You don’t need a piece on TheGoodPhight or somewhere else to tell you the Phillies look different. Simply reading the lineup and seeing several players change positions will tell you enough. It’s very different.
Since the start of August, the Phillies are 22-8, roughly when the trade deadline came and went. They were active at that deadline, trading one of their best pitching prospects for Luis Arraez and Caleb Killian, then making a smaller trade for Brooks Raley. You would think that is why the Phillies have
taken a massive step forward.
But what if I told you that those moves haven’t really helped them at all? Yes, Luis Arraez, even with an 80 wRC+ in a Phillies uniform, is a big indirect upgrade over Gabriel Rincones jr, Adolis Garcia, and whatever else the Phillies were trying. However, he still has an 80 wRC+ with solid but not world-beating defense. On top of that, Caleb Killian looked like a disaster in four outings before hitting the injured list and Brooks Raley looks like a serviceable middle reliever but nothing more.
In total, the Phillies trade deadline acquisitions have been worth a combined 0.0 fWAR so far, there is still plenty of time for that to change but it shouldn’t be labeled as a success at the moment.
So how did a team that went 57-53 over the first four months of the season balloon to 79-61? Here are some of the big steps forward from the Phillies’ most unlikely contributors.
Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter solidifying the rotation
Arguably, the Phillies most pressing need five weeks ago was to find one or even two more viable starting pitchers. Aaron Nola had an ERA over 6 prior to August while Andrew Painter was in AAA because his first 65 innings in the majors were a disaster. Alan Rangel and Brian Keller were getting bulk innings or starts at one point, without anyone on the injured list, because the Phillies back of the rotation had been such a mess.
There has been a little smoke and mirrors for Nola thanks to a 95.2% left on base rate (LOB%) but a 2.65 ERA in 34 innings is worth a lot.
Andrew Painter is now getting a more reliable fastball shape thanks to some delivery tweaks and has been working with a new changeup grip, ditching his unreliable splitter in AAA. Hitters are hitting just .075 on the new changeup, without any extra base hits and are whiffing at it 32.2% of the time.
It’s obviously not just those two who have taken a step forward. Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez have ERAs well below 2 but frontline-caliber starters have stretches like this. The Phillies issue was that two of every five days had big question marks about the starting rotation. That isn’t the case right now, even if Zack Wheeler hasn’t looked sharp.
Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm transforming in new positions
It’s unfair to not mention Bryce Harper playing like an MVP candidate in August and walking 25% of the time. So it’ll be mentioned here.
Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm did not have the biggest challenges in the world moving down the defensive spectrum to new positions. Stott has specifically taken to third base extremely well, already recording four outs above average there. Bohm’s first base has generally looked stable and just getting him off third has helped things.
Offensively, they’re both providing bottom half of the lineup offense the Phillies were lacking for months. Stott has hit a cold stretch but still has a 119 wRC+ in his last 124 plate appearances. Alec Bohm has started swinging nearly 2 mph faster on average with a slight decrease in groundballs. It has lead to an .851 OPS first baseman, which is significantly better than before.
Those are the two biggest surprises but Justin Crawford also deserves praise as a regular that is coming through. Even with a recent cold streak, Crawford has still looked roughly like a league average hitter since the start of August without a massive BABIP spike. For someone that is probably batting 8th or 9th in October, it’s a huge jump.
Alex McFarlane already looks like the Phillies second or third best reliever
A fastball over 100 mph with a sinker, and two very good horizontal breaking pitches, McFarlane has looked nasty since rejoining the Phillies. With every outing, he looks a little more comfortable and composed. His last outing, escaping a first-and-second-with-no-outs situation unscathed, probably gives him plenty of runway as a leverage arm down the stretch and into October.
The bullpen trust tree obviously starts with Jhoan Duran at the top and Jonathan Bowlan should absolutely factor in right behind him, even with the solo home run he allowed Wednesday (on a back-to-back after doing an up-down the day before). McFarlane is probably the third guy even if he might just walk the bases loaded in a playoff game, he also might just strike all of them out.
An upgraded bench
When Edmundo Sosa, Bryan De La Cruz, and Derek Hill have played this month, they do something. Whether it’s Sosa hitting a three-run bomb in the ninth to give the Phillies the lead, Bryan De La Cruz hitting .294 with 9 RBIs or it’s Derek Hill drawing a big walk, hitting a walk-off, or making a diving catch. It’s kind of the perfect bench, each player just finding a way to do something whenever the manager calls on them.
So even with an underwhelming trade deadline so far, the upgrades the Phillies have seen internally have completely changed the club’s expectations and performance. Just off recent trends, the Phillies look like a World Series threat with everything clicking at the right time. They might even mess around and win the division.
