Welcome to the Tar Heel Blog Roundtable! We asked our Tar Heel Blog staff to provide their expectations for the 2026 season, including what it will take for Bill Belichick’s seat to be hot enough to get canned. If you have questions of your own you’d like to discuss, just add them in the comments, and one or more of us will be happy to add our perspective to your inquiry.
What result this year would justify UNC paying $20 million in buy outs (Belichick plus staff) to fire this experiment into the sun?
Matt B: Failure to show any improvement from last year. That doesn’t necessarily mean winning more games–you do have to take into
account that Carolina has the 29th-toughest schedule in the country this season after having the 80th-toughest last season (per ESPN, that’s the biggest jump in difficulty of any Power 4 team). But if we see the same level of ineptitude on offense, especially with a supposed upgrade at OC, that should be a major red flag.
Brandon A: Finishing sub-.500 alone warrants getting rid of Belichick and his staff. Really anything less than 8 or 9 wins should be enough considering how he was advertised and how much he is being paid. Other head coaches are figuring it out, and one of them that was available when he was hired even won a national title. High pay equals high expectations. If you can’t meet them, you have to go.
Al H: Sadly, that number is still so high–and then you look at the 2027 non-conference schedule that only has Purdue, Central Florida, UConn, and someone called North Alabama. Pending the ACC Schedule, you can realistically talk yourself into an idea of they can “improve” over whatever record they put up this year if they can retain talent. For me, this would have never had started but I think for them to stand to get rid of him, this would need to be a 2-10 or worse type of season. Anything more and they’ll talk themselves into one more year.
Akil G: If UNC doesn’t make a bowl game this year, Belichick has to go. Two consecutive sub-six-win seasons is what it took to fire Fedora and what it took to fire Bunting, and making a bowl game as a P4 program is easier now than it was for either of them. Personally, I think even paying 10 million for a head coach to win 6 games in Year 2 is plenty embarrassing enough to turf him, but I can at least admit that against this schedule, it would show progress and at least hint at a proof of concept, and that’s enough for decision-makers to justify holding on to their investment.
Max S: I am fully in support of this plan, regardless of this season’s results. I’ve seen enough, and I’d like to see something new.
Matt L: Sub-.500 season.
Brandon G: Since I wanted us to do this after the end of last season, I guess any result in my mind would justify this
Tom B: It’s kind of hard for me to answer this question, as the $20 million isn’t my money. Anything less than a .500 record should be seen as a sign the program isn’t getting better. UNC hadn’t had a season worse than 6-6 since 2018; if Belichick fails to make that mark, the Heels will have had two such seasons in a row after committing substantially more resources to the program. This isn’t a program that has been terrible for a long time and needs years to rebuild. While it might have been slipping a bit in Mack Brown’s last year, it’s a team that was a borderline top 25 program for much of the past 5 years or so.
David S: 6-6 or worse. Yes, six wins gets to a bowl game, and I get why that’s an acceptable minimum (emphasis on minimum) for some. For me, an ACC schedule plus two games like ETSU and a totally gutted UConn makes six wins “replacement level” coaching. After 4-8, rising to average doesn’t get it done for me. I need to see this team be good. 6-6 ain’t good.
What result would have you looking forward to year 3 of the Belichick Experience?
Matt B: As I mentioned, the schedule is a lot tougher this year, so bettering or even just matching last season’s win total would be highly encouraging. Even if they can’t quite get there, I’ll be willing to give it another season with this coaching staff if the team is at least competitive in every game.
Brandon A: Looking forward to more of the Bill Belichick experience isn’t a thing. The program has drawn too much attention for the wrong reasons, and even a promising 2026 finish that gives hope for 2027 wouldn’t change that.
Al H: Honestly, none. I want this to either go down in flames or he get to the CFP so that he can finally say “see, I can coach” and “go out on his terms.” Maybe that would be enough to fool an NFL team to hire him for one more go around so he can break the record for wins. If, somehow, he gets into the CFP and doesn’t get an NFL gig then maybe I can see a path to looking forward to 2027 just because he might actually be able to get some other players here.
Akil G: The people writing the checks might be, like I said, but I am not going to be particularly moved by incremental improvement. To be excited about another year of Belichick, I’d need to see an actual good team that wins football games. The benchmark for that, for any team in the country, is usually 8 wins, so that’s my bar.
Max S: This result does not exist. No amount of winning would make the off-the-field circus palatable. I do think six or seven wins would get a passing “huh, good for the players” out of me, and I’m always pulling for the team to win every game by fifty points, but I’m not wasting my shockingly limited brain space thinking about Bill Belichick, let alone looking forward to more of his whole deal.
Matt L: Bowl eligible and retention of some of this young talent. Do not care if they win the bowl game, but they gotta make it to one.
Brandon G: A lobotomy… nothing has been enjoyable about this, no matter the results, something new seems to find its way to the surface to add more bleh to everything.
Tom B: My reflexive response is there’s almost no result that would have me excited for year three of Belichick. That being said, there’s a lot of coaches out there that get the fans to buy in despite them knowing better (Will Wade has made an entire career out of it). So yeah, I supposed if UNC made the CFP for the first time, I’d be excited for year three. Outside of that, it’s hard to see where the excitement might come from. Beating State and/or Duke would obviously generate some positive momentum, as would a bowl game or a top 25 win. But a 6-6 year with one of those wins and a bowl invite likely won’t alter my opinion that UNC is better off moving on from the BB experience.
David S: Seven wins or more, plus being competitive into halftime against Miami and Notre Dame. A football team that can do that against this schedule is a good football team.
Which side of the ball are you most concerned about and why?
Matt B: Offense, specifically because the quarterback room doesn’t seem to have gotten better and may very well have gotten worse. Billy Edwards Jr. was forgettable in his lone season as the starter for Maryland in 2024 before missing pretty much all of last year with a knee injury, Miles O’Neill didn’t take a meaningful snap in two seasons at Texas A&M, Travis Burgess was in high school last year (where he too missed most of the season with an injury), and Au’Tori Newkirk apparently couldn’t beat out any of those guys. Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic, but YIKES.
Brandon A: The defense. While I don’t think Bobby Petrino will be able to make diamonds out of this group, I feel like Steve Belichick’s illness and an uninspired roster makes the defense worse off.
Al H: Maybe defense? Having your defensive coordinator disappear right as training camp starts and not come back probably isn’t good. It puts more pressure on Bill to make the play calls, and the thing that sold us on this experiment was that Steven was able to handle this–and that side did actually seem to improve over the course of the year.
Akil G: Defense. Steve Belichick had some good moments last year and a good defense at Washington in 2024, but he doesn’t have near the track record that Bobby Petrino does, and he’s also not with the team right now, so they’re starting at a disadvantage. I think the starting defensive line is strong, but they can’t play every snap and the depth behind them is woeful. The secondary has some very good players but also some incredibly green ones, and I don’t know at all what to make of the linebackers, and all of that combines for a very uneasy prognosis.
Max S: The side with the laces; I’m worried that the ball will not get thrown as frequently or as well as it would prefer, so I suspect the laces will be sadly abandoned or misused for portions of the season.
Matt L: Defense. At this point I have more confidence in Petrino to coach offense at the college level than for Belichick to coach defense at the college level.
Brandon G: Can I say both? Both sides have one future NFL player in my mind (Shipp on Offense, MAJ on Defense) and then a bunch of question marks followed by freshmen with possible potential.
Tom B: I’m most concerned for the offensive side of the ball. Granted, Petrino should help some, but it’s hard to believe the talent is there for this team to compete at a high level. There are question marks at pretty much every offensive position other than tight end, which is already dealing with injuries. Maybe the sum of all the parts turns out to be more than the individual pieces, but I’m not betting on it.
David S: Defense, lol. Yes, I’ve been beating that dead horse since the State game last year. We were one of the worst P4 teams in the country on third and fourth downs, as well as keeping opponents out of the end zone. Those raw stats came against some really weak offenses with some really bad QBs. And now the LB and DB rooms are a rebuild. The two deep features a lot of guys who haven’t done it at this level. Echoing Matt B from other side of the ball: YIKES.
Who do you think is the one player UNC can’t afford to lose and why?
Matt B: Jordan Shipp. Not only is he their best offensive player (and arguably their best player overall), he’s emerged as a strong leader in the locker room. That’s an invaluable kind of person to have on a team that will most likely go through some rough patches this season, not to mention an offense with an unproven quarterback and a possibly washed up coordinator.
Brandon A: Jordan Shipp. Reason being that he is the only reliably good player on the roster despite who ends up throwing to him.
Al H: Jordan Shipp. Someone who decided to stay despite all of the drama and still bridges the Mack and Belichick eras is a heart-and-soul guy that you have to have on the field. Should Carolina lose him it takes away a major weapon and the rest of the offense could just sink.
Akil G: The answer could be either of the defensive tackles, Jackson and Johnson, but they already can’t play all the snaps. Thus my answer is Jordan Shipp, because he is the sole difference-maker that this offense has at a skill position (I know some people are excited about Jelani Thurman, and it’s not his fault he was behind a 2nd-round draft pick last year, but he still hasn’t done anything yet). Without him, the offense simply has nobody who can draw extra attention from a defense and make the game easier for everybody else, and this team is in dire need of ways to make the game easy.
Max S: Jordan Shipp. He’s one of only two (out of seven) team captains from the laced side of the ball, and I fear the loss of his leadership would have even more of an impact than the loss of his receiving abilities (which would be significant anyway).
Tom B: Assuming the Travis Burgess hype is real, I’ll go with the freshman QB. If you can’t keep highly rated talent like him on the roster past his freshman season, what’s the point of recruiting highly rated freshmen? (I say this knowing full well were also not bringing in highly rated transfers either). Continuity is really hard to maintain in the world of college sports right now, but the Heels have to do better than turning over most of the roster each season.
David S: Agree on Shipp, but Jaiden Patterson also feels crucial to me. He’s an experienced talent at corner that can hold his own and allow a defensive play caller to not have to worry about helping him most of the time. That frees up resources to plug other holes. Jaiden’s the anchor in the secondary, and if he can’t go, coverage suffers across the board. It becomes much easier for opposing offenses to find a weak link back there and light up the scoreboard.
Wake Forest has announced Gio Lopez as their starter for this season. How well do you think Gio Lopez fares?
Matt B: Considering he’s back with his OC from South Alabama and has a solid team around him, probably better than last year.
Brandon A: It’s hard to say, but hopefully he has a much better season than last year. There was a lot working against him in Chapel Hill, so hopefully Wake can get the most out of him.
Al H: I truly have no clue–but I do wish him well. I don’t think him succeeding would be any sort of indictment on anyone besides the previous OC. I suspect bridges had been napalmed by the time the new OC was hired.
Akil G: With an offensive coordinator who’s not Freddie Kitchens and also understands him, he’ll definitely be better, but I do believe that there were issues with his play at UNC that were down to his own deficiencies, not just being a late arrival to an offense he didn’t fit. Processing speed was a real issue and that can only be covered up so much by scheme, in my opinion. That slow, labored release is also liable to be punished by P4 defenses, though maybe the ACC is bad enough that he can get away with it. I think he and Billy Edwards, if Edwards starts the whole year, will put up pretty similar numbers, and probably both be on the low end of average in the conference.
Max S: I think he’ll look considerably better at Wake Forest; I was never fully out on him and I quite liked his skillset coming out of South Alabama. I don’t think he was set up to succeed last season, and I suspect I am the first person brave enough to say that.
Matt L: I think Gio is going to have a really great year. Wake’s schedule is relatively not too difficult and I think a different environment and last year’s experiences under his belt will allow him to take the next step.
Brandon G: Better than he did at UNC, wouldn’t surprise me if he led the Demon Deacons in rushing and passing while leading them to a bowl game.
Tom B: It’s honestly hard to figure out how much of Lopez’s struggles were him and how much it was the team and coaching staff around him, although it’s likely some of both. My guess: better than at UNC, but still not even among the top 10 QBs in the ACC.
David S: Gio needs a very specific offense to succeed, so he’s a good fit at Wake Forest. Rob Ezell (google “Rob Ezell Saban impression” for a good laugh) coached him at South Alabama, so there’s familiarity and trust there. WF’s plugging him into the offense they ran last season, so there’s continuity. And finally, Wake Forest last season had a top 20 defense in all three major metrics (12th in ESPN’s FPI), so it’s probable WF won’t ask too much of him. It’s a far better situation than what he had last season.
