The Seattle Seahawks won versus the Los Angeles Chargers in an ugly home game, and the leaders on the team held a team meeting earlier this week to emphasize cleaning up how they play. They will need to play cleaner this coming week as they are set to face the 4-0 San Francisco 49ers who are currently first in point differential in the NFL. Can the 3-1 Seahawks beat their division rivals? What could be the score? Let’s take a look at the numbers and find out.
Seahawks advanced stats rankings
The Seahawks per FTN’s DVOA data are ranked
6th in total DVOA, 16th in offensive DVOA, first in defensive DVOA, and 17th in special Teams DVOA.
Per EPA data, they are ranked second in total defensive EPA and defensive EPA per play, meanwhile they are 16th in total offensive EPA and offensive EPA per play.
The Seahawks are sixth in point differential currently with a +32 point differential over opponents. They are averaging 26.3 points per game, with three games in which they scored 30+ points. They are holding opponents to an average of 18.3 points, which ranks fifth in the NFL.
49ers advanced stats rankings
The 49ers are ranked first in total DVOA, first in offensive DVOA, fifth in defensive DVOA, and 22nd in special teams DVOA.
For EPA, the 49ers are ranked first in both total offensive EPA and offensive EPA per play, and ranked 18th in total defensive EPA and defensive EPA per play.
They are ranked first in point differential with a +58 point differential, and are averaging 30.5 points per game and are holding opponents to 16 points per game.
Calculating the Score
SEA 26.3 + SF Opponents 16 = 42.3/2= 21.15
SF 30.5+ SEA Opponents 18.3= 48.8/2= 24.4
Score Prediction: 24-21, 49ers
Now in past weeks I have also taken into account how much teams general beat their opposition. Per Pro Football Reference the 49ers margin of victory is 14.5 point. Rounded up to 15, that would mean the Seahawks would only score 9 points.
Second Score Prediction: 24-9, 49ers
This is looking to be a close game, and historically the Seahawks and 49ers have played one another close. I went into some analytics and have a different (more optimistic, winning) take on the score prediction over on The Hawks Eye Podcast with my weekly analytics show Eye On The Numbers. I go into key players, how they have played in previous games this year, how the opposing defenses have defended skill players, to see how they would preform in this matchup.
I have the Seahawks scoring four touchdowns and a field goal, and the 49ers scoring three touchdowns and a field goal. Jaxson Smith-Njiba is averaging two touchdowns a game, AJ Barner is likely good for a touchdown, and if not, Emanuel Wilson showed he can score a touchdown both as a receiver and rushing the ball into the endzone.
The Seahawks could score five touchdowns and a field goal (which I would be more than happy with), but with the 49ers holding opponents to 16 points a game, let’s air on the side of caution and say four.
For the 49ers, Mike Evans has two games with a touchdown so I think he could be good for one touchdown, Christian McCaffery has been averaging one rushing touchdown a game, and George Kittle is good for a touchdown. There are the 49ers three touchdowns right there.
Now, the 49ers are averaging 30+ points a game, and the Seahawks have three games of 30+ points this season. Both McCaffery and Kittle have a game with two touchdowns, so they could get above 30+ points. However, their 30+ point games were versus the Dolphins and the Cardinals, both of whom have weaker defenses than the Rams and the Broncos who held them under 30 points. With the Seahawks having the number one DVOA defense, I believe the Seahawks can hold them to under 30 points.
My Score Prediction: 31-24, Seahawks Victory
If you would like to listen to how I came up with that score and more, you can listen to the podcast here:
What are your score predictions? Who do you think will win? Leave your predictions in the comments and as always, Go Hawks!
