The North Carolina Tar Heels football season is now half over and a lot has changed in the three games since the last time we did this (mainly a bunch of losing). That recap came right before the UCF game when
the team looked to be moving upward at 2-1 and a convincing win over Richmond. So with that let’s look at where the football team stands six games into the season.
Offense
Second Quarter MVP
1. RB Benjamin Hall
2. WR Kobe Paysour
3. WR Jordan Shipp
First Quarter MVP: RB Demon June
Offensively this team has gotten worst since the first quarter of the season. In their four games against Power Four schools they have failed to score more than 18 points and have turned the ball over eight times. There have been a few bright spots starting with Hall who has 25 rushes for 111 yards and two touchdowns the past three games as he has retaken over the lead back role from Demon June. June, who was last quarters MVP, has seen his touches drop each game and with them his yards and scores (76 yards and no touchdowns).
Paysour meanwhile just had the first 100 yard receiving game of the season for any Tar Heel (more on the passing game below) in his performance against Cal. In the past three games, he has eight catches for 119 yards and a touchdown.
Shipp continues to lead all receivers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns by a wide margin. However, these past three games he has been held to just 12 receptions for 104 yards and no scores as other receivers like Paysour and freshman Shanard Clower (11 catches for 91 yards) have started to emerge.
Player who needs to step it up over the next three games:
QB Gio Lopez
First Quarter: QB Gio Lopez
Gio Lopez continues to be the answer here as the North Carolina passing game continues to sputter and fall apart. Since Lopez seems to be the starter when healthy, he takes the brunt of the blame here (though Max Johnson has not been much better in relief action). Of the 159 quarterbacks to throw for at least 350 yards this season, Gio ranks 131st in completions percentage, 146th in yards per attempt, tied for 136th in touchdowns, and 146th in QBR (Johnson isn’t much better, albeit with 30 fewer attempts, ranking 82nd, 154th, tied for 148th, and 141st respectively).
If the quarterback play does not improve anytime soon, it doesn’t matter how good the skill players are, the offense will continue to go nowhere.
Biggest question to answer:
Will one of the freshman quarterbacks play more than a single snap this season?
After the previous point, this is the easy question. Since the offense isn’t going anywhere with the current quarterbacks, when is someone going to wake up and try giving the freshman a chance?
Au’Tori Newkirk and Bryce Baker have combined to attempt one pass this season (an interception by Newkirk) and have otherwise been on the bench as the offense continues to cycle through two players who combined would still rank as the 111th best quarterback in FBS this season.
After watching Cal true freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele look more than competent against the Tar Heels despite guys dropping passes left and right, Tar Heel fans have to wonder what one of their own freshman quarterbacks might due if given the opportunity (Pitt also switched to a true freshman quarterback after starting the season 2-2 and have been rewarded with a 3-0 record).
With both bye weeks now exhausted it may still be another two to three games before anyone gets that answer (that would allow Baker or Newkirk to start the last 3 or 4 games and still maintain their redshirt).
Second Quarter Grade: D
First Quarter Grade: C+
Defense
Second Quarter MVP:
1. LB Andrew Simpson
2. LB Tyler Thompson
3. DB Marcus Allen
First Quarter MVP: Andrew Simpson
Simpson continues to be a great get for this defense as he is still one of the few bright spots on what has otherwise been a bad unit. Simpson only had 11 tackles in these past three games (he had 22 in the first three) but did add another sack in the game against Clemson (he is tied for the team lead with two).
Thompson meanwhile had a monster game against Cal, finishing with three tackles, two sacks, and a forced fumble.
Allen, who was the player on the needs to step up list, rounds out this group with seven tackles and a pass break up over the past three games, though the entire secondary has not been great this second quarter.
Player who needs to step it up over the next three games:
LB Mikai Gbayor
First Quarter: Marcus Allen
In the game against Richmond, Gbayor had an amazing game and actually made the defensive MVP top three. However, he has not built on that with three tackles in the past three games (he had 16 in the first three games).
UNC needs more pressure from its players and Gbayor getting back to doing what he was doing would go a long way to helping the Tar Heels get their first conference win of the season.
Biggest question to answer:
Will the defense get another meaningful turnover this season?
North Carolina has seven turnovers this season. However, they have only one in the past three games (a fumble recovery late in the blowout loss to Clemson). With the offense’s inability to move the ball, getting turnover and turning them into short fields or even points would be very helpful in their quest to get their win total to more than two.
Second Quarter Grade: D+
First Quarter Grade: B-
Special Teams
Second Quarter Grade: C-
First Quarter Grade: B
Special Teams continues to be underwhelming, though maybe not detrimental either. Kicker Rece Verhoff did miss his first kick this season, a 50 yarder against Clemson, but has made all his extra points and has for the most part been the team’s most reliable source for scoring, accounting for 28.6 percent of the team’s points this season.
Punter Thomas Maginness hasn’t been very helpful to field position. His 40.8 yards per attempt ranks 100th in the nation despite being top 50 in punts. Additionally, his net average of 39.2 yards ranks 110th.
Jaylen McGill ranks 82nd with 126 kick return yards (long of 32) and Will Hardy ranks 97th with 47 punt return yards (long of 22).
Coaching
Second Quarter Grade: F
First Quarter Grade: C-
The offense ranks 133rd (out of 136 teams) in total yards per game (122nd in passing, 124th in rushing) and 124th in points per game. The playcalling has been flat and the offense sputters out more often than it goes anywhere. In the past three games, the Tar Heels are 12/38 on third down (31.6%) and half of their drives have ended in either a three and out or a turnover.
Would a different quarterback make a difference?
Lets play a little blind resume really quick.
Quarterback A: 145 of 211 for 1,607 yards, 15 total TDs and 4 ints
Quarterback B: 133 of 222 for 1,572 yards, 11 total TDs and 7 ints
Quarterback C: 107 of 174 for 975 yards, 6 total TDs and 3 ints
Quarterback D: 111 of 171 for 1,466 yards, 16 TDS and 1 int
Quarterback A is Chandler Morris, who may or may not have wanted to come to UNC only to be told no by GM Lombardi and whose Virginia team is 6-1 on the season. Quarterback B is Ryan Browne, who UNC got instead of Morris, but who the staff soured on and drove back to Purdue. Quarterback C is the combination of Lopez and Johnson for the season.
Not sure if either Morris or Browne would be better in Kitchen’s offense (Quarterback D is Lopez’s first six starts at South Alabama last season), but the floor is super low.
The defense has actually slightly improved from the first quarter of play rising from 70th in total yards allowed to 63rd (97th against the pass (down from 64th), 37th against the run (up from 72nd)) while dropping from 53rd to 74th in points per game. In other words, teams are scoring more (mainly through the air) and therefore not needing more yards as they are already comfortably ahead. The secondary actually had its best game defending the pass without defensive backs coach Armando Hawkins, who returns this week after missing the Cal game.
None of this even includes Bill Belichick who has been one off field issue after another as his team continues to flounder against Power Four competition.
The only thing that keeps this grade from being a F- is the recruiting which still is bringing in players, while flipping players from other Power four schools.
Overall Second Quarter Grade: D-
Overall First Quarter Grade: C+
The past three games have been bad. The Cal game may give some fans hope, that if like Coach Belichick says the team can just tackle better and not turn the ball over, they should win. However, Cal is not a great team and that game may have been more misleading than a sign that things are getting better.
The next three opponents are a combined 12-9 on the season with two of them being in Chapel Hill, though one of them is the aforementioned Virginia and the other is a Stanford team that just upset FSU (the road game is against a slumping Syracuse team, so there is hope).
Of course only time will tell if this first half was just the start of something great or the beginning of the end for the Belichick goes to College on his way to the Hall of Fame.
