I have had a relatively good handle on UW for most of the year with a 6-2 record picking Dawg games ATS. The first game I got wrong was the loss to USC, where I thought UW would have more trouble hanging around with the Trojans than they did. My second ATS loss came this week, where I expected UW to lose convincingly in Lincoln. Overall, my expectation for how the game would play out was not so far off- UW’s defense kept them in the game, the offense struggled with Nebraska’s front seven, and it took
some miracle plays late in the game to pull it out. The surprise was that the miracles (and Anthony Colandrea’s sloppiness) were not only enough for UW to cover, they even managed to pull out a signature road win. The defeat left me 3-3 ATS for the week and 27-26-1 for the year.
Penn St @ Washington (-2)
These teams have something interesting in common- they both appeared to be on the verge of the wheels coming off of the season before getting back on track against Purdue. The Dawgs compounded their bounce-back a week ago with a surprising and bizarre win over Nebraska. Penn St has not had the opportunity to back up their victory, so it remains plausible that it was a blip on the radar. Flawed as the Dawgs are, they are clearly a cut above the teams Penn St has beaten- Marshall, Temple, Buffalo, and Purdue. As with much of the B1G, Penn St’s biggest problem has been offensive consistency against good defenses. Matt Campbell brought QB Rocco Becht with him from Iowa St and Becht struggled enough early in conference play that there were whispers about benching him. Unlike some of the Nittany Lion teams in years past, they do not have an electric running game to offset the passing troubles.
As usual, Penn St is better on the defensive side, albeit not as dominant as you might expect (25th in defensive SP+). The glimpses of an explosive UW offense this year came when Elijah Brown was getting the ball out quickly and letting his receivers make plays. It sounds like Demond Williams will take the reins back from Brown after closing out the win over Nebraska. There’s little reason to believe the running game will offer much at this point in the season, and Williams has been at his best when able to use his legs. Jedd Fisch will have to come up with creative ways to get Fisch to either throw quickly or get on the move. If the Dawgs can design that sort of gameplan and continue to excel in the turnover battle, it is definitely a winnable game. Ultimately, this one looks very close to a toss-up to be decided by things like field position, turnovers, penalties, and a couple of big plays. For those reasons, I will err on the side of the home team.
Washington 20 – Penn St 17
Nebraska @ Illinois (+4.5)
Husker fans turned against Matt Rhule hard after the home loss to UW last week, but he has a good chance to turn things around quickly. He will need to get the offense back in gear after scoring 17 points or fewer in each of the last three games. Illinois sits at a solid 5-3 with a confounding combination of a win over Oregon and a loss to Purdue. I think Nebraska’s defense has enough to pull out the win, but probably not enough juice to cover.
Nebraska 21 – Illinois 20
UCLA @ Minnesota (+5.5)
The Bruins have managed to remain undefeated despite losing some offensive firepower after the injury to Nico Iamaleava. Minnesota will be their toughest test without him. The Gophers are coming off a heart-breaking late loss to Indiana. Other than a befuddling blowout loss to Purdue, they have played like a top-15 team in conference. This looks like another game where the defenses will control the game. I like UCLA’s proven ability to execute in high-leverage situations and their consistent rushing attack.
UCLA 23 – Minnesota 20
Oregon @ Ohio St (-7.5)
This matchup looked like the best the B1G had to offer going into the year. Now, the teams have five combined losses and their collective CFP hopes are hanging on by a thread. Ohio St needs a win to stay in the race and Oregon is already out of it. Oregon’s offense has not been great all year and has simply not been good enough to beat top-25 teams since Dante Moore was injured. The absence of Julian Sayin keeps the door open a crack to steal a low-scoring game, but not enough for me to pick them.
Ohio St 28 – Oregon 20
Michigan St @ Michigan (-13.5)
Wasn’t Pat Fitzgerald supposed to immediately raise Michigan St’s floor? A year after they went 4-8 with their best wins coming against Maryland and BC, they sit at 2-6 with their best win over Toledo. They gave both Illinois and Northwestern competitive games in conference, but have otherwise been non-competitive. The Wolverines, meanwhile, have done nothing to earn a two-TD spread. Their win over UTEP is the only one of their eight games to be decided by more than a single score. Tommy Carr has not done anything at QB to change that assumption. It all adds up to a close Michigan win.
Michigan 28 – Michigan St 21
Iowa @ Northwestern (-2.5)
Both of these teams are part of a cadre of solid teams with really good defenses, but not enough offense to break out of the pack. Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan are all destined to finish with around 8 wins and sneak into the back end of the top-25 every so often. Iowa is ascendant at the moment after a big win over Wisconsin last week. Northwestern couldn’t hold onto an early lead against Oregon, but I will pick them to get back on track at home.
Northwestern 23 – Iowa 20
