Right now, the Detroit Tigers are on a 28-17 run going back to June 1, and have crept back into the fringes of the wild card conversation. They don’t want to sell, and there’s no word of even any exploratory talks on the subject, but their situation remains extremely difficult. The Tigers are winning, but they can’t gain much ground in the wild card chase anyway. They’re not so far back, but there are many other teams that could also get hot between them and a wild card berth for this to be easy
even if they continue to play great ball. On top of all these factors, as we’ve laid out, the Tigers are a little over the luxury tax threshold already, which will really screw up their 2027 draft and potentially their long-term future if they can’t shed a little payroll at the deadline. And so, we remain of two minds. Maybe the Tigers can get into this thing. They’ve certainly shown themselves to be a pretty good team since getting healthy in June, but they have to seriously consider trading their ace for future talent by the August 3 trade deadline.
We’re going to talk in more specific terms about various prospects who could be available. I’m proceeding from a starting point in which the Tigers should expect a top 50 level prospect nationally, and at least one quality secondary piece. They aren’t going to get Jesus Made from the Brewers or even Josue de Paula from the Dodgers, arguably the game’s top prospects, in this trade, but they should certainly expect a blue chip centerpiece here.
A note about prospects and prospect terms, is that a 50 future value grade on a prospect basically conveys top 100 status, and projects for an average major league regular, whatever their position. FanGraphs, Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, each of these sources produce solid lists, but they lack the resources that teams have to evaluate prospects in real time throughout a major league season. At best, their lists, like our own Tigers rankings, are snapshots at one point in time. Teams have their own internal grading of all national prospects, and those valuations will also vary based on team philosophies toward acquisition and player development.
All of which is to say that you can’t just declare trades, or trade ideas, good or bad based on these rankings, as though any of these lists are precisely accurate.
The most recent relevant Tigers example was the deal that sent Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers in 2024. The right-hander was one of the better pitchers in the game up to the 2024 deadline, though on an expiring deal, and the Tigers got a 50 FV top 100 prospect at the time in catcher Thayron Liranzo, and a 45 FV grade shortstop in Trey Sweeney. If there’s a bar here, it’s that the primary piece they get back needs to be better than Liranzo, and the secondary piece should be better than Sweeney.
Key teams reportedly interested in acquiring Tarik Skubal include the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Tampa Bay Rays, the Philadelphia Phillies, the Atlanta Braves, the Chicago Cubs, and the Milwaukee Brewers. Of that group, only the Dodgers, Rays, and Brewers really have strong farm systems that could actually entice Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg to trade Skubal. Of course, the difficulty there is that the Rays, Dodgers, and Brewers are arguably the three smartest teams in baseball. You can lose your shirt trying to trade with them if you aren’t careful.
The difficulty, as if there were only one, is that the Tigers will want some major league ready pitching talent. That may not be the main piece of such a deal, but the Tigers clearly need starting depth with options available for 2027, and they could really use another good young hitting prospect as well, preferably one who has reached the upper levels of the minor leagues. Taking shots at teenaged prospects still in Single-A ball is not the way.
With Kevin McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, and Riley Greene here for several more seasons, this isn’t going to be a Tigers teardown in any sense of the word. Instead, what the Tigers need to do is add quality talent to bolster their immediate weaknesses and try to set themselves up to re-tool things in the offseason, and maybe, just maybe, make a strong run at a wild card slot down the stretch anyway.
It’s also worth noting that while Skubal is the most talented pitcher available, he’s not the most valuable starting pitcher at this deadline. That would be the Twins’ Joe Ryan, who is a near-elite starting pitcher and comes with team control through 2027. That team control means the Twins should be able to leverage a similar package to Skubal, and potentially even a slightly better one. For certain teams, particularly smaller market ones who don’t typically solve their roster issues with money, Ryan is the more appealing option because they don’t have to put all their eggs in the 2026 basket in his case.
Of the six teams that have gotten mentions as interested in acquiring Skubal, the Phillies, Braves, and Cubs will be pretty hard pressed to come up with a great package as their farm systems are weaker overall. Maybe the Tigers would disagree, and national prospect lists at FanGraphs and Baseball America don’t compare to the detailed individual scouting each front office does internally, but it’s tough to see where the Braves and Cubs having the prospects to win this sweepstakes.
There is perhaps a package of three of the Cubs top five prospects that could overcome the lack of a really top shelf talent, but I doubt it. On the other hand, Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg have strong ties to the Cubs organization and perhaps have a better line on their farm system than some others.
Meanwhile, the Braves should not be expected to deal Didier Fuentes, who is really the only player they can offer as the main piece of a trade proposal. They do have a bit of upper level talent that could fill out a Fuentes for Skubal deal, but the Tigers should be able to do better elsewhere.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies could center a package around top prospect SS Aidan Miller perhaps, but that’s really the only prospect they have that would make them a trade fit for the Tigers. Right-hander Andrew Painter was an excellent prospect with triple digit gas prior to Tommy John surgery, but his stuff has wavered and his command hasn’t developed since returning from the injury. If the Tigers could get Miller and Painter? Well, that’s interesting at least, and with an aging and expensive roster that hasn’t been able to get it done yet, it’s not at all out of character for Dave Dombrowski to be the most aggressive buyer at the trade deadline. The real flaw in the idea is that Miller underwent a nerve deadening procedure in his lower back in early June to combat ongoing lumbar pain and inflammation. If things went well, Miller is a pretty intriguing prospect, but there’s plenty of risk there until he gets back on the field and shows he can stay healthy for a few months straight. I have a fascination with Painter, but if they can’t get Miller in the deal this just isn’t that appealing.
Tampa Bay Rays
The obvious centerpiece of a deal with the Rays would be centerfielder, Theo Gillen. A left-handed hitter with plenty of footspeed and growing power, Gillen is a fairly Tigerish hitting prospect, the type they’ve hunted through the top rounds of four drafts run by the Scott Harris front office. He was drafted out of high school 18th overall in the 2024 draft, and at the time I expected the Tigers to pick him, anticipating that Bryce Rainer would already be gone. Instead, they took Rainer, but Gillen’s advanced hitting skills fit the Tigers’ eye very well.
Gillen has good plate discipline, makes a lot of in-zone contact, and while he strikes out a little more than you’d like, his swinging strike rate is actually pretty good at 9-10 percent. The 20-year-old torched High-A this year, mashing 12 homers in just 57 games. It’s been a slow start since moving up to Double-A in late June, but he’s just adapting to a tougher level with a much better brand of left-handed pitcher to deal with. Gillen’s one real issue is that he does take too many called strikes, but that’s still more of a feature than a bug in terms of how that profile tends to play out in the major leagues. The selectivity, combined with good contact and plenty of pop when he gets something he likes, is quite promising. Gillen is developing into a pretty good centerfielder, but his one flaw is that he really does not throw very well. He had surgery for a torn labrum in high school, and while he was viewed as a potential shortstop prior to that, the Rays immediately converted him to center field after the draft. Acquiring him might push Max Clark over to right field, but that would be quite a duo covering tons of ground in the outfield.
Beyond Gillen, the Rays have plenty of other good prospects with which to compose a deal. They also could offer a major league ready starter in swingman Ian Seymour, who is 27 years old and has five years of team control left until free agency. The lefty has made seven starts this year and pitched in a variety of scenarios. He’s been a little home run prone but his strikeout and walk numbers are pretty good.
Brody Hopkins and Michael Forret are talented Triple-A level starting prospects. Hopkins is still flawed in the command department, but Forret might be what the doctor ordered. Ty Johnson is also at Triple-A and has a good fastball and breaking stuff, but needs an upgraded changeup or some other path to handling left-handed hitters a bit better. Right-handed hitting shortstop Carson Williams has plenty of power and plenty of swing and miss, but he’s also an outstanding defender who could help balance out the Tigers lefty heavy roster if they can get him to be more disciplined at the plate. If the Tigers can get the pitching they want, Williams would be a decent get, I just don’t think he’s going to hit major league pitching enough to be more than a part-time player.
Overall, I don’t know that the Tigers can get Gillen, but the Rays have plenty to offer. Gillen himself may be too rich for their blood just to take a crack at one postseason with Skubal. It’s just about how motivated they are to acquire Skubal and take a shot this season. Gillen and Seymour would be a very solid return if the Tigers could land that package. Seymour, Foret, and Williams would certainly work as well.
Once again, the Tigers don’t have to trade Skubal, and their general reticence in the trade market over four seasons says they can credibly hold out for a good package because teams really don’t know what the Tigers are doing. We have the same issue in evaluating the home team. If the best they can get is a player they have a 50 FV grade on, passing on trades, keeping Skubal, taking a shot at October, and ultimately getting the qualifying offer compensation pick isn’t a terrible outcome. However, there’s still the irritating detail of having to get under the threshold to avoid having such a pick pushed back three rounds as a penalty.
Hopefully someone else will be aggressive and make it a moot point. As always, trading with the Rays is scary. Their ability to assess their own young players and give you the exact players that won’t really become good major leaguers is well documented.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Now we come to the big dog on the block. Not only do the Dodgers have the prospects to comfortably make a Skubal deal, they’re also the team most likely to throw a whole pile of cash at Skubal on a long-term deal, and might be extra motivated to acquire him and get a massive extension offer arranged before the game’s contract/payroll ruleset changes, potentially limiting or ending most of their deferred money shenanigans.
Presumably, 21-year-old left-handed hitting outfielder Josue de Paula is off the table, although one can make an argument that outfielders Zyhir Hope and Mike Sirota hold very similar value. Of the three, Hope is a little riskier as a hitter, while de Paula profiles as a below average defensive corner outfielder but is an extremely impressive young power hitter. Both are left-handed. Sirota is right-handed, and he’s gone crazy at the Double-A level this season despite not hitting for the home run power Hope and de Paula have. Sirota has the speed to play center field, but he’s still below average in terms of his jumps. The raw bat speed, hands, and adjustments the Dodgers have made with his swing are really coming together this season. He may always strike out more than you like, but he’s also liable to hit for average and plenty of power because of the steady hard contact he makes.
Any of the three outfielders, the top three in most rankings of their system, would be fine as a primary piece. Of the three I prefer de Paula despite his youth, but would be quite happy to get Sirota as the biggest piece of a Skubal trade. 19-year-old shortstop Emil Morales is more risky than those three by a fair amount, but does have pretty enormous upside. He’s just younger than I think the Tigers would prefer in a trade return.
In terms of pitching, the idea has been floated that the Dodgers could include right-handed starter Emmet Sheehan to give the Tigers controllable major league pitching in the deal. Sheehan has been bitten by the home run ball this season, but he does collect good amounts of strikeouts with reasonable walk rates. The 26-year-old has three years of team control left, but would need some Fetter tinkering to get him back on track as a solid mid-rotation starter.
More interesting to me on the pitching side are right-handers River Ryan and Christian Zazueta.
Ryan throws 100 with a nasty breaking ball, and he throws strikes. However, his comeback from Tommy John surgery has been undercut by hamstring injuries this season. Ryan was a closer in college and really didn’t blossom into a high end starting pitching talent until 2023-2024. He then blew out his elbow, and since returning has continued to be plagued with minor injuries. On the one hand, he has very low mileage for a pitcher his age and tremendous gas and breaking stuff. On the other, he can’t stay on the mound and might actually be better served moving back to a relief role.
Zazueta is having a breakout year. The 21-year-0ld right-hander has a good rising fastball in the mid-90’s with a plus changeup and good command. His breaking stuff has improved this season, and he is racking up tons of whiffs at the Double-A level with a nice delivery and modest effort that bodes well for his developing command and durability. The Tigers could really use a fine young pitching prospect to develop in their system with an eye to 2027-2028, and Zazueta fits the bill.
Milwaukee Brewers
This certainly wouldn’t be a very Brewers thing to do, but the idea of pairing Jacob Misiorowski and Tarik Skubal back-to-back in the postseason would have even the mighty Dodgers feeling queasy. The Brewers have at least inquired on Skubal’s availability according to reports, so the idea has at least peaked the interest of their front office as the deadline approaches.
They aren’t going to trade uber-prospect Jesus Made, but I would lbe happy to land 19-year-old shortstop prospect Luis Peña in a Skubal trade. Peña has a really nice combination of hit tool and raw power, he’s just putting the ball on the ground too much to maximize his juice. There would be some more development involved here than with some of the other hitting prospects already mentioned. Peña adds good speed on the bases, and while he seems to be bound for third base long-term, he draws 55 FV grades from most sources and as the centerpiece of a Skubal trade would do pretty nicely.
A package of center field prospect Jett Williams and right-handed starting pitcher Logan Henderson would also be reasonably intriguing, although without the same upside as Peña possesses. The Brewers have a decent crop of pitching prospects beyond Henderson as well, so perhaps in compensation for not getting Peña, the Tigers could pick another arm from their system. There is also a lighter hitting but high contact right-handed hitting shortstop in Cooper Pratt, who looks bound to stay at the position. There is also speedy center fielder Luis Lara, who has already reached the show at age 21 and is a really good hitter, just one with below average power projections.
Peña is really the guy who excites me in this system. Without him, I suspect at least a few other teams might make better offers, but it all comes down to what the Tigers want, and what their own evaluations tell them. Still, the Brewers system is among the game’s best, and there are a whole lot of different combinations that could build out a Skubal trade. It’s just that without Peña I fear we might be looking at a good crop of role players rather than a seriously impactful young player to keep building around alongside Kevin McGonigle.
The Tigers should do very well in a Skubal trade
We haven’t even gone through every team that could potentially make a deal for Tarik Skubal. In a tightly bunched field with most teams still reasonably in the hunt for a postseason spot, there should be plenty of competition for Skubal and there could be a surprise bidder who swoops in with a package the Tigers’ front office likes best, even if it’s not obvious via publicly available prospect sites who are always running behind the curve in season. It’s just a matter of identifying the right players and getting the best package, and which teams not normally in on a top trade target at the deadline actually have the stomach to go after a win-now move like acquiring the Tigers ace.
Of course, we still don’t have the faintest clue what the Tigers’ front office is really thinking here. They don’t like to talk, and they leak far less than the Avila or Dombrowski regimes did, and so we may not even know if they’re seriously shopping Skubal until a deal is made. We may not know they’ve decided to keep him and take a shot this season, despite the difficult circumstances, until deadline day, when no deal comes to pass. If they’re going for it, they really need another good reliever at a minimum, and there’s still the thorny question of the payroll threshold to be considered.
The current scenario is the toughest we’ve seen for a Tigers front office since at least 2017. The decisions made over the next 10 days will be crucial for both their chances in 2026, but more importantly for their ability to remain in contention for years to come. There just isn’t a simple answer. They already placed some big bets on the 2026 season, and may feel unable to pivot, despite the difficulty of even landing a wild card spot over the season’s final two months. If they’re going to do anything at all, it feels like they need to do a lot. There isn’t that much middle ground. If they make one deal it feels like they’re going to need to make several all at once, and they better be good. The Tigers are doing everything they can to get back into the race and so it is going to be a wild week into the August 3 deadline.
