For most of a season that, in the grand scheme of things is still in its infancy, most of the angst directed at the Phillies has been towards an inconsistent and maddening offense.
That, of course, makes sense. After all, it has been the lineup that has torpedoed four attempts by this talented team to win a World Series. But in the three-game series the Phils just wrapped up against the Cubs, the pitching staff gave up 28 runs, capped off by Jesus Luzardo’s astonishing implosion Wednesday night:
- 5.1 IP, 12 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Through
18 games, this vaunted pitching staff’s ERA stands at 4.92, 5th-worst in Major League Baseball. Only the Cardinals (4.94), White Sox (5.02), Nationals (5.89) and Astros (6.17), have been worse. They have allowed a league-high .272 batting average against them. Phillies’ pitchers are every bit as responsible for their -25 run differential that is 3rd-worst in the league.
- White Sox (-38)
- Giants (-27)
- Phillies (-25)
- Blue Jays (-24)
It is still very early in the season. Only 18 games have been played. And yes, it does provide some comfort that the defending AL pennant winners (Toronto) are off to the same rough start as the Phils.
If you’re a bit bewildered by the Phillies’ pitchers through the first three weeks of the season, you have every right to be. We’ve seen multiple instances where they like world beaters for long stretches and then are suddenly done in by the big inning or a single lackluster start. As a result, the overall numbers of the individual pitchers don’t look great.
Cristopher Sanchez’ ERA remains a sparkling 2.01 through his first four starts, even though he hasn’t featured his best stuff as of yet. Andrew Painter’s is 3.77, Aaron Nola’s is 4.03, Luzardo’s jumped to a ghastly 7.94 after Wednesday night’s disaster, and Taijuan Walker’s 7.36 ERA is also unsightly.
When the strength of the team is supposed to be the starting rotation, these types of numbers foment an 8-10 start.
But the underlying metrics for the staff indicate they have been, by far, the unluckiest pitching staff in baseball through the season’s first three weeks.
According to Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement, their 3.5 fWAR is 2nd-best in MLB, behind only the Seattle Mariners (3.7). Yes, that’s right, Fangraphs believes the Phillies have the No. 2 pitching staff in baseball thus far. Although their 4.92 ERA is 5th-worst, their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.06 is 2nd-best. There is not a single pitcher of note on the entire staff who is out-pitching his underlying metrics.
- Cristopher Sanchez: 2.01 ERA, 1.90 FIP (0.11 E-F)
- Aaron Nola: 3.56 ERA, 4.03 FIP, (0.47 E-F)
- Taijuan Walker: 7.36 ERA, 6.50 FIP (0.87 E-F)
- Andrew Painter: 3.77 ERA, 1.55 FIP (2.21 E-F)
- Jesus Luzardo: 7.94 ERA, 2.49 FIP (5.05 E-F!!!)
For the uninitiated, FIP uses a formula that factors in only strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed, filtering out batted ball data that is largely out of a pitcher’s control. No team in baseball has a larger gap between their ERA and FIP than the Phillies. In fact, their 1.86 difference is a full run more than the next closest team, the Astros (0.85). It is not a perfect statistic, but it is useful to help make sense of things when results don’t meet the eye test.
The bullpen has the same issues.
- Zach Pop: 3.68 ERA, 3.16 FIP (0.52 E-F)
- Jhoan Duran: 1.35 ERA, 0.76 FIP (0.59 E-F)
- Tim Mayza: 3.00 ERA, 2.27 FIP (0.73 E-F)
- Brad Keller: 4.70 ERA, 3.55 FIP (1.15 E-F)
- Kyle Backhus: 7.71 ERA, 6.37 FIP (1.34 E-F)
- Tanner Banks: 5.40 ERA, 3.46 FIP (1.94 E-F)
- Orion Kerkering: 4.15 ERA, 2.00 FIP (2.15 E-F)
- Jonathan Bowlan: 3.36 ERA, 1.30 FIP (2.56 E-F)
- Jose Alvarado: 10.50 ERA, 2.49 FIP (8.01 E-F!!!)
Phillies pitchers are striking a ton of guys out, the 3rd-highest rate in baseball (26.2%), while at the same time are the 2nd-stingiest staff in terms of walks (6.7%). They also are a top-10 staff in avoiding home runs, with their 0.84 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) tied with the Dodgers’ staff for 8th.
The reason Phils pitchers are giving up so few home runs is because they are inducing more ground balls than any team in baseball (49.9%). They’re also elite at not allowing hard contact. Their hard-hit rate (29.2%), as calculated by Fangraphs, is 3rd-best in the league and their average exit velocity allowed (87.4 mph) is also the best.
To sum up:
- They’re striking out a ton of batters.
- They are walking very few.
- They don’t allow many home runs because they have the highest ground ball rate in the league.
- They are allowing the weakest contact.
This is what you want. You build a staff in order to generate all of these things, which leads to one overriding conclusion.
On the whole, the Phillies have been unlucky.
As a team, the staff has allowed a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .359. Folks, that is insanely high and far and away the worst in baseball, a full 32 points higher than the next-closest team (Houston’s .327). BABIP numbers that high never sustain themselves over the course of a full season. Last year, the Phils’ BABIP was 6th-highest, but only sat at .299.
It’s going to come down.
But one issue that may not correct itself to as large a degree is the defense. Over the first three weeks, the staff has been undone by the worst glove work in baseball.
Their -15 Defensive Runs Saved is dead last and their -6 Outs Above Average is tied for 3rd-worst. They’ve committed 14 errors, 4th-most in MLB. Turner was given a rough error that led to the Cubs’ second run on Wednesday night, but over the last two weeks, we’ve seen the Phils’ defense give away too many outs. This is not a strong defensive team by nature, but early on, they’re making life more difficult than usual for their pitchers.
Now, there’s no sugarcoating Luzardo’s performance on Wednesday night. He gave up a ton of hits and allowed a ton of runs, but his average exit velocity allowed was only 86.9 mph, and he generated a 45.5% ground ball rate against the Cubs. Many of the hits were bleeding grounders and bloopers, although to be fair, the Cubs did square some balls up on him in the 3rd and 5th innings. And there are other issues to be concerned about with him.
Luzardo has long had struggles pitching from the stretch (9.22 career ERA with runners on base), and that problem has only been exacerbated in 2026 (24.55 ERA), and there are other issues, too.
The good news is Luzardo struggled in a similar fashion last season when the Phillies believed he was tipping his pitches, and they fixed it. While that doesn’t appear to be the problem now, Caleb Cotham is one of the best pitching coaches in baseball, and these feel like fixable issues.
As for the rest of the staff, the “back-of-the-baseball-card” numbers should revert to the mean as long as the rest of the underlying data doesn’t change much. The staff has actually been pitching really well, but hasn’t had much to show for it through the first 18 games.
Check out the latest Hittin’ Season podcast, where Justin Klugh and I discussed this and recapped the Phils’ series against the Cubs and their rough start to the season. Powered by WHYY.
