One of the reasons the SEC is still considered a good league is because there are no really bad teams. The worst teams are bad in a relative way in comparison to the others mostly because of their record. So it’s easy to forget that heading into this game KenPom.com had projected this game as a one point loss for Missouri.
South Carolina is now the lowest rated SEC team in KenPom at 96th. The lowest rated team two years ago was Vanderbilt at 183 (yes despite Mizzou’s O-fer conference record they were
not the lowest rated). Three years ago it was South Carolina again at 221, four years ago it was Georgia at 219. Going back to league expansion, the lowest rated teams KenPom average was 173.
I’m just pointing this out because a road win in the SEC today, and last year, is a lot different than a road win in 2013. I pointed out the volume of road wins for Mizzou in SEC play since they joined, but one thing I didn’t do is associate those wins with any sort of analytical ranking. So let’s just rank the best wins by opponent KP rating since 2013:
- 2025 Florida (3)
- 2023 Tennessee (6)
- 2021 Arkansas (18)
- 2021 Tennessee (28)
- 2026 Kentucky (31)
- 2025 Mississippi State (33)
- 2022 Texas A&M (33)
- 2025 Georgia (38)
- 2021 Florida (41)
- 2014 Arkansas (44)
- 2018 Alabama (57)
- 2018 South Carolina (80)
- 2018 Vanderbilt (91)
- 2019 Texas A&M (91)
- 2026 South Carolina (96)
- 2022 Ole Miss (108)
- 2018 Ole Miss (108)
- 2023 Ole Miss (122)
- 2014 Auburn (122)
- 2021 South Carolina (124)
- 2019 Georgia (132)
- 2021 Texas A&M (137)
- 2023 LSU (151)
- 2023 Georgia (154)
- 2020 Vanderbilt (169)
- 2013 South Carolina (209)
- 2013 Mississippi State (256)
Bolded are the wins by Dennis Gates.
Some of this is opportunity, as the league has been a lot better the last two years, so a road win is going to go a bit further. One of those games was a Quad 4 win, five of them at the bottom were Quad 3 wins. 10 were Quad 2, and 11 were Q1 wins.
So notching your 15th best road win of the last 14 years sounds pretty nice.
Carolina feels like a team teetering a bit. After starting a respectable 2-4 in the conference, they had their doors blown off by Texas A&M and Florida. Lost in Overtime to LSU, lost again at Texas where the Longhorns never looked uncomfortable, and then were down double digits (or close to it) against Missouri at home for nearly the entirety of the second half.
Then they watched their first 9 three point attempts clank off the rim, on top of being wiped off the glass. Points were becoming hard to come by. And their best player, Meechie Johnson, was struggling and didn’t score a single field goal until there were about 10 minutes left in the game. They were fighting, but the rope was slipping. Then around the 7 minute mark, after cutting the lead to 7 points, Jayden Stone knocked in a three pointer which kicked off an 8-0 run and it was good night.
TEAM STATS
The one thing keeping Carolina around for a good portion of the game was the number of possessions Mizzou was giving away. They finished with a 21.3% turnover rate but only three of those came in the second half. The 11 first half TOVs killed roughly a third of their offensive possessions, at a time when they were having success attacking the rim. They had 12 offensive rebounds, scored 34 points on just 27 shots and did all of that with 11 turnovers.
Then in the second half the three turnovers meant they scored 44 points on 27 shots and just four offensive rebounds. But the rebounds decreased because their shooting improved. Turns out if you just take care of the ball and get good shots you can score the ball.
- Yes it helps when the Gamecocks had their second worst shooting performance of the year, but it’s not like they’re some great shooting team who had an off night. Even if they made 8 threes Mizzou still wins the game. USCe are ranked 13th in the SEC for their outside shooting and are shooting 30.8% on the season.
- A 48.5% offensive rebounding rate is very good. Doing that when you hold your opponent to under 30% is also very good.
The 0.90 ppp the Tigers defense gave up was their best against a high major this season, and the 33.6% eFG rate was the lowest of anyone. That Tiger defense! Just what we’re all used to with this team.
INDIVIDUAL STATS
Trifecta: Jayden Stone, Mark Mitchell, T.O. Barrett
On the season: Mark Mitchell 45, Jayden Stone 25, Jacob Crews 19, Anthony Robinson 17, T.O. Barrett 9, Shawn Phillips 7, Jevon Porter 5, Trent Pierce 4, Sebastian Mack 3, Annor Boateng 1
One of the best post-game interviews I think I’ve ever seen was Jayden Stone’s with the SEC Network crew. Once they asked him about his past and his time at Mizzou he got really introspective. The mea culpa has been had for the expectations around Stone coming into the season, now it’s just an enjoyment for a guy who’s able to finish plays and make big shots for this team. Mizzou has needed a second guy after Mark Mitchell, and Stone has stepped up and been really good.
Mark Mitchell is great. Please don’t take him for granted. This is a reminder for me as much as it is for anyone else. 10 points each half, 11 rebounds overall, 5 assists, 90% of the minutes played and a 142.9 offensive rating. It’s just ridiculous. He’s such a good facilitator, and now he’s become such a consistent performer. Double figures in every SEC game, and his minutes keep going up. On top of that, his offensive efficiency is better than it was last year with more minutes and more usage.
The Floor Rates are interesting because Mark and Jayden were so good they didn’t need anyone else to be great. Just be good enough, T.O. Barrett and Trent Pierce filled that in, Anthony Robinson wasn’t bad either, Shawn Phillips played a good game. The top 7 for the Tigers is solid, if they could just find one or two more consistent performers.
Nicholas Randall could use a solid look there, provided Jevon Porter continues to show up on the injury report. I don’t know if Trent Burns is physical enough at this point to compete with some of these other SEC bigs, but Randall at the five — not his natural position — has been reliable. And he’s not afraid to stick his nose in on defense, and fight for rebounds. His offensive is limited but I think you can stand the effort plays.
It’s a good win. If Mizzou has any interest in remaining on the conversation for the NCAA Tournament they needed to win this one. There are too many blemishes on their resume. Any road win you can pick up is a good one from here on out.
Things only get more difficult going forward.
I’ve moved the glossary to a static page at RockM+ to reduce the size of the bottom of this post.
So if you’re looking for what any of these stats mean, Check out the Glossary!
In attempting to update Study Hall, I’ve moved away from Touches/Possession and moving into the Rates a little more. This is a little experimental so if there’s something you’d like to see let me know and I’ll see if there’s an easy visual way to present it.
If there’s something you’d like to see more of an explanation on, drop a note and let me know!
