Welcome to Week 10. The 18-Week NFL season is at its halfway point, and the trade deadline has passed. Most fantasy leagues have five weeks left before the playoffs start. Crunch time is here.
Six teams switched to a different quarterback in Week 9. It’s one week later and five more new quarterbacks are expected in Week 10, for Arizona, Baltimore, Las Vegas, Miami, and Minnesota. Three of those newbies will be making their first-ever NFL start. These quarterback replacements impact players at other
positions. I’ll highlight that as we go. Throw in a boatload of injuries and four teams on bye, and Week 10 could be a rough one for a lot of fantasy managers.
If you have a minute, check out the current wide receiver rooms for the Rams, Cardinals, and Colts. No, those aren’t made-up names you can use for phony phone calls. They’re real.
Bring on Week 10!
Stats of the Week
- Every team in the NFC North is at least three games over .500. That’s only happened in a division once, at any time, in NFL history. They all have at least six wins.
- From the penthouse to the outhouse: All four teams in the NFC South have three wins. You can’t even make this stuff up at this point.
- No division has ever put all four of its teams into the playoffs, but if the season ended today, all four NFC North teams would get berths in the NFC.
- Favored teams went 14-1 in Week 9, with only the Patriots losing.
- The Broncos have won 16 consecutive one-score games in the regular season – the longest streak all-time.
- The QB with the longest active win streak as a starter is…J.J. McCarthy, with six consecutive wins dating back to last season.
- Christian McCaffrey caught the 37th touchdown pass of his career on Sunday, moving him past Marshall Faulk for most by a running back in the Super Bowl era.
- The Raiders have given up 30+ points in six straight games, tying an NFL record.
- Fantasy stat No. 1: Ashton Jeanty’s receiving line on Sunday: Five catches for negative five yards.
- Fantasy Stat No. 2: Both the Bengals and Packers have two wide receivers in the Top-8 at the position on a fantasy points per game (FPPG) basis.
On to week 10. Note: NE @ DET is being played in Munich. Set those lineups early! Good news for those on the West Coast – this is the last international game of the season.
Bye Weeks: Bears, Broncos, Buccaneers, Eagles
Week 10 Rides, Fades and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Jahmyr Gibbs. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade, and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
Last week, my Rides, Fades, and Sleepers did well, with a lot more hits than misses, led by Fade of the Week Zay Flowers (3.8 fantasy points). You can check my work here.
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Ride of the Week: James Cook (vs. NYJ). Maybe Cook should be listed among the elite options. He’s quietly had a great season, with a touchdown in every week but one, but he hasn’t had that monster game yet (he hasn’t topped 22 fantasy points in a week). A surprising lack of work in the passing game, and Josh Allen gobbling up rushing TDs, has held him back. Well, I think this is the week. The Bills are 8.5 point favorites, and the Jets have a generous run defense. They’ve allowed the tenth most FPPG and fifth most rushing yards to opposing backs, plus 11 total TDs. Cook should smash this week.
Fade of the Week: Ashton Jeanty (@SEA). Jeanty hasn’t topped 10 carries or 27 rushing yards in his last five outings, and he hasn’t scored more than 13.5 fantasy points since his breakout in Week 1. Receiving work has kept him afloat, and I don’t know how that’s going to work in Fernando Mendoza’s debut, which couldn’t come in a worse spot than against Seattle. If the Raiders score ten points, I’ll be surprised. Their implied total is 17 and I think that’s unlikely. Jeanty is a clear sit for me this week.
Sleeper of the Week: DeMario Douglas (vs. DET). Douglas has emerged as New England’s top receiver amid all the injuries, and they’re going to need plenty from him against the Lions. He quietly put up three Top-12 weekly finishes at his position in the last five weeks. Detroit’s defense has played much better of late, but that was against Miami and Minnesota. They’re still allowing the seventh most FPPG to opposing WRs. This game has the second highest Vegas total of the week (51.5). Douglas is ranked outside the Top-25 receivers this week and that’s too low – he’s a solid WR2 this week.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Brock Purdy, and Joe Burrow; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Three QBs ranked in the Top-10 this week who I think will outperform:
Dak Prescott (vs. SF). The 49ers defense is playing well this season (ninth fewest FPPG allowed to QBs), but that doesn’t scare me off this pick. The 49ers’ offense is elite, even with all the injuries, and the Cowboys’ “defense” isn’t likely to offer much resistance. Dallas is going to need to score to keep up, and Prescott should be slinging it. The Vegas total for this game is one of the highest of the season (55.5).
Trevor Lawrence (@TEN). The risk here is that he won’t need to throw all that much – which happened last week against the impotent Ravens. I’ll take that chance. The Titans have allowed the fourth most passing yards in the NFL and they’ve also yielded three rushing TDs to opposing QBs. Thery also traded away their most impactful player in Jeffery Simmons. I think they’ll keep the game competitive for a while. Lawrence should do enough damage before the game is out of hand.
Jared Goff (@NE) has to be licking his chops after what Jordan Love did to New England’s secondary. It was big play after big play, and Goff can do that too with his excellent receiving weapons. I’m sure the Patriots will play better, but Goff was frustrated by Miami and Minnesota the last two weeks and is due for one of his big games.
Three others in the Top-12 who I like to beat their projections this week: Patrick Mahomes (@ATL), Tyler Shough (vs. CAR), and Jayden Daniels (@NYG). Daniels ran for over 100 yards and two TDs in the first meeting with New York (NOTE – bad weather could be an issue).
Sleepers:
Bryce Young (@NO) is always a tough call. He threw three TDs last week, and on the season he’s the QB11. But he’s been highly inconsistent, with four games with 20+ fantasy points and three with fewer than 14. I like him this week, against a mediocre (at best) New Orleans defense that’s bottom-third against QBs, and in a game that should be back-and-forth with plenty of scoring. He’s ranked outside the Top-12 QBs this week and I think he’ll have a Top-10 finish.
Other QB2-types to consider if you need it: Drew Lock (@LV, who is allowing a ton of points and the third most FPPG to opposing QBs), Geno Smith (vs. BUF), J.J. McCarthy (vs. WAS, allowing the fourth most FPPG to opposing QBs, but again, watch the weather), and Jacoby Brissett (vs. LAC).
Fades:
Jordan Love (vs. MIN) is playing out of his mind, and I wouldn’t sit him unless you’ve got another really good QB. But Minnesota’s defense is no joke, and on Monday night they held Josh Allen to a season-low 14 fantasy points. Love leads the NFL in passing yards, so this is quite the challenge. The Vikings have allowed the fewest passing yards and FPPG to opposing QBs. They’ve also allowed a league-low five touchdown passes. Two of those were thrown by Love in Week 1, and he also threw for a season high 389 yards in that game. The Vikings sacked him four times and they’ll be coming after him constantly on Sunday. This game is in Green Bay, which helps.
Kirk Cousins (@GB) played very well for the Raiders this season and comes in as the QB7 on the season. I wouldn’t rush to get him in lineups this week. He’s obviously familiar with the Minnesota offense but he just got there, and Green Bay’s defense is playing well. They’re allowing the seventh fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and have been getting a lot of pressure. Cousins is also not going to be asked to air it out all the time like he did in Vegas.
Dropping lower, here are some QB2s who fantasy managers could be considering this week, but that I’m avoiding if I can: Matthew Stafford (@ARI, he has no receivers, and the Cardinals held him in check the first time these teams met), Michael Penix, Jr. (vs. KC), Daniel Jones (vs. MIA), and Justin Herbert (@BAL).
I would not start any of the three QBs making an NFL debut.
Running back:
Elite options this week – Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, and Christian McCaffrey; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Three high-end backs in smash spots this week:
Chuba Hubbard (@NO) has one of the highest shares of RB touches in the league and will face a defense that’s allowing the most FPPG and second most total TDs (12) to opposing RBs.
Kyren Williams (@ARI) has seen his production fall off over the last month, and that’s partly because Blake Corum is getting a big chunk of the work. With the receiver room decimated by injuries, Williams should bounce back and be very busy on Sunday and especially near the goal-line. I also think he’ll see more targets than he normally does. The Cardinals are middle of the pack against the position, but it’s not a scary matchup by any stretch.
Jonathan Taylor (vs. MIA) didn’t get traded in the Colts’ fire sale, and there will be matchups where game script is going to be an issue for him. This shouldn’t be one of them. Miami’s defense is playing hard, but they’re starting a sixth-round QB making his first start which favors a good game script, and they’ve been tough to throw on so they get run on a lot. They’re allowing the seventh most FPPG to opposing RBs. Start Taylor with confidence like you did earlier in the season.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly projections: Jaylen Warren (@CIN), Derrick Henry (vs. LAC), Ollie Gordon II (vs. MIA), and look for Cam Skattebo (vs. WAS) to have his best game in a while, with rain likely and Washington without its starting defensive tackles.
Sleepers:
It’s hard to find sleepers at RB this week. A few lower-end options to consider if you’re stuck: Audric Estime (vs. CAR), Corey Kiner (vs. DET), Kaleb Johnson (vs. MIN), both Vikings backs (@GB), and if you’re really desperate, Kaelon Black (@DAL) and Emmett Johnson (@ATL) are long-range dart throws.
Fades:
Bhayshul Tuten (@TEN) feels like a smash this week, but two things give me pause: (1) Ankle/foot injuries that kept him out of practice to start the week and could be an issue, and (2) A game script that could result in him not seeing that much work if he plays but isn’t 100%. Keep an eye on his practice reports and status.
Tony Pollard (vs. JAC) was on fire before the bye, so start him if you need him. It’s a tough matchup, as the Jaguars allow the second fewest rushing yards per game and FPPG to opposing RBs and have been putting opponent after opponent into catch-up mode.
Three backfields to avoid in their entirety: Arizona (vs. LAR, fifth fewest FPPG allowed to RBs and no clear lead back), Washington (@NYG, seventh fewest FPPG allowed to opposing RBs, also a shared backfield), and the Chargers (@BAL, eighth fewest FPPG allowed to opposing RBs but it doesn’t even matter who this sorry unit is playing).
Other RB Fades: Quinshon Judkins (vs. HOU), and Jadarian Price (@LV).
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja’Marr Chase AND Tee Higgins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Malik Nabers; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Here are six Rides this week, all ranked inside the weekly Top-20: Chris Olave (vs. CAR), Jameson Williams (@NE), Parker Washington (@TEN), Zay Flowers (vs. LAC, and nobody was happier to see his team trade for a capable QB), Justin Jefferson (@GB, and OK, he was even happier than Flowers), and Rashee Rice (@ATL).
Matthew Golden and Christian Watson (vs. MIN) are now like Chase and Higgins – they’re a set-and-forget duo every week, regardless of matchup. The game is at home and the Vikings are on a short week, and could be without tone-setting MLB Blake Cashman, so I’m a little less scared of the matchup. I don’t see them beating projections, but as with Love, don’t be scared off. Green Bay can’t run the ball, and both will have chances to make big plays downfield.
Moving down to those ranked between 21 and 30 for the Week — I like these guys as WR2/WR3 or Flex plays: D.J. Moore (@NYJ), K.C. Concepcion, Jr. (vs. HOU), Carnell Tate (vs. JAC, assuming he plays), and Germie Bernard (@CIN).
Sleepers:
WRs ranked outside the Top-30 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need comprise a pretty big list this week: Jakobi Meyers (@TEN), Jordyn Tyson (vs. CAR and he should ramp up significantly this week), Keenan Allen and Jordan Watkins (@DAL), Caleb Douglas (@IND, and yes, the QB situation is concerning), Tutu Atwell (@ARI), Wan’Dale Robinson (vs. JAC), Adonai Mitchell (vs. BUF), Xavier Hutchinson (@CLE), and Ryan Flournoy (vs. SF).
Fades:
Stefon Diggs (@NYG) should see decent volume, but on a cold and rainy night against this defense, I don’t like his odds of beating projections. He didn’t play in the first game between these teams.
Jalen Coker (@NO) has only topped five targets or four catches once since Week 2. He’s too risky of a start for me at the moment.
Ladd McConkey (@BAL) can’t seem to start and finish a game. I expect this offense to eventually improve but I don’t see how you can start this guy right now.
I’ll fade A.J. Brown (@DET) if he plays (he is travelling to Germany with the team). He’s an auto-fade to me until he plays and looks like some semblance of himself.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 and/or who should be starting options this season and who I’m lower than consensus on this week include: None! But I will say this – I wouldn’t start any Colts’ or Cardinals’ receivers this week.
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle and Isaiah Likely; the analysis starts below them.
NOTE: Bowers and McBride will be catching passes from rookie QBs making their NFL debut – oddly enough, it’s the two QBs who faced each other in the national championship game last season. Both tight ends get a downgrade but are still auto-starts and I’ll continue listing them as elite until there’s a reason not to.
Rides:
Tyler Warren (vs. MIA) is the only legit NFL pass-catcher left on the Colts. Fire him up with confidence against Miami, who allows the fourth most FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Hunter Henry (@DET) gets the gift that keeps on giving. The Lions have allowed the most yards, FPPG and TDs (11) to opposing tight ends.
Sleepers:
There are several names to consider this week: Darren Waller (@NO, and he is coming off a huge game but is always a low floor/high ceiling play), Pat Freiermuth (@CIN, third most yards allowed to TEs), Tyler Higbee AND Colby Parkinson (@ARI, which is a good matchup, and I’ll again mention L.A.’s void at wide receiver), and A.J. Barner (@LV, fifth most FPPG allowed to opposing TEs, and he scored twice last week.
Others to consider if you want to go deep: Brevyn Spann-Ford (vs. SF) and Eli Raridon (@DET).
Fades:
Tucker Kraft (v. MIN), sorry to do this to you, but this is the #1 defense against the position, and you haven’t been featured much.
Three others I’m low on this week: Mark Andrews (vs. LAC), Dalton Kincaid (@NYJ), and Sam Laporta (three straight games with five or fewer fantasy points and the Patriots allow the seventh fewest FPPG to the position).
Good luck in Week 10!
***This column appears each Thursday here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants. ***
