The worst loss Arizona has had since the start of the 2025 season came last year at Iowa State, a 39-14 setback to open conference play. But that was against a Cyclones squad that is mostly in the Big Ten now, as coach Matt Campbell left for Penn State during the offseason and took a ton of his ISU players with him.
The program is now under the direction of Jimmy Rogers, who spent one season at Washington State and also won an FCS national title with South Dakota State. Iowa State is 3-3 overall and 1-2
in the Big 12 with all three losses to ranked teams.
To better understand the Cyclones that are coming to Tucson for Homecoming we reached out to Jack Christensen of SB Nation sister site Wide Right & Natty Lite for some insight and a score prediction. Below are his fervent answers to our apathetic questions:
AZ Desert Swarm: How would you grade Iowa State’s first half of the season? What has been most promising to see, and where have the biggest issues surfaced?
“Honestly a B given the circumstances. Three losses but every single one came against a ranked opponent, No. 15 Iowa, No. 10 Utah and No. 2 BYU. That context matters enormously. The most promising thing has been Aiden Flora’s emergence and the defense’s ability to bow up in critical moments. The biggest issues have been offensive consistency without a true No. 1 receiver and the defensive line underperforming expectations without a healthy Caden Crawford.”
Jaylen Raynor threw for more than 8,500 yards and had 67 total touchdowns in three seasons at Arkansas State before joining the Cyclones, where his numbers haven’t been as prolific. What has kept him from matching his past performances, and do you think he’s capable of carrying the team through the air?
“A few things: he is operating in a new system under a first-year offensive coordinator in Tyler Roehl, without the weapons he had at Arkansas State, and facing a significant jump in competition from the Sun Belt to the Big 12. He’ll be without his best receiver the remainder of the games after (Dominic) Overby went down for the season in Provo. Can he carry this team through the air? I think he is capable. We have not seen the best version of Jaylen Raynor yet in Ames and that is either concerning or exciting depending on how you look at it.”
Aiden Flora had that monster game against West Virginia, with five total TDs, and he’s third in the Big 12 in rushing. How has he managed to break out this season?
“Flora was the first player Jimmy Rogers put on scholarship when he arrived in Ames and that decision has aged beautifully. He is a physical, instinctive runner who gets better as the game goes on. The West Virginia game was his coming out party but it was not a surprise to anyone who has watched him closely all season. He is third in the Big 12 in rushing for a reason. He is the engine of this offense and everyone in the Big 12 now knows it.”
What does Iowa State do best on defense, and how do you think they’ll try to slow down Noah Fifita? Are there any individual players that Arizona fans should be closely watching?
“Iowa State’s defense is at its best when the pass rush is generating pressure and forcing quick decisions. The names to watch are edge rushers Isaac Terrell and Caden Crawford, who is potentially returning from injury this week. If Crawford is healthy that defensive line becomes a genuinely dangerous unit. The other name Arizona fans should know is linebacker Sullivan Schlimgen. He followed Rogers from Washington State to Ames and has been one of the more reliable defenders on this roster. He knows this system inside and out and has the kind of football IQ that shows up in big moments. The goal against Fifita will be disrupting his rhythm early and forcing him off his first read. Iowa State cannot let him get comfortable.”
A year ago it seemed impossible to think Matt Campbell would move on from Ames but then Penn State got desperate and made him (and half his players) an offer they couldn’t refuse. New coach Jimmy Rogers seems more upwardly mobile, is there a concern he won’t be around long?
“It is a fair question and one Cyclone fans think about quietly. Rogers is clearly talented and ambitious. The honest answer is that if he builds something special in Ames the bigger programs will come calling eventually, just like they did with Campbell. But Campbell stayed nine years. The hope is that Rogers finds what Campbell found, that Ames is a genuinely great place to build a program and that Iowa State gives him the tools to compete. The (men’s basketball coach TJ Otzelberger) extension through 2036 on the basketball side shows the administration is willing to invest when the right coach is in place. We hired a new AD this week and his press conference was promising. He wants to win and will hopefully do a lot to keep Rogers around if he continues to trend up.”
Prediction time. Does Iowa State spoil Arizona’s Homecoming or do the Wildcats win their fifth straight and lock up bowl eligibility? Give us a score pick.
“This one is hard to pick against Iowa State given how they have competed all season but Arizona at home on Homecoming with Fifita healthy is a tough out. I will say Arizona 31-24. But do not be surprised if Flora has another monster game and makes this very uncomfortable for the Wildcats in the fourth quarter.”
