The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets face off this weekend, and their seasons couldn’t be going in more opposite directions. Buffalo has won four straight games, and they are 7-1 overall for the season. The Jets, meanwhile, have lost four straight games, and they sit at just 2-7 overall.
Where both teams are equal, though, is in the win column vs. other AFC East foes. The Jets have dropped games to both the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins this season, while the Bills had their only loss come
at the hands of those Patriots. Neither Buffalo nor New York has a division win this season, something that both teams want to change on Sunday.
How can the Bills overcome the Jets? Well, they’ll have to start by taking care of their own business, but they’ll also need to keep tabs on the Jets’ top players. Here are five Jets to watch this week against Buffalo.
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QB Geno Smith
The veteran has been solid in his second go-round with the Jets, as he’s thrown 12 touchdown passes against just three interceptions so far this season. Smith’s 100.5 quarterback rating is outstanding, as is his 67.5% completion rate on the year. However, he’s also taken a whopping 28 sacks for a league-leading 236 yards lost. If the Bills can win their matchups up front, Smith will hold the ball, and at 36 years old, he doesn’t have the mobility he once had. Smith was never a great runner, but he’s not someone I’d call elusive in the pocket. Buffalo should look to heat him up early in the game before giving him more simulated pressure looks as the game progresses. Speed up his clock to force him to make mistakes. He’ll hold the ball and take a sack over throwing an interception more often than not, so Buffalo’s defensive front needs to be ready to feast.
RB Breece Hall
The explosive runner has ten career 100-yard games on the ground, and two of those 100-yard games are against the Bills. Hall missed time this year with a quad injury, and he returned last week for the Jets’ 35-12 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. He carried 15 times for 61 yards in the game, which was his second-best output of the season. Given the difference in styles between Hall and teammate Braelon Allen, the Bills need to be ready for Hall’s speed and elusiveness this week. Allen is the thunder while Hall is the lightning, and the best way for the Jets to score an upset win would be to notch some explosive plays on offense. Buffalo needs to stay sound in its tackling lanes and keep Hall from notching big runs. If the Bills can stop him on early downs, it will only help the pass rush to sack Smith, which could lead to a negative game script where Hall becomes less of a factor by default.
WR Garrett Wilson
After sitting last week due to a concussion, Wilson is working his way back and should be able to suit up this week. I assume that Christian Benford will continue his tour of duty against opposing No. 1 wideouts by shadowing Wilson for most of the game; however, Benford missed much of the second half last week with an injury to his wrist. If that limits him in any way, Smith has the arm to make Buffalo pay by finding Wilson, who has had some big catches against the Bills in his career. Buffalo has to make somebody else beat them, and while a healthy Benford would go a long way towards helping to achieve that goal, the Bills can roll coverage Wilson’s way even if they think Benford is going to be limited in some capacity. Shutting Wilson down makes the game easier for Buffalo to win.
DE David Bailey
Bailey is a legitimate Defensive Rookie of the Year threat, as he already has 7.5 sacks and a league-leading five forced fumbles on the year. Dion Dawkins sat last week due to a rib injury, and Spencer Brown played through a back issue last week only for his ankle to be rolled up on late in the game. Yes, he finished the game, but if either of Buffalo’s starting tackles is compromised, it makes it that much easier for the rookie to keep up his excellent first professional season. Buffalo might want to treat Bailey as if he were someone like Dallas Turner or Andrew Van Ginkel—that is, they should consider using some of the same counters to pressure that they did last week, like motioning tight ends into the backfield and putting Allen on the move on bootlegs and in spread formations. Bailey is a stud. The Bills need to account for him on every play.
CB Jarvis Brownlee
The Jets’ primary nickle corner is someone who the Bills can beat. Brownlee has allowed 18-of-29 passes to be completed when he’s the closest man in coverage. He’s allowed three touchdowns without so much as breaking up a single pass this season. His quarterback rating allowed so far is 112.3 on the year. Given that the Bills have so many options out of the slot—Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, and DJ Moore, to name a few—this is a matchup that Buffalo should watch and look to exploit this week.
