UConn men’s basketball begins its quest for its seventh national championship Friday night, as the 2-seed Huskies take on the 15-seed Furman Paladins in Philadelphia. Historically, 2-seeds are 149-11 against 15-seeds all time, with the last upset coming in 2023 when Princeton beat Arizona. While FanDuel isn’t necessarily predicting that the Paladins pull off the upset in Philly, the odds of UConn winning are noticeably lower than the other 2-seeds in the tournament.
FanDuel has the odds of UConn winning
outright (moneyline) at -7000 — a very high number, but considerably lower than the moneyline odds for fellow 2-seeds Houston (-10000), Iowa State (-10000) and Purdue (-20000). The spread for UConn’s first round matchup is -20.5, with the over/under set at 136.5.
The slightly lower odds for a UConn win are not a knock on the Huskies, but some respect for a feisty Furman squad. The Paladins have played the role of Cinderella before, with head coach Bob Richey leading the Paladins to upset over 4-seed Virginia as a 13-seed in 2023.
Furman also has legit size as the fifth tallest team in the country per KenPom, and ranks 30th nationally in continuity. The Paladins’ size and experience, combined with one of the top mid-major freshman in the country in Alex Wilkins, make Furman a real threat to knock off UConn in round one. So what can UConn do to avoid the upset?
Contain Alex Wilkins
Wilkins came out of relative obscurity to blossom into a star for the Paladins this season, serving as Furman’s only representative on any of the Southern Conference’s All-SoCon teams. The second team all-conference selection averaged 17.7 points per game this season and scored 34 points against UNC Greensboro in the SoCon Tournament semifinals. Wilkins size at 6-foot-5 makes him a brutal matchup for smaller guards, and Silas Demary Jr. questionable but likely to play, Wilkins will serve as a tough test for Demary, one of the top perimeter defenders in the country when healthy.
Assuming Demary Jr. is able to play, the Georgia transfer may need help to prevent Wilkins from getting to the basket. If UConn can make Wilkins beat them from deep, where he is just a 32.2 percent 3-point shooter, it will be difficult for the Paladins to keep up with the Huskies.
Dominate the glass
Unlike most mid-majors, Furman has the size to match up with UConn on both ends. No one in the Paladins’ starting five is shorter than Wilkins at 6-foot-5, and Furman usually rolls out two 6-foot-11 bigs in Cooper Bowser and Charles Johnston in the starting lineup. Bowser was key for Furman in the SoCon Tournament title game, scoring 21 points and adding 11 rebounds in the win. Johnston had six points on two 3-pointers and added seven boards in that game as well. Johnston is not an elite 3-pointer at under 30 percent, but his ability to shoot the three will stretch Tarris Reed Jr. out more than usual.
Despite the Paladins’ size, Furman is not an elite rebounding team, but Reed and the rest of the UConn frontcourt will need to hold their own on the glass to eliminate any extra shots. Dan Hurley has teased playing both Reed and freshman 7-footer Eric Reibe for weeks now, and with so much size on Furman’s end, rolling them both out together to counteract Johnston and Bowser may not be a bad idea.
Keep the threes to a minimum
Furman is not a good 3-point shooting team. The Paladins shoot just 33.3 percent from deep and have only one player (Asa Thomas) shooting over 35 percent from three with more than 100 attempts. That doesn’t stop Furman from jacking up threes through, as they make up 46.3 percent of the Paladins’ field goal attempts, which ranks 40th nationally. When it works, like it did in the SoCon title game when Furman shot 10-26 from deep, the Paladins can be hard to beat.
UConn will need to run Furman off the 3-point line to avoid the upset. The Huskies have excelled at providing perimeter pressure and forcing teams into the paint all season, and will need to continue to do so to prevent an early March exit. If not, one hot shooting night from the Paladins could be all it takes for Furman to repat as Cinderella.
