You might think Purdue vs Texas isn’t much of a basketball rivalry. For those unfamiliar with Purdue basketball lore, it seems like a standard Sweet 16 matchup between two random teams without much in common other than the desire to survive and advance. When the Longhorns stuck the final knife in Gonzaga’s season, I started grinding my teeth. I have a deep and personal hatred of Texas basketball that started in 1990 when eight-year-old Drew’s heart was broken when the 10-seed Longhorns knocked off
the 2-seed Boilermakers, 73-72, in the second round of the NCAA Tournament when Texas center Guillermo “Panama” Myers clearly (in the eyes of 8-year old Drew at least) goal-tended Tony Jones’s attempt at the game winner.
That grave injustice not only ended the Boilermakers’ season but also ended the Purdue careers of Tony Jones and Steve Scheffler. Those guys also happened to be my first sports “heroes”. I didn’t know the difference between a post-up and a pick-and-roll, but I’m not sure I’ve ever been more disappointed by the outcome of a sporting event. Keep in mind, I’ve been a lifelong Boilermaker fan, and I graduated from Clemson; I’ve seen more than my fair share of epic sports disasters, but at eight, I hadn’t formed a sports callus yet. It was a cruel indoctrination into the “real world,” and I’m still bitter.
The Boilermakers and Longhorns have played several times since that ill-fated game, with their last meeting occurring in the second round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Purdue won that game 81-71, and then famously (or infamously, I suppose), lost in the Sweet-16 to Saint Peter’s. For some reason, I blame Texas for that loss as well. As I said, I’m still bitter.
Maybe this game can help scab over the oozing wound in my sports psyche that has been festering for the last 36 years?
Maybe the 2-seeded Boilermakers knocking off the 11th-seeded Longhorns in 2026 will heal my wounded sports heart?
I highly doubt it.
Some wounds aren’t meant to heal, but I’d still appreciate it if Coach Painter and company dispatched the tormentors of my youth. It would only be fitting. Matt Painter was on the bench for the 1990 loss as a little-used freshman guard; Coach Painter will be on the bench in 2026 as one of the best in the coaching game. The Boilermakers not only should win this game, but they need to win this game for me. I don’t think I could handle the Longhorns also ending the Purdue careers of Tony Jones, Steve Sheffler, Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and TKR. Thinking about it makes me break out in a cold sweat.
In order to avoid disaster and get a game closer to the ultimate goal of playing in the Final 4 in Indianapolis, there are a few key areas the Boilermakers need to win Thursday night.
Key Areas of Purdue Concern
Purdue on Offense
(All stats from KenPom.Com – National Rank in ())
Three Point Percentage
Purdue Offense: 38.8% (8)
Texas Defense: 35.1% (253)
Thoughts:
Purdue’s swoon down the stretch of the Big 10 season feels like a distant memory. The team that dropped four of its last six games heading into the Big 10 tournament doesn’t even resemble the Purdue team on its current six-game heater in elimination games, and the 3-point line has a good bit to do with the Boilermakers turnaround.
Here’s how they’ve shot the ball from deep in NCAA Tournament games
vs Queens: 14-24 (58%)
vs Miami: 8-14 (57%)
That’s what I call a heater, and Fletcher Loyer is providing the gasoline. He’s one of the streakiest shooters I’ve ever had the frustration/joy of watching, and he’s currently in the midst of an epic run of shooting form. He’s 8-12 from deep in the NCAA Tournament, which is crazy. What’s even crazier is he’s 34/66 (52%) in the month of March, dating back to his 5/9 performance in Purdue’s loss to Ohio State.
In addition to Loyer’s incendiary shooting, CJ Cox has also come up big for the Boilermakers. Purdue’s guard lets his play talk for him on the court, and recently, his play has been talking crazy. He’s 6/8 from distance in the tournament, including his late first-half outburst against Miami that saw him drain 3 consecutive deep balls in the last 2 minutes of the half to help steal any momentum from the Hurricanes heading into halftime.
CJ would have more than 8 attempts in the tournament, but as we all know, his knee buckled on a drive to the basket in the second half of the Miami game. He spent most of the second half in the locker room and then, thankfully, on the Boilermaker bench without ice or a brace. I get the feeling that he would have played if Purdue needed him down the stretch. Thankfully, that wasn’t the case, and Purdue’s combustible sophomore guard was able to take the night off and rest up for the Sweet 16. From every account I’ve read, he should be good to go against Texas. That’s good for Purdue, because they’re going to need to keep up the 3-point shooting pace against a Longhorn team that collapses to protect the paint at the slightest provocation, leaving shooters open on the perimeter. If you leave a Purdue shooter open, the Boilermakers happen to have the most prolific assist man in NCAA history pulling the strings in Braden Smith. When Purdue throws down on the block to Trey Kaufmann-Renn, the Boilermakers get even more dangerous from the outside, because Braden is a knock-down catch-and-shoot guy as well when his shots are falling; double-team Trey at your own peril.
While Purdue has been historically hot from behind the arc, the Longhorns’ perimeter defense has significantly improved in tournament play.
vs NC State: 6-16 (38%)
vs BYU: 4-22 (18%)
vs Gonzaga: 4/16 (25%)
It’s no surprise that the closest game they’ve played in the tournament was their 68-66 win over NC State in the play-in game. Texas struggles when they give up 3-pointers, and they haven’t been giving up 3-pointers in the tournament.
In fact, after Arkansas and Oklahoma combined to hit 18/39 (46%) in consecutive March conference losses, the Longhorns have only given up 15 3’s in their last 4 games. They even held Ole Miss to 1/11 3-point shooting in their upset loss in the SEC Tournament.
In Summary
Purdue is on an epic 3-point binge, and Texas’s defense has been shutting teams down from behind the arc after struggling to do so in the regular season.
I don’t see a way forward for Texas if Purdue stays hot from outside. I don’t think they can score enough points to beat a hot shooting Boilermaker squad.
If Texas can maintain its suddenly stifling perimeter defense, the 11th-seeded Longhorns have more than enough firepower to end Purdue’s run to Indianapolis and further solidify my long-simmering hatred of the Longhorns that started with the Panama Myers goaltend (I swear it was a goaltend, no need to go back and watch the film.)
Purdue on Defense
Rebounding
Purdue’s Defense Rebounding: 26.7% (30)
Texas’s Offensive Rebounding: 35.4% (38)
Thoughts:
If I had to pinpoint one reason the Longhorns have defied their seeding while knocking off NC State, BYU, and Gonzaga, it’s their work on the offensive glass.
vs NC State: 13 (36.1%)
vs BYU: 14 (41.2%)
vs Gonzaga: 5 (17.9%)
Granted, they weren’t anything special on the boards in their upset over the Zags, but they also made more of their first attempts, with a tournament high .558 effective field goal percentage. I’m going to make a not-so-bold statement and say that Purdue is significantly better than any of the teams the Longhorns have faced in the tournament thus far, at least in terms of their offense.
Texas will need to get up as many shots as possible to try to counteract Purdue’s hot shooting and crushing offensive efficiency. They are one of the worst teams in the nation at creating turnovers (352nd), and I’m willing to bet that Braden Smith doesn’t turn the ball over 8 times as he did against Miami.
If Texas wants to get up extra shots, they are going to have to corral their own misses.
In a strange way, this is a “proof of concept” game for Matt Painter and the Boilermakers. Purdue’s 2025 season ended in the Sweet 16, in large part because Houston dominated them on the offensive glass. It’s hard to win a game when you give up 16 offensive boards.
Coach Painter went into the offseason with the express goal of improving Purdue’s defensive rebounding. Oscar Cluff was the best rebounding big man in the portal, and the Boilermakers swooped in and secured the Aussie big man’s services. That investment, as well as Trey moving back to his natural power forward spot, has improved Purdue’s defensive rebounding from 29.7% (176) to 26.7% (30) in 2026.
At the same time, teams have managed to get at the Boilermakers on the offensive glass in the tournament.
Queens: 8 (24%)
Miami: 14 (40%)
The Miami game, in particular, showed the Longhorns the blueprint. The Hurricanes swarmed the glass with their athletic front court and wings. Trey Kaufmann-Renn and Oscar Cluff can hold their own on the boards, but things get more difficult when the opponent can send a wing like 6’6”, 240-pound wing to offense glass, as Miami did with Shelton Henderson. The Boilermakers are going to give up the occasional offensive rebound to players like Malik Reneau and Ernest Udeh. When the opponents’ wings get involved in offensive rebounding, things get significantly more difficult because Purdue doesn’t have the size or athletic ability to match on the perimeter. Braden, Fletcher, and CJ combined for 4 defensive rebounds against Miami, while Henderson and fellow Hurricane wing Tru Washington combined for 5 offensive rebounds.
Texas doesn’t have the same type of wing players as Miami. That’s no knock on the Longhorns; physically, Henderson is an NBA wing playing college basketball. They do, however, have plenty of size to throw at the wing position with 6’7”, Purdue defector Camden Heide, and 6’8” sophomore Nic Codie at their disposal. They can also shift 6’5” senior guard Tamon Mark from shooting guard to small forward and have him attack the offensive glass as well. Purdue’s back court has to do a good job at keeping their guys off the glass, because if I’m Sean Miller, I’m sending at least three to boards on every shot and hoping that the transition defense holds.
If Cluff and Trey stay out of foul trouble, they should be able to handle the Texas front court of Matas Vokietaitis and Dailyn Swain. If either gets in foul trouble, which isn’t super unusual for either player, especially early, Purdue’s lack of interior depth could play a factor in this game. I don’t like Trey trying to rebound against Vokietaitis if he has to shift down to center to replace Cluff. I don’t like Jack Benter’s matchup with Dailyn Swain if Jack has to play extended minutes in place of Trey. The thought of Daniel Jacobsen attempting to bang with Vokietaitis on the boards makes me break out in a cold sweat.
Purdue’s starting front court needs to stay on the court because I’m not sure the reserves are going to get it done. If Texas finds a way to secure 14 offensive boards like Miami did in the last round, the Boilermakers will find themself in a dog fight down the stretch with an 11th seed.
In Conclusion
Purdue has more paths to victory than Texas. If the Boilermakers can continue to shoot the lights out from distance and compete on the boards, I don’t see a way forward for the Longhorns. However, if Texas can slow Purdue down from behind the arc or get after them on the offensive glass, things get dicey.
KenPom predicts an 82-74 Purdue victory. If that’s the score, it means Purdue hit outside shots and handled their business on the glass.
The Longhorns need to play this game in the 70s, or, even better, in the 60’s like they did against NC State. That means Sean Miller read this preview and should get me a chunk of his game check.
Purdue has more paths to victory, but the Longhorns aren’t without recourse.
If this game comes down to the last possession and Vokietaitis goal tends a Braden Smith floater to secure the Texas victory, I may never recover.
Here’s hoping the Boilermakers do the job and keep my Thursday night relatively stress-free and uneventful. It’s been a rough year, and it’s only March; I could use this one.
