What if I had told you on Opening Day that all of the following would happen to the Cubs before the All-Star break?
- Four of the five starters in the Opening Day rotation would spend time on the IL
- Cade Horton would make only two starts and then have Tommy John surgery
- In all, 13 Cubs pitchers would wind up on the IL
- Alex Bregman would be a huge disappointment
- The staff leader in saves would have… five
- The staff would allow a NL-worst 148 home runs
- Dansby Swanson would be hitting .175 in mid-June
- The team would lose 10 in a row as part of a 7-22 stretch
Why, you’d probably have said that team would be in last place in the NL Central and on their way to a 90-plus loss season, right?
All of those things DID happen. And yet, the Cubs have reached the All-Star break not in last place, but 12 games over .500 at 54-42, in the top wild-card spot and just five games behind the Brewers in the division.
Of course, lots of things went also right
for the Cubs: Two 10-game winning streaks, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s amazing run, a hot streak by Swanson, waiver-wire relievers stepping up when injuries decimated the bullpen, and while it’s fashionable to bash Craig Counsell, I believe the Cubs manager’s steady hand and useful managing of the pen has helped the Cubs get to this point. If they do overtake the Brewers and win the division, Counsell’s likely the NL Manager of the Year.
Here are my letter grades for Cubs players so far this year. Remember! These are just my personal opinions and I definitely grade on a curve.
Position players
Carson Kelly: A-
Kelly’s done everything he’s been asked to do and more. In addition to a solid bat, he’s become one of the best catchers in the league at ABS challenges, currently ranking second in percentage correct (77 percent) of all catchers who have challenged more than 10 times.
Incidentally, happy birthday to Carson, who turns 32 today. I’d love to see the Cubs keep him around another year or to. He’s one of Jed Hoyer’s best free-agent signings.
Michael Busch: C+
Busch got off to a terrible start and after his first 14 games was batting just .118/.220/.157 (6-for-51).
Since then his numbers are close to what he did last year: .260/.392/.436 in 81 games with 11 home runs. That’s the entire power output for the season, a bit low for a guy who had 34 last year (and four more in eight postseason games).
Hopefully he raises his game in the second half.
Nico Hoerner: C-
Nico’s offense has stalled since the end of April, as I noted in yesterday’s “Three up, three down” article.
He continues to play solid defense, which is the only reason this grade isn’t a “D.” As with Busch, here’s hoping Nico returns to form after the break.
Dansby Swanson: C+
As noted in the intro to this article, Swanson was mired in an awful slump in mid-June. Then he had that monster series against the Mets in New York. Over his last 22 games: .310/.330/.702 (26-for-84) with four doubles, a triple, nine home runs, 30 RBI, six stolen bases and 20 runs scored. Here’s hoping he keeps up that production when the season resumes.
And of course, Swanson always adds value with his exceptional defense.
Alex Bregman: C-
This might have been a D+ if not for Bregman’s two homers over the weekend, both of which helped the Cubs win games. He really does appear to be coming out of his massive slump, which has lasted the entire season up to now. A productive Bregman would be a huge benefit to this team.
As with his other infield mates, Bregman has played solid defense at third base. That matters.
Ian Happ: C-
The streaky Happ hit a lot of home runs early, but has been in a recent slump.
Everyone here knows how Happ could easily go into a hot streak coming out of the All-Star break. As with Bregman and Hoerner, that would be really useful for the team.
It really is kind of amazing that with all these slumping hitters, the Cubs rank fifth in MLB at the break with 484 runs scored. That is a pace for 816 runs for the season.
Pete Crow-Armstrong: A+
I don’t know how many more superlatives I can put on PCA’s season. Right now he might be the best hitter in baseball, and his numbers over the last two months are off the charts.
At 5.8 bWAR he’s leading all MLB position players and in most years that’d be a direct line to MVP honors. Of course, there’s a guy named Ohtani who might have a call on that award, too.
Extrapolating that 5.8 WAR figure, PCA has a chance at a 10 WAR season. Only three position players in Cubs history have had a 10 WAR season: Rogers Hornsby in his 1929 MVP season, Ernie Banks in his second MVP season (1959) and Sammy Sosa in 2001.
So this could be an historic season for Pete, and he’s only 24.
Meanwhile, have a look at some of his great plays from this year, both offensively and defensively.
Seiya Suzuki: B+
Suzuki missed the first 12 games of the season with a knee injury suffered in the World Baseball Classic. Then he got off to a fast start on returning but then went into an extended slump. In 28 games from May 10 to June 10 Suzuki batted just .194/.245/.272 (20-for-103) with 33 strikeouts. That almost exactly coincided with the Cubs’ 7-22 stretch.
Since then, the Cubs are 19-7 and Suzuki has hit .308/.373/.567 in those 26 games with nine doubles, six home runs and 26 RBI.
He’s on pace to have a 4 WAR season. I’d like to see the Cubs keep him around another 2-3 years.
Miguel Amaya: B-
Amaya has started 37 of the 96 games behind the plate, or 38.5 percent. This is about the split I envisioned, with Carson Kelly starting 55, or 57.2 percent. (Moisés Ballesteros started the other four.) So it’s about 60/40 Kelly. Amaya has played well behind the plate and his .704 OPS is just fine. He ranks 21st in ABS percentage (63 percent) among all catchers with 10 or more challenges.
Really, the Cubs catching tandem is among the best in baseball.
Michael Conforto: B
I was more in favor of the Cubs keeping Dylan Carlson as a backup outfielder out of Spring Training, but Conforto got the position and has produced. He’s not a great defender but is adequate, and his bat has played well. Of his eight home runs, three have come as a pinch hitter, and his first as a Cub was this walk-off blast against the Reds [VIDEO].
Fun fact, if you didn’t know (and I just came across this fact by accident while looking up something else): Conforto’s mom is Tracie Ruiz-Conforto, who won an Olympic gold medal in synchronized swimming in 1984.
Matt Shaw: B-
In 56 games, interrupted by two IL stints, Shaw has hit a bit better than he did last year, though he seems out of place in the outfield. He’s gotten a bit better at taking routes to balls, but his arm doesn’t seem well suited for the position. I would not be surprised if he’s traded for pitching help. He’s expected to be back from the IL shortly after the All-Star break.
Moisés Ballesteros: C-
After his first 25 games, Ballesteros was batting .387/.435/.710 (24-for-62) with five home runs and there was some Rookie of the Year talk.
Then his bat fell off the proverbial cliff. After that, in 34 games: .128/.217/.170 (12-for-94) with just one home run and 24 strikeouts. He was sent back to Iowa, where he isn’t hitting all that well, either: .250/.374/.375 (18-for-72) with one home run in 20 games.
I think here we have to remember that he is only 22. The hit tool is there. It’ll come back eventually, and he’ll have a place on this team. Might not be this year, though.
Pedro Ramirez: Incomplete
Ramirez has been on the Cubs’ active roster since May 23. Did you know that? Maybe not, because he barely plays. He’s started just 11 games (of his 26 games played) and none since June 25; most of his time has been as a pinch hitter.
I’d love to see Ramirez give Hoerner a break from time to time. He has talent and as a switch hitter can be a useful PH. He is only 22 and definitely has a future with this team.
Kevin Alcántara: Incomplete
See Ramirez. He plays even less; just 17 games played (five starts) and 17 at-bats, in which he has four hits. One of those hits was a key two-run single in Sunday’s win.
He’s likely headed back to Triple-A Iowa when Shaw returns and I could see him included in a trade for pitching at the deadline.
Justin Dean: B
Dean gets a grade while the two above him don’t. Why? Because Dean is on this team to be a defensive replacement and pinch-runner and he has done those jobs well. If the Cubs decide to keep Alcántara when Shaw returns, Dean could go to Iowa.
He did have this exciting moment — a triple for his first big-league hit in his first game as a Cub [VIDEO].
Scott Kingery, Dylan Carlson and Nicky Lopez also were position players for this year’s Cubs. It was the second year in a row for Lopez as a Cub. In that time he went 1-for-23 with four walks, five strikeouts and three runs scored. Meanwhile, after the Cubs let Lopez go he was picked up by the Rangers, for whom he is batting .324/.359/.378 (36-for-111) with four stolen bases and 12 RBI in 39 games. Go figure.
Pitchers
Shōta Imanaga: C+
It’s a tale of three seasons for Imanaga.
First nine starts: 2.32 ERA, 0.902 WHIP, 59 strikeouts and only five HR allowed in 54.1 innings
Next four starts: 10.80 ERA, 1.524 WHIP, 12 (!) home runs allowed in 21.2 innings
Next six starts: 2.81 ERA, 1.219 WHIP, 31 strikeouts and five HR allowed in 32 innings
So which is the real Imanaga? Two of those three guys are good-to-excellent MLB pitchers. The third is a DFA candidate.
His overall season has been decent enough, but that four-start run, woof. Hopefully the second half is more like those first nine.
Colin Rea: C+
Rea also had a bad stretch of 10 starts where he posted a 6.35 ERA, but since then in four starts he’s had a 2.61 ERA and allowed just two home runs in 20.2 innings. He’s a perfectly cromulent fifth starter, unfortunately with all the rotation injuries he’s had to step up into a higher slot. He’s done okay… most of the time.
Javier Assad: B-
Assad got absolutely pounded in his second start of the year: nine runs and 11 hits in 4.1 innings to the Phillies, the only game the Cubs lost to them this year.
Since then (and that includes a trip to Iowa): 13 games (six starts), 3.33 ERA, 1.032 WHIP, and the Cubs have won 11 of those 13 games. Like Rea, Assad generally puts the Cubs in a decent position to win.
Matthew Boyd: B-
Boyd has had two IL stints, one for a bicep issue and one for a weird knee injury he suffered while playing with his kids. (Nominee for injury of the year!)
Since returning from the second injury: four starts, 2.86 ERA, 1.273 WHIP. Like the others above, Boyd generally gives the Cubs a good chance to win each time he goes out.
Edward Cabrera: C-
Cabrera started out well, but over his most recent eight starts: 7.04 ERA, 1.595 WHIP, 11 HR in 37 innings. Then he suffered a lower body injury pitching against the Mets June 23 and it’s unclear when he’ll return. It’s likely not until next month at the earliest.
Jameson Taillon: D
Jamo had his moments over the 13 starts he made before departing with a hamstring injury, but 20 home runs allowed in 67.2 innings is just awful. Compare that to 24 homers served up in 129.2 innings last year, which is almost twice as many innings, and that’s not good either.
He’s been on a rehab assignment and appears likely to rejoin the rotation in the homestand after the break. Keep the ball in the yard, please, Jamo.
Ben Brown: A
This is a really sad story that could have been a great one. Brown was throwing well in relief when put into the rotation due to injury and he was lights-out as a starter: eight starts, 1.70 ERA, 0.898 WHIP, just one home run allowed in 42.1 innings, with 41 strikeouts. He also had a streak of 251 batters faced without allowing a home run, having given up one to the first batter he faced this year, Jacob Young of the Nationals on Opening Day. The next homer off him was by George Springer of the Blue Jays on June 19.
Then he got hurt, a recurrence of a neck injury from 2024 that had apparently been mis-diagnosed. When he went on the IL it was unclear when — or even whether — he’d pitch again this year.
We did get a hint Sunday from Craig Counsell that Brown might be back this year:
Brown will begin a throwing program a week after the break and eventually return as an “out-getter,” Counsell said. The Cubs are unsure how Brown will be utilized when he gets back from his neck injury.
A healthy Brown could be a huge asset to the Cubs down the stretch… and in October.
Jacob Webb: B
Webb had a 5.06 ERA and 2.063 WHIP, with three home runs allowed in 10.2 innings, at the end of April.
Since then he’s been very, very good: 29 appearances, 2.35 ERA, 0.976 WHIP, three home runs in 30.2 innings. He’s stepped up in Daniel Palencia’s absence to post five saves, and has not allowed a run in his last nine games.
This grade would have been an “A” if not for the bad start.
Trent Thornton: B-
Thornton has had his moments, though with a very low K rate (11.8 percent, just barely above his walk rate of 9 percent). He’s converted three save opportunities without a blown save and has allowed one run or less in 23 of his 25 appearances. A useful scrap-heap pickup.
Gavin Hollowell: C-
The ERA (2.79) looks okay but … eight walks among 43 batters faced? That’s not good. He’s heading back to Iowa as soon as the injured guys come back.
Tyler Ferguson: C
Sort of like Hollowell, but without the walks (none in 34 batters faced). There’s some talent here but he’s 32 and also likely gone when the injured guys come back.
Ryan Rolison: B-
Rolison throws well for a while — at one point he had 14 straight scoreless appearances — but then he gets hit hard, and gives up a couple of runs. Good K rate, kind of high walk rate. As a lefty, he’ll likely stick around for a while.
Caleb Thielbar: D
This is not the Thielbar from a year ago. Was off to a good start when he — stop me if you’ve heard this before — suffered a hamstring injury. That kept him out four weeks and since his return: 4.74 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, five home runs allowed in 19 innings. I find myself wondering if he’s not 100 percent yet.
Phil Maton: D-
Another guy who’s been injured much of the year. He’s back now, and here is a potential explanation for the poor performance:
Maton won’t use the knee injury as an excuse but appreciated the Cubs giving him time to heal. He said he’s working on going back to his old mechanics that alleviated some of the pain. He was scheduled to make a second rehab outing Saturday, but the Cubs, who normally take a more conservative approach, were desperate for help.
“I felt ready to go,” he said. “There might be a need, but it was one of those situations where I told them I felt I was in a good spot mechanically, so if you guys need me I’m ready to go. I feel like I’m in a really good spot, so hoping that slingshots me into a better second half.”
Let’s hope he’s right. Maton was an effective reliever for the Cardinals and Rangers last year, the reason Hoyer signed him. A second half like that would be a huge boost to the pen.
David Peterson: Incomplete
Peterson had one good outing, one bad one (really really really bad!) and then another good one. Thus the proverbial jury is still out. He was supposedly going to benefit from the Cubs’ infield defense, promoted as a ground-ball pitcher, but of the 43 outs he’s recorded as a Cub, only eight were by ground ball.
Perhaps that’ll change in the second half. A Peterson who’s as effective as he was from 2024-25 with the Mets (3.67 ERA and 4.5 bWAR in 51 starts) would be a huge help to the staff.
Drew Pomeranz: D
The Pomeranz reunion doesn’t seem to be working, so far. Small sample size, just four appearances and 4.1 innings, but already two home runs allowed. It’ll have to get better or they’ll likely just release him.
Hoby Milner: B
Milner throws sidearm junk and you look at it and wonder how he gets guys out, but he does. He was basically as effective this year as he had been for three years in Milwaukee under Counsell, but is out recovering from an appendectomy. He’s likely back next month.
Daniel Palencia: B
Palencia’s numbers were in line with last year’s when he went out about a month ago with elbow inflammation. He had only three saves largely because there weren’t a lot of opportunities. He’s not yet on a rehab assignment but could be back by the end of this month.
Ethan Roberts: C-
Like a lot of other guys here, Roberts had his moments early on. He also is a nominee for “Weird Injury Of the Year”:
Roberts said he was on his ninth rep in a 10-throw workout involving a medicine ball, which is part of his daily routine. Without space to do the drill in the weight room, he moved to a tunnel at Citizens Bank Park. On the ill-fated throw, the medicine ball rebounded off one wall and hit a vent cover on another, dislodging it.
The vent was about to strike Roberts’ leg, so the pitcher reached back out of pure reaction. The cut is on the underside of the pitcher’s fingertip, which impacts his ability to throw. He did not require stitches, but he needs to let the wound heal before he can ramp up his throwing intensity.
He threw well for a while after that, but is now on the IL with a forearm injury. He’s been assigned to Iowa for a rehab assignment but has not yet pitched.
Jordan Wicks: Incomplete
Wicks made a start against the Pirates in May and was terrible. Then he started against the Cardinals and was slightly less terrible.
Sent back to Iowa, he was recalled and wound up in a save situation in extra innings in Milwaukee and converted the save, his first. Three days later he posted another save by throwing three innings and allowing one run in the 23-3 blowout of the Padres.
Wicks does have talent and is still only 26. Maybe they can turn him into a multi-inning lefty reliever.
Cade Horton: Incomplete
What might have been.
The following other pitchers appeared in at least one game for the Cubs before the All-Star break: Charlie Barnes, Ty Black, Hunter Harvey, Luke Little, Corbin Martin, Riley Martin, Jayden Murray, Yacksel Rios, Vince Velasquez, Bryse Wilson and Jake Woodford, all names you can remember while playing Immaculate Grid.
