That being said, I didn’t believe those things would be impossible for him to overcome. What I am sure of is that Zac Robinson is not the right coach for this journey. Penix Jr. needs a coach with more experience than Robinson or anyone else on this offensive staff can provide, but it’ll be on him to realize his own potential if any changes are made.
How many new starters will there be on the offensive line in 2026?
Aaron Freeman: Most likely none. The extensions of Jake Matthews, Ryan Neuzil, and Kaleb McGary, giving them guarantees through the 2026 season, were set up to run it back with this same starting five again next year and continue to build continuity. Given the team’s limited resources in terms of salary cap and draft picks, they will likely have to prioritize other areas beyond the offensive line. However, if there is one position most vulnerable to change, it would be at center, where the team could try and add some competition to push Neuzil.
Cory Woodroof: At this point, one or none. If a new coaching staff wants a new center, Neuzil isn’t locked into the job. He reminds me of Joe Hawley; he can play, sure, but he can be upgraded, too. Matthews and McGary have their faults, but they have their strengths, too. Plus, it would be hard to move on from either in 2026. Chris Lindstrom is obviously safe, and Matthew Bergeron should get 2026 at this point to prove he’s worth a second contract. Center feels like the possible move.
Dave Choate: Zero to one. I think they squeeze one more year out of Matthews, who is still playing at a reasonably high level and is an iron man, and that both Bergeron and Lindstrom will be back. It’s a bit trickier to project with Neuzil, but he’s been decent enough that he’ll get another year to grow on the job.
That leaves McGary. If he’s fully healthy, he’s back for another year with a better insurance policy behind him, like a young day two tackle. There’s a real chance the Falcons look at his injury history and decide not to chance it, either dealing him to recoup a pick or moving on in favor of a young player. I believe this team would like to keep continuity as much as possible, though.
Allen Strk: The offensive line could use an overhaul. More power and size would be beneficial, particularly on the left side. That could happen in the future if a new coaching staff comes in next season. Due to specific contracts and roster holes elsewhere, there will likely only be a new center. Matthews can still be relied on in pass protection. The chemistry between Lindstrom and McGary is a massive asset for an offense that struggles to create clear advantages. While Bergeron is regressing, it’s not as if he is a significant liability.
Neuzil’s issues getting to the second level affect the running game’s ability to produce more explosive gains. Opposing linebackers consistently beat him to the spot to make the necessary tackle, preventing Bijan Robinson or Tyler Allgeier from bursting into the open field. He has performed better than expected in pass protection. Failing to meet the standards of a run blocker in a heavy wide zone scheme hinders a running game that is built to take over games.
Adnan Ikic: My guess is no more than one, if you’re counting McGary as a returning starter. This team doesn’t have the resources to make wholesale changes. That number can rise to three or four over the next 3-4 years as this line will be aging out. Bergeron and Lindstrom are givens to stay. McGary just restructured his contract and will be back, which leaves Matthews and Neuzil as the replacement candidates. They can get at least one more year out of Matthews for what it’s worth.
Tre’Shon Diaz: I would say one at most, based on what we know today. The player who would be the easiest to upgrade from would be Neuzil. Neuzil hasn’t taken a step like the team had hoped. He’s a stopgap quality center, and finding a successor via the draft is a realistic goal for this team. It’s always better to be a year ahead than a year late, especially when it comes to building out the offensive line.
Is personnel usage Jeff Ulbrich’s biggest undoing in the last two narrow losses?
Aaron Freeman: The primary catalyst behind the defensive decline in recent weeks stems from opposing offenses figuring out how to attack this defense after their hot start. But if we want to narrow it down to the last two games and take that out of the equation, the Falcons’ defensive shortcomings stem mainly from their razor-thin depth and the fact that several young players are seeing significant snaps. Mistakes were inevitably going to happen.
Cory Woodroof: After watching the way they schemed against Tetairoa McMillan in the loss to Carolina, it’s hard to argue against that. Ulbrich should get a lot of love for what he’s done this offseason, but he’s not without fault. The run defense finally tightening up, only for the pass defense to lose its lunch, feels like an indictment on the coaching. The unusual variance in coverage assignments seems to be costing the Falcons right now. Ulbrich and company have to fix it.
Dave Choate: Yes. The ill-fated decision to squat in zone a lot against the Panthers was costly, but that also was likely informed by personnel availability. The slow, slow turn from JD Bertrand to Ronnie Harrison Jr. cost this defense dearly, even though Harrison makes plenty of mistakes himself, and the decision to start Natrone Brooks when Cobee Bryant showed well in his limited action and Keith Taylor held up impressively a week ago against the Colts feels like a huge mistake. The thought process for both getting chances was sound enough–Brooks is a really physical corner, for example–but the inability to turn away from those mistakes hurt the Falcons badly.
Of course, we’re talking about making the best of a bad situation on both counts, but that doesn’t totally let Ulbrich off the hook. I do think it’s hard to beat him up too much given the ingredients he’s trying to cook this particular meal with.
Allen Strk: How he set up the defense on pivotal third downs to allow Daniel Jones and Bryce Young ample time to make the necessary play to win those games was most perplexing. Although it’s perfectly understandable to play quarters coverage on third and long to eliminate passing windows, there has to be a player shadowing the quarterback to affect his processing. Jones easily scrambled for a 19-yard gain to put the Colts in a prime position to convert on fourth down. Young connected with McMillian on third and goal at the 12-yard line after Kaden Elliss was isolated against him in the slot. Both quarterbacks couldn’t have been more comfortable on those respective plays.
Defenses have to better set up schematically in those high-leverage moments. There are questionable personnel decisions, from not replacing Brooks after allowing multiple explosive plays to Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette to not playing LaCale London more to add size to an undermanned front. Not having a more concrete plan to contain McMillian in the slot can be highlighted. How Ulbrich has aligned the defense on third and long in recent weeks has been most significant in the team’s late-game failures.
Adnan Ikic: I would say it played a large part. He did finally pull Bertrand, which was long overdue, but it was too little too late. His rigid scheme isn’t helping, as you can only keep blitzing so often before it gets read and adjusted to. Seeing Elliss on an island with McMillan on a crucial late touchdown made me lose my mind.
Tre’Shon Diaz: In some ways, yes, but the lack of depth across the board has hurt the defense more than anything. It’s clear that Ulbrich wants to reward guys who he feels have earned the job. That is respectable and one of the reasons his players speak highly of him. His issue has been the leash he gives them. However, this defense is forced to rely on UDFAs and late-camp signings due to the team’s failure to build depth through the draft. Ulbrich definitely needs to be willing to move off players faster, but it’s clear injuries are taking their toll.
Which young player would you like to see be given more opportunities now that the team is out of the playoff hunt?
Aaron Freeman: None. Every young player who should be seeing significant snaps is getting them.
Cory Woodroof: Nick Nash. Call him up and see what he can do. The wide receiver room is abysmal with Drake London hurt; give him some reps.
Dave Choate: I think Bryant makes a ton of sense. He’s going to have his growing pains, but he was a priority UDFA for a reason; there’s legitimate coverage ability and physicality to work with here. The Falcons need to figure out their post-Mike Hughes plan at cornerback and should give Bryant some reps to see if he can begin to make a strong case. At the very least, he can push for a reserve role in 2026.
On offense, I need to see Chris Blair, Nash, or both. Blair has stuck around this long because he offers a reasonably effective receiving option in theory, while Nash has upside that’s worth exploring. With the receiving corps decimated by injuries, cuts, and players not panning out, there’s no real point in this passing attack flailing with guys who likely won’t be here in 2026.
Allen Strk: Bryant and Nash are excellent choices. Michael Jerrell should receive consideration. Although Elijah Wilkinson has filled in admirably at right tackle, it’s hard to envision him being in the team’s long-term plans. Jerrell possesses some intangibles that can be worth developing. There is no overlooking his pass protection woes in Seattle last season, although Ryan Grubb didn’t do him any favors with his offense being so pass-heavy and shotgun-dependent. A different scheme with a greater emphasis on running the ball could lead Jerrell in the right direction toward growing into a capable contributor.
Adnan Ikic: We’ve seen this team give plenty of run to the rookies, so I won’t name any of the young starters who are already playing. I want to see what they have in Bryant. There’s nothing to lose. I’d love to throw him into the fire and see if he’s for real, and if so, the team has found another undrafted free agent gem moving forward.
Tre’Shon Diaz: Considering the state of the room, I’ll go with Nash. He won the triple crown last year and has been stashed on the practice squad all season. The production from the receiving room has been awful outside of London, and the group needs a shake-up. Nash is already 26; he’s a finished product, and the Falcons need to see what they have. It also helps that Nash has likely had more reps with Cousins than Penix Jr. Bryant would be my second choice.
